NFL Week 13 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/30/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh Steelers

CastleRocker3 went 5-0 in Week 12 in the Circa Million V contest and has taken over the lead with a 43-15-2 (74.1%) record that is good for 44 points. This entry is a half-point ahead of Fezzic2, 42-15-3 (73.3%), who went 4-1 for 43.5 points on the season. Last week’s leader, Ottomatic-1, went 2-3 and fell to a three-way tie for fourth place. Matador-3 has sole possession of third place thanks to a 4-1 week, which brings their record to 41-16-3 (71.9%). I am in 19th place as I went 3-2 last week. This brings my season-long record to 40-19-1 (69.4%) or 40.5 points. Sodaman2 and Angeleyes1073 are tied for the lead in the Third Quarter in-season contest at 18-2 and Slumdog1 leads the Booby Prize last place race with 14 points. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 12: Bills +3.5 (31%), Steelers -1 (26.5%), Rams pk (25.5%), Texans +2 (23%), Baltimore -3.5 (22%)

2Wong1Wang took down $50,000 by going 24-6 during weeks 7-12 of the Westgate SuperContest 6-week in-season contest. They were a half-point ahead of Yugo77 and Presence2, who split second place for $17,500 each. Ottomatic rounded out the top-3 with 23 points and a $5000 payday. However, for the first time in a few weeks, there is a new leader. 2Wong1Wang went 4-1 in week 12 for 43 points and edged Ottomatic-1's 42.5 points for first place. I was one point short of cashing the week 7-12 contest with a 22-8 record over the last six weeks. This week my picks went 3-2 for a 39-21 (66%) record on the season, and this moves my entry to 10th place in the standings. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 12: Rams +1 (32%), Chargers +3.5 (25%), Patriots -3 (24.5%), Jaguars -1.5 (24%) Steelers -1.5 (23%)

Bbissick went 2-3 and had their first losing week since Week 7, but managed to retain the lead in Week 12 with 42-13 (76.4%) correct online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick‘em. Vgironda has cut the lead to two-points by going 4-1 last week and a blistering 18-2 over the last four weeks. Paychex dropped out of the top-3, down to eighth place by going 1-4 and 39-16 (70.9% in Week 12). I went 3-2 and 35-20 (64.4%) in 93rd place on the season and in contention for a cash of $1777.70. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 12: Steelers -0.5 (38.41%), Bills +3.5 (35.36%), Rams -0.5 (33.57%), Lions -7.5 (25.14%), Jaguars -1.5 (19.05%)

Last week I was 2-0 on my picks in all three contests with an aggregate tally of 16-8, 16-7-1 on the season in this space.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Detroit Lions (-4/-4.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4/+4.5)

Is it possible that the Detroit Lions (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) had their Thanksgiving meal before playing the Green Bay Packers last Thursday? Because it looked like Lions had an L-Tryptophan hangover the entire game.

This week the Lions will travel to the New Orleans’ Saints (5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS). The Saints are somehow tied for first place in the sub .500 NFC South, despite losing their last two games. Saints’ head coach Dennis Allen and Detroit head coach Dan Campbell know each other well. They were both at Texas A&M in the 1990s and both served under Saints’ head coach Sean Payton for five years until 2021, when Campbell went to Detroit and Allen took over the team when Payton resigned.

The holiday week wasn’t great for either the Lions or the Saints; both teams lost at home. The Saints managed to get into the red zone five times against the Falcons and came away with only field goals. Two of those possessions ended in turnovers, one of which was a David Carr pick-6 which cemented the 24-15 victory for the Falcons.

Green Bay burned Detroit from the very first play of the game: a 53-yard Jordan Love touchdown bomb to Christian Watson that caught the Detroit secondary napping. Even worse for Detroit was Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a career high three fumbles, and one was returned for a touchdown in the first quarter.

The Lions also had major problems converting on fourth downs. They went for it five times on fourth down and only converted on the last touchdown drive of the game. However, that wasn't the worst call by HC Campbell. Down by nine points, and on their own 23, Campbell called for a fake punt, which didn't fool Green Bay, and three plays later Love threw another touchdown to Watson to put the game out of reach for the Lions.

This was the second time in two home games that the Lions were trailing in the fourth quarter. Against the Bears, they rallied from a 12-point deficit to win 31-26. However, against Green Bay, the magic was gone.

