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NFL Week 16 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 12/21/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Russell Wilson Denver Broncos

Saint31-1 has taken a 3-point lead in the Circa Million V. This entry went 5-0 in Week 15 and has 54.5 points at 54-20-1 (73%) on the season. JJarvis117-1 is the lone entry in second place with 52.5 points and 51-21-3 (70.8%), which puts them a half-point in front of one third-place entry, Rdlown-1, who went 3-2 and notched a 50-21-4 (70.8%) and 52 points. There are four entries tied for fourth, among them is Steve Fezzik entry Fezzic-2 with 51.5 points on the season. Meanwhile, my freefall continues. In a season-long football contest, inconsistency is the hobgoblin of aspiring contest cashers. I went 1-3-1 last week. And with three weeks, left there are only 15 points up for grabs. This brings my season-long record to 44-28-3 (62.5%) or 44.5 points on the season. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 15: Tennessee -2.5 (34.5%), Buffalo -2 (32%), Chicago +3.5 (30%), Detroit -4 (29%), LA Rams (-6.5)

The top five consensus picks in the Westgate SuperContest went 3-2 against the number in week 15.  By virtue of 4-0-1 week 14, 2Wong1Wang took control of first place with a 48-21-1 (69.6%) record and 48.5 points on the season. Underground-1, 47-21-1 (69.1%) and SeattlePaddle 45-20-5 (69.2%) are tied for second place with 47.5 points. Maintistoboggan is in fourth place at 46-22-2 (67.3%). My picks went 1-3-1 for a 45-29-1 (63.4%) record on the season. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 15: Buffalo -2 (36.5%), Tennessee -2.5 (36%), Detroit -4 (29.5%), Baltimore -3 (24%), NY Giants +6 (24%)

Despite another 3-2 week in the DraftKings $500 Online Main Event, Bbissick continues to maintain a two-point lead with 53-17 (75.7%) correct. If Bbisick holds serve the entry will win $142,200 grand prize, but with three weeks to go Vgironda, in second place at 51-19 (72.9%), and poised to strike. Or could it be Paychex, who has clawed their way back into the top-3 with a 3-2 record in week 15 and is 50-20 on the season. I went 1-4 and 41-29 (58%) on the season. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 15: Tennessee -2.5 (40.79%), Chicago +3.5 (38.12%), NY Jets +9.5 (32.9%), Buffalo -2 (32.43%) LA Rams -6.5 (22.3%)

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in all three contests, with an aggregate tally of 19-11 (63.3%), 19-10-1 (63%) on the season in this space.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NY JETS (-3) vs. Washington Commanders (+3)
The New York Jets (5-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) host the Washington Commanders (4-10 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) in a game they aren’t even televising in New York. Just kidding.

However, it reminds me of 43 years ago practically to the day and the December 20, 1980, Jets-Dolphins game in Miami. I was in 6th grade, played wide receiver for my town team and wanted to be the next Wesley Walker when I grew up. The Dolphins were installed as 6-point favorites against the 3-12 Jets. Don Ohlmeyer, executive producer of NBC’s NFL telecasts, had decided to replace the announcers in this game with more on-screen graphics. This was not widely announced, and many fans were left confused about what was going on when they tuned into the game and heard a lot of crowd noise. This was the first time (and last) that sports would be televised without announcers until the Royals-Tigers baseball game in 2022.

The point is, for Jets’ fans, it had been a miserable season capped by a demoralizing home loss to the New Orleans Saints (aka the ‘Aints), whose only win was against the Jets the week before. While the Jets finished the 1980 season with an unremarkable 4-12 record and the Miami game was un-remarked by commentators. Funny enough, in his season preview that year, Jimmy, the Greek, the famous Las Vegas betting personality, had said that the New York Jets were a possible Super Bowl contender. Sound familiar?   

Let’s just say last week's trip to South Beach, Florida, was not all salsa dancing and cube libres for ‘Gang-Green’, nor was it a repeat of the 24-17 1980 upset. It was in fact a 30-0 drubbing by the Tyreek Hill-less Dolphins. Jets quarterback Wilson got knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a concussion, and back-up quarterback Siemian underwhelmed going 14/26 for 110 yards, no TDs and 2 INTS. In fact, it was apparent to anyone watching that the Jets are ready for the season to end.

Breece Hall was the Jets leading rusher, which isn’t saying much since he notched 12 yards on six carries. Xavier Gipson tied with Garrett Wilson for 29 receiving yards. These season lows were against a banged-up Miami defense that seemed to find their pass rush behind Bradley Chubb, who had two strip sacks and seven combined tackles.

Washington lost last week at the LA Rams, 20-28, but missed a PAT to preserve the cover for the Rams who allowed back-up quarterback Jacoby Brisset throw two touchdown passes, one to Terry McLaurin and one to Curtis Samuel in the fourth quarter.

This game is going to be ugly. The NFL’s worst offense, won’t field A-A-Ron, but will go against the NFL’s worst pass defense and this probably won’t make one lick of difference. Although, against a common opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Jets were 1-0 and the Commanders were 0-2. In both of their losses, the Commanders managed 31 points, while the Jets scored 20 points. That was Week 6. In the subsequent 10 weeks, the Jets have scored 30 points once against the Texans, but have averaged 10 points per game other than that.

