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NFL Week 14 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 12/7/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Jake Browning Cincinnati Bengals

CastleRocker-3 retains a half-point lead over Fezzic-2 with 46 points. Both entries were sub .500 in Week 13, going 2-3, while Saints31-1 went 4-1 to move into third place in the CIrca Million V contest. Sodaman-2 and Anfeleyes1073-1 shared the first prize of the Third Quarter by hitting 90% over the last five weeks at 18-2. Meanwhile, I went 1-4 last week. This brings my season-long record to 41-23-1 (63%) or 41.5 points and 80th place. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 13: San Francisco -2.5 (37.8%), Denver +3.5 (34%), LA Rams -3.5 (28.5%), Detroit -4 (27%), Pittsburgh -5.5 (25.5%)


There is a four-way tie for first in the Westgate SuperContest at 44 points. SeattlePaddle went 3-2 in Week 13 to move their record to 42-19-4, another new leader entry is Mantistobaggon, who went 4-1 last week, along with Imthecapt-1 and 2Wong1Wang. My picks went 2-3 for a 41-24 (63.4%) record on the season and this moves my entry to 24th place in the standings. With five weeks left in the contest, it is clear that any of the top-50 entries could win first place. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 13: San Francisco -2.5 (49.5%), Denver +3.5 (37.5%), Detroit -4 (30%), LA Rams -3.5 (28.5%), Pittsburgh -5.5 (27%) 

Bbissick went 5-0 and maintained their stranglehold on first place with 47-13 (78.3%) correct online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em contest. Ckfong88 moves to second place with 44-16 (73.3%). Vgironda has managed to stay in a tie for second place by going 4-1 last week and a blistering 22-3 over the last four weeks.  I went 2-3 and 37-23 (61.7%) in 153rd place on the season and in contention for a cash of $1687.63. The five consensus picks were 2-3  in Week 13: 49ers -2.5 (49.72%), Broncos +3.5 (35.45%) Panthers +5.5 (34.72%), Steelers -5.5 (27.35%), Jaguars -8.5 (25.90%)

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in all three contests with an aggregate tally of 17-9, 17-8-1 on the season in this space.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-1/-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1/+2.5)

The NFC South first-place Atlanta Falcons (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) will host the second-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7, 7-5 ATS) on Sunday as a 2.5 point-chalk. However, this number was quickly bet down to -1.5 points with the Falcons as the home favorite. 59% of the handle is on the Falcons, while the 39-point total has ticked slightly upward to 39.5. The Falcons are 4-2 at home but only 2-4 against the spread. The Buccaneers are 2-4 on the road but 5-1 against the number on the road. Sharps have been backing the Buccaneers in this tilt since the number has dive-bombed from -2.5 to -1.

The battle for first place is real. Weirdly enough if the Saints and Buccaneers win on Sunday, there will be a three-way sub .500 tie for first place in the NFL South. However, the last time these two teams played in Tampa Bay, the Falcons came away as a three-point victor on October 22. The good news for the Falcons is that they are 3-0 in the division and Falcons QB Ridder is 2-0 against the Buccaneers. So why is the number dropping against the Falcons?

Looking at the injury report, the Falcons have practiced this week without linebacker Nate Landman (knee), defensive linemen David Onyemata (ankle) and offensive linemen Drew Dalman (ankle) and Kaleb McGary (knee).

Since these teams last met, Buccaneers' rookie defense pass rusher Yaya Diaby has 5.0 sacks in the last six games. The Buccaneers look to be healthier than they have in the past since it looks like they will be joined by linebacker Lavonte David (groin) and rookie SirVocea Dennis (illness), who practiced Wednesday. Linebacker Devin White (foot) and cornerback Jamel Dean (ankle/foot) did not participate. David and White were out last week, forcing Neal to play inside linebacker, so monitor the injury report to see their status before betting this game.
 

For me there are two main reasons I lead toward the Falcons in this tilt; the suck factor. Todd Bowles sucks as a head coach, and Baker Mayfield sucks as quarterback. The Falcons will win this game on ball control. The Falcons behind Bijon Robinson can run the ball. He can also catch, since he has three receiving touchdowns. This is good for the most receiving TDs on the Falcons. The one question I have for the Falcons QB Ridder is his predilection to turn the ball over. He has six fumbles and eight interceptions on the season and has been sacked 28 times, which puts the onus on the OL.