The Saints defense is tied for fourth in the NFL with 20 takeaways and will look to feast on Goff’s fumblitis. On the other side of the ball, however, the Saints rank 29th in the NFL in Red Zone touchdowns. They only score a touchdown 42 percent of the time inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This week the Saints defense might be without two of their starters this week DE Cam Jordan and linebacker Pete Werner, so check the injury report on Friday.

This game falls into this system play: How does a home dog of 3.5 points or more do against a team that was a home favorite of more than six-points and lost the previous week? Last week the Lions were upset as a 7.5-point home favorite and this week the Saints opened at +3.5, and it was quickly bet up to +4.5. In this scenario, home dogs have only covered the number 23 percent of the time, which gives the Lions a 77% chance of covering the spread. I’ll follow that up with one last nugget; the Saints are 0-4 ATS at home this year.

Take the Detroit Lions -4/-4.5 in all contests

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)

The Arizona Cardinals (2-10 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) travel to the confluence of the Allegheny, the Monongahela, and the Ohio rivers to take on the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4 SU, ATS) at 1 pm on Sunday. This game opened as the Steelers as a 6.5-point home chalk but was quickly bet down to -5.5.

Something had to give for the offensively challenged Pittsburgh Steelers, so they fired Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada and days later Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high of 278 yards and amassed 421 yards in total offense. The Steelers managed only 16 points in their road victory against the Bengals, but new OC Eddie Faulkner found success targeting the middle of the field -- something that Canada inexplicably failed to do. Canada’s approach of throwing only to the sidelines made Pickett's job as hard as possible.

The Steelers should be able to put up more points this week against Arizona. Arizona has given up the second most points in the NFL this season. Arizona’s defense has given up 21 points in the first half in their last two games; two-weeks ago at Houston and last week at home against the Rams. So, if you like betting the first half lines, Steelers laying the points should be the play in this game.

Arizona running back James Connor played at the University of Pittsburgh and for the Steelers and will look to have a big day as he returns home. This will be his first time back to Pittsburgh since 2021, and HC Mike Tomlin knows how talented Connor is at running back. Connor missed a third of the season with injuries but has rushed for 526 yards on 104 attempts in eight games

Beyond Connor, Arizona HC Jonathan Gannon does not have a lot of weapons on offense. Granted, last week quarterback Kyler Murray ran in for a two-yard touchdown and the ensuing two-point conversion gave the Cardinals an early 8-7 lead. Murray was 27/45 for 256 yards and 1 TD in his third game back from an ACL tear in his right knee. Beyond them there isn’t much to talk about.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-6 on the road this season and have lost eight of their last nine games and will have to travel across the country for an early start time. It’s expected to be rainy and in the 50s with wind about 11 mph at game time, and this definitely helps the Steelers as they face a terrible dome team. Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU/ATS at home this year. So, if you think the Steelers will win, then they will cover the spread if this trend holds.

Take PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5.5 in all contests

CIRCA Million V
Lines Coming Soon

Westgate SuperContest

COWBOYS (-9) vs. Seahawks (+9)
Chargers (-5.5) vs. Patriots (+5.5)
Lions (-4) vs. Saints (+4)
Falcons (-2.5) vs. JETS (+2.5)
STEELERS (-5.5) vs. Cardinals (+5.5)
BUCCANEERS (-5.5) vs. Panthers (+5.5)
Colts (-1) vs TITANS (+1)
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. COMMANDERS (+9.5)
TEXANS (-3.5) vs. Broncos (+3.5)
49ers (-2.5) vs. EAGLES (+2.5)
RAMS (-3.5) vs. Browns (+3.5)
Chiefs (-6) vs. PACKERS (+6)
JAGUARS (-8.5) vs. Bengals (+8.5)

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em

DALLAS (-8.5) vs. Seattle
Miami (-9.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Indianapolis (-0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Atlanta (-2.5) vs. NY JETS
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. Arizona
Detroit (-4.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
LA Chargers (-5.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. Denver
TAMPA BAY (-5.5) vs. Carolina
San Francisco (-2.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
LA RAMS (-3.5) vs. Cleveland
Kansas City (-5.5) vs. GREEN BAY
JACKSONVILLE (-8.5) vs. Cincinnati

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS
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NFL Week 13 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

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