Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NFL Week 15 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 12/14/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Mitch Trubisky Pittsburgh Steelers

There’s been a shake-up in the top spots of the Circa Million V as Saint31-1 has taken over sole possession of the lead, going 4-1 to put this entry at 49-20-1 (71%) on the season and 49.5 points. Rdlown-1 went 4-0-1 for 47-19-4 (71.2%) and took over second place with 49 points. Last week’s leaders, Castlerocker-3 and Fezzic-2, have slipped to third place with two other entries at 48.5 points on the season. Meanwhile, I went 2-2-1 last week. This brings my season-long record to 43-25-2 (62.5%) or 43 points and 138th place. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 14: Cincinnati, pk (35.5%), Detroit, -3.5 (25%), San Francisco -11 (24%), Chicago +3.5 (24%), Philadelphia +3.5 (23.5%)

The top nine consensus picks in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest went 7-2 against the number in week 14, while the top five consensus picks went 5-0. However, none of the leaders went 5-0 in the contest. By virtue of 4-0-1 week 14, 2Wong1Wang took control of first place with a 48-21-1 (69.6%) record and 48.5 points on the season. Underground-1, 47-21-1 (69.1%) and SeattlePaddle 45-20-5 (69.2%) are tied for second place with 47.5 points. Maintistoboggan is in fourth place at 46-22-2 (67.3%). My picks went 3-2 for a 44-26 (63.4%) record on the season, and this moves my entry to 33rd place in the standings. The five consensus picks were 5-0 in Week 14: Cincinnati +1 (36.5%), Chicago +3.5 (34.5%), San Francisco -10.5 (28.5%), Denver +3 (28.5%), Cleveland -3 (25.5%). 

There wasn’t much movement in the standings of the DraftKings $500 Online Main Event, as Bbissick went 3-2 and maintained a two-point lead in first place with 50-15 (76.9%) correct. Vgironda took over second place by going 4-1 last week; good for 48-17 (73.8%). Rounding out the top-three is Carlosguido, who went 5-0 which brings this record to 47-16 (72.3%). I went 3-2 and 40-25 (61.5%) in 189th place on the season and in contention for a cash prize of $1491.93. The five consensus picks were 5-0  in Week 14: Cincinnati 0.5 (41.14%), San Francisco -10.5 (37.90%), NY Jets +3.5 (37.50%), Chicago +3.5 (37.20%), Buffalo +2.5 (27%)

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in all three contests with an aggregate tally of 18-10, 18-9-1 on the season in this space.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5)

The Houston Texans (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) are rife with injuries but will try to get their mojo back as they travel to the Music City to face the Tennessee Titans (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS). It appears that the Texans will have to do so with back-up quarterback Davis Mills, who played the last 6:30 in mop-up duty after C.J. Stroud left the game due to a concussion. Mills was 1 for 5 for four yards and was sacked once for a 3-yard loss. The Texans lost to the Jets last week 30-6, and the Titans pulled out a come-from-two-touchdowns-behind in the last four minutes of the game to upset the Miami Dolphins 28-27 in Miami on Monday night.

While Mills is the Texans’ back-up quarterback, he has started 26 games for the Texans in the past two years. However, gamblers should note that he is 5-20-1 over the last two seasons as a starter. Mills ran the starting offense on Wednesday as Stroud remained in the NFL’s concussion protocol and is likely out for the game against Tennessee.

Meanwhile, the injury bug has hit the Texans’ receivers as well, as leading receiver Nico Collins got knocked out of the Jets game with a calf injury. Collins was at practice on Wednesday but did not wear his helmet during reps and his status is unclear for the game against the Titans. Then there are the two tackles, Laremy Tunsil and George Fant, and defensive end Will Anderson Jr., who did not practice on Wednesday, either. This isn’t a good omen for Houston, who has a 2-4 record straight up and 3-3 against the spread on the road this season.

The Titans are coming off a short week but must be feeling good after beating Miami on the road for their first road win and cover of the season. In fact, the Titans are a different team at home than they are on the road. At home, the Titans are 4-1 SU and ATS, while on the road they are 1-6 SU and ATS.

The Titans have been more balanced on offense by not relying just on running back Derrick Henry to gain yards. Tyjae Spears found his legs and hands against the Dolphins when he notched 89 receiving yards on six catches and 49 yards rushing. Rookie quarterback Will Levis rallied the Titans against the Dolphins and was 23/38 for 327 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He was also sacked one time for a seven-yard loss. 