However, this weekend, with first place on the line, I really like the Falcons to win and cover the spread at home. I see a similar score of 16-13 or 17-14 on Sunday.  

Take: Atlanta Falcons -1/-2.5 in all contests

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+1) vs Indianapolis Colts (-1)

Fresh off their overtime win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts (7-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) travel to the Cincinnati Bengals (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS), who shocked the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night winning 34-31 as 8.5-point underdogs.

While it’s tempting to back the home team in this match-up, the Bengals will have to regroup and face a resurgent Colts team that has won four games in a row and boast a great running game and a back-up quarterback who puts his team in position to win games.

Indeed, Colts QB Gardner Minshew has passed for 2,284 yards and 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He is averaging 207.6 yards a game and 62.8% completion rate. Minshew has 52 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He also has a receiver who is a ball-hog in Michael Pittman, Jr., who has 889 receiving yards and four touchdowns and 87 catches on 127 targets, which is good enough for fourth in the NFL. I can see Pittman Jr. putting up big numbers against a bad Bengals secondary.

Last week, Bengals back-up quarterback Browning surprised everyone and helped the Bengals win their first MNF game since 1990. In the effort, Browning threw for 354 yards and one touchdown and ended the Bengals three-game losing streak. And as good as the Bengals looked on offense in their Siberian Tiger white color rush uniforms, they’ll have to continue playing above their abilities when they host the Colts.

The main problem for the Bengals is that their defense is really bad. The Bengals rank close to last in the NFL in every statistical category and will need another huge outing from Browning to overcome this deficit. The Colts are on the road for the second week in a row. And despite the Colts being better than the Bengals in most statistical categories, I feel like the Bengals win this conference game at home in the bad weather. 
 
Take the Bengals +1 in all contests

CIRCA Million V
FALCONS  -2 vs. Bucs +2

Colts Pick'em BENGALS Pick'em

Texans -3.5 vs. JETS +3.5 

49ERS -11 vs. Seahawks +11

Vikings -3 vs. RAIDERS +3

CHARGERS -2.5 vs. Broncos +2.5

CHIEFS -1 vs. Bills +1.5

COWBOYS -3.5 vs.”. Eagles +3.5

DOLPHINS -13 vs. Titans  +13

Packers -6.5 vs. GIANTS+6.5

STEELERS -5.5 vs. Patriots +5.5

BROWNS -3.5 vs. Jaguars +3.5

RAVENS -7.5 vs. Rams +7.5

Lions -3 vs. BEARS +3

SAINTS -5 vs. Panthers +5

Westgate SuperContest
PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. New England (+6)
NEW ORLEANS (-5) vs. Carolina (+5)
BALTIMORE (-7) vs. LA Rams (+7)

Indianapolis (-1) vs. CINCINNATI (+1)
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. Jacksonville (+3)

Detroit (-3.5) vs. CHICAGO (+3.5)

ATLANTA (-1) vs. Tampa Bay (+1)

Houston (-3.5) vs. JETS (+3.5)
SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) vs. Seattle (+10.5)

Minnesota (-3) vs. LAS VEGAS (+3)

KANSAS CIty (-1.5) vs. Buffalo (+1.5)

LA CHARGERS (-3) vs. Broncos (+3)

DALLAS (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia (+3.5)

Green Bay (-6.5) vs. NY GIANTS (+6.5)

MIAMI (-13.5) vs. Tennessee (+13.5)
DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. New England
NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) vs. Carolina
BALTIMORE (-7.5) vs. LA Rams

Indianapolis (-0.5) vs. CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

Detroit (-3.5) vs. CHICAGO

ATLANTA (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay

Houston (-5.5) vs. JETS
SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) vs. Seattle

Minnesota (-3.5) vs. LAS VEGAS 

KANSAS CIty (-2.5) vs. Buffalo

LA CHARGERS (-2.5) vs. Broncos

DALLAS (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia 

Green Bay (-6.5) vs. NY GIANTS

MIAMI (-13.5) vs. Tennessee
*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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