Now the Jets are a 3-point home favorite? Maybe CBS should try broadcasting this game without announcers.

Take the Washington Commanders +3 in all contests

DENVER BRONCOS (-6.5/-6) vs. New England Patriots (+6.5/+6)

It’s a tale of two teams going in the opposite directions to close out the remaining weeks of 2023-24 campaign, as the New England Patriots (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) will play their second consecutive game on the road at Invesco Field at Mile High against the “Orange-Crush’ of the Denver Broncos (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) ) for Sunday Night Football on Christmas Eve.

Believe it or not, the Patriots actually had a 10-7 lead in the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs, but 35 seconds before the end of the half quarterback Patrick Mahomes tossed an 8-yard touchdown to Jerrick McKinnon for the go-ahead score. The Chiefs wouldn’t fall behind again as they beat the Patriots 27-17 and ended their two-game losing streak.

The Broncos got crushed 42-17 as a 4.5-point underdog in the Motor City against a pumped-up Lions team in a game that was never that close. QB Jared Goff threw five touchdowns, and the Lions running game destroyed the Broncos defense. The Broncos scored on their first possession of the second half on the heels of a 44-yard passer interference call that set up a 3-yard touchdown pass from Wilson to Humphrey. Denver was not able to keep pace with the resurgent Lions. They looked more like the Broncos’ from their first five games of the season rather than the team that went 5-1 between October 22-November 26.

This is Denver’s first game back home since November 26 and their win and cover against the Houston Texans. The Broncos have a realistic shot at the playoffs as they close the season with the toothless Chargers at home and then rival the Las Vegas Raiders on the road. But first they’ll have to get past the Patriots.

It’s no secret that Denver coach Sean Payton and New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick are great friends and come from the same Bill Parcells coaching tree. They know each other well, but in this tilt Payton has superior weapons on both sides of the ball, not to mention a significant home field advantage and a possible playoff spot.

Statistically the New England Patriots are one of the worst teams in turnover differential in the NFL at -8, only ahead of the Jets and Commanders, who are league worst at -9. The Broncos are +5 in turnover differential and have recorded 24 total takeaways to the Patriots 14 takeaways. Patriots quarterbacks have thrown 16 interceptions this year, good for second worst in the NFL behind the Raiders and Browns, both of whom have 18 interceptions. The Broncos’ only have eight interceptions on the season, which is the third least in the NFL behind the Ravens and 49ers, with seven interceptions, and the Texans with six. The Broncos do have a tendency to fumble the ball with 11 on the season to the Patriots six fumbles. Finally, the Broncos have the best Special Teams unit in the NFL. 

This game will most likely be the top consensus play in the contests this week, but sometimes the games pick themselves. The Broncos should manage a shut-out in the thin Rocky Mountain air.

Take the Denver Broncos -6/-6.5 in all contests

CIRCA Million V
LA RAMS (-3.5) vs. New Orleans
Cincinatti (-2) vs. PITTSBURGH
Buffalo (-12.5) vs. LA CHARGERS
Green Bay (-4.5) vs. CAROLINA
Detroit (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
Indianapolis (+1) vs. ATLANTA
HOUSTON (+2.5) vs. Cleveland
NY JETS (-3) vs. Washington
Seattle (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville (Pick ‘em) vs. TAMPA BAY
MIAMI (Pick ‘em) vs. Dallas
CHICAGO (-4) vs. Arizona
DENVER (-6) vs. Patriots
KANSAS CITY (-10) vs. Las Vegas
PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. NY Giants

SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. Baltimore

Westgate Resorts SuperContest
RAMS (-4) vs. SAINTS
Bengals (-2) vs STEELERS
Bills (-9.5) vs. CHARGERS
Packers (-5.5) vs. PANTHERS
Lions (-3) vs. VIKINGS
FALCONS (-1.5) vs. Colts
TEXANS (-1.5) vs. Browns
JETS (-3) vs. Commanders
Seahawks (-1.5) vs. TITANS
BUCCANEERS (-1) vs. Jaguars
DOLPHINS (-1.5) vs. Cowboys
BEARS (-4) vs. Cardinals
BRONCOS (-6.5) vs. Patriots
CHIEFS (-10) vs. Raiders
EAGLES (-12.5) vs. Giants
49ERS (-5.5) vs. Ravens

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em
LA RAMS (-4) vs. New Orleans
Cincinatti (-2.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
Buffalo (-10.5) vs. LA CHARGERS
Green Bay (-5) vs. CAROLINA
Detroit (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
Indianapolis (-2.5) vs. ATLANTA
HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. Cleveland
NY JETS (-3) vs. Washington
Seattle (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
MIAMI (-1.5) vs. Dallas
CHICAGO (-4) vs. Arizona
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Patriots
KANSAS CITY (-10) vs. Las Vegas
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) vs. NY Giants

SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. Baltimore

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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