This game opened with the Titans as a 2.5-point home favorite, with the total listed at 37.5. The weather is supposed to be sunny and mild. The Texans have certainly come down to earth since winning three in a row in November. After this game, the Texans host Cleveland then Tennessee before closing their season at Indianapolis and could quite conceivably go 0-4 to close out the season even if Stroud returns against the Browns.

Take: Tennessee Titans -2.5 in all contests

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1/-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1/+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6 SU, ATS) travel to the Hoosier State to play the Indianapolis Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) on Saturday at 4:30 pm. Pittsburgh is coming off a Thursday night home loss to the New England Patriots, 21-18, as 5.5-point favorites. The Colts return home after a 34-14 drubbing at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals.

This game is another battle of the back-up quarterbacks, and for me I am backing the team with the better back-up. Pittsburgh has Mitch Trubisky, who was unable to complete the comeback against the Patriots last week and never really looked good against the Patriots defense, who played the Steelers tough. It is likely that Trubisky, who was 22/35 for 190 yards and one touchdown and one interception against the Patriots, will start against the Colts.  

The Colts are in second place in the AFC South and are only one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for first place. Quarterback Garder Minshew has been playing well recently and might face a Steelers team without linebackers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, who are both in concussion protocol. Minshew was 26/39 and 240 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Bengals. Minshew also has resurgent wide receiver Michael Pittman, who has at least eight receptions in his last six games and has proven a reliable go-to receiver for Minshew.

While both teams have a chance to make the playoffs, the Steelers schedule only gets harder after this game as they will host the Bengals next week and then play their remaining two games at Seattle and Baltimore, which puts them in must-win mode. The Colts have a much easier path with their next game at Atlanta. They will host Las Vegas on New Years Eve and host Houston for their last game of the season; three winnable games, which means if the Colts can get by Pittsburgh this week, they could end the season 4-0.

Even though the Steelers have won five games in a row in Indianapolis, I am going to fade the Steelers and play on the Colts at home as I think they have more fire under Head Coach Shane Steichen, who is in the conversation for NFL Coach of the Year.

Take: Indianapolis Colts -1.5/-1/-2.5 in all contests

CIRCA Million V
RAIDERS -3.5 vs. Chargers +3.5
BENGALS -3 vs. Vikings +3
COLTS -1 vs. Steelers +1
LIONS -4.5 vs. Broncos +4.5
Falcons -3 vs. PANTHERS +3
BROWNS -3 vs. Bears +3
PACKERS -3.5 vs. Buccaneers +3.5
TITANS -2.5 vs. Texans +2.5
SAINTS -6 vs. Giants +6
DOLPHINS -8.5 vs. Jets +8.5
49ers -12.5 vs. CARDINALS +12.5
RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders +6.5
BILLS -2 vs. Cowboys +2
Ravens -3 vs. JAGUARS +3
Chiefs -8 vs. PATRIOTS +8
Eagles -3.5 vs. SEAHAWKS +3.5

Westgate Resorts SuperContest
RAIDERS -2.5 vs. Chargers +2.5
BENGALS -3 vs. Vikings +3
COLTS -1.5 vs. Steelers +1.5
LIONS -4 vs. Broncos +4
Falcons -3 vs. PANTHERS +3
BROWNS -3 vs. Bears +3
PACKERS -3.5 vs. Buccaneers +3.5
TITANS -2.5 vs. Texans +2.5
SAINTS -6 vs. Giants +6
DOLPHINS -8.5 vs. Jets +8.5
49ers -12.5 vs. CARDINALS +12.5
RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders +6.5
BILLS -2 vs. Cowboys +2
Ravens -3 vs. JAGUARS +3
Chiefs -8 vs. PATRIOTS +8
Eagles -4 vs. SEAHAWKS +4

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em
RAIDERS -3.5 vs. Chargers +3.5
BENGALS -3.5 vs. Vikings +3.5
COLTS -2.5 vs. Steelers +2.5
LIONS -5.5 vs. Broncos +5.5
Falcons -3.5 vs. PANTHERS +3.5
BROWNS -3.5 vs. Bears +3.5
PACKERS -3.5 vs. Buccaneers +3.5
TITANS -2.5 vs. Texans +2.5
SAINTS -5.5 vs. Giants +5.5
DOLPHINS -9.5 vs. Jets +9.5
49ers -13.5 vs. CARDINALS +13.5
RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders +6.5
BILLS -2.5 vs. Cowboys +2.5
Ravens -3 vs. JAGUARS +3
Chiefs -9.5 vs. PATRIOTS +9.5
Eagles -3.5 vs. SEAHAWKS +3.5

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers