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NFL Week 12 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/22/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Tommy DeVito New York Giants

Happy Thanksgiving contest players! Whether you celebrate this holiday with turducken, gooducken, McRib, or spatch-cock smoked turkey, the NFL has three games on Thursday with a side of Dolphin on Black Friday. A gentle reminder that if you want to play any of these “holiday” games in the contests, remember you’ll have to lock in all your picks at the same time. If you are picking the Black Friday game and no Thanksgiving games, the deadline will be 10 a.m. (PT) on Friday.

The pressure is on for Ottomatic-1, who is in first place in both Circa Million V and Westgate Resorts SuperContest after going 3-2 in week 11 and notching a 40-14-1 (74.1%) and 40.5 points on the season (Ottomatic-1 is also five points ahead of the pack in the winner take all, $5000 per entry SuperContest Gold). Fezzic-2 trails the leader by only a half-point and is in position to overtake the lead in week 12. His entry went 3-2 and is in second place with 39.5 points and is 38-14-3 (74.5%) on the season. I am in 19th place as I went 3-2 last week. This brings my season-long record to 37-17-1 (69.4%) or 37.5 points. The five consensus picks were 2-3 in Week 11: Browns, pick ‘em, (31.5%), Rams +1 (31.5%), Dolphins -13.5 (30%), Chiefs -2.5 (28%), Broncos -2.5 (26%).

The Westgate SuperContest ends the second of three 6-week contests in Week 12 with several entries vying for the $50,000 in-season first prize. Meanwhile, overall leader Ottomatic went 3-2 and 40-14-1 (40.5 points) good enough for 74.1%. Imthecapt-1 went 2-3 against the number for a 38-15-2 (71.7%) record ATS and 39 points. 2Wong1Wang moved into a second-place tie with another 4-1 record in week 11. This entry is 39-16 and has been the most dominant over the past two weeks. My picks went 3-2 for a 36-19 (66%) record on the season and this moves my entry to 13th place in the standings. The five consensus picks were 0-4-1 in Week 11: Rams +1 (33%), Dolphins -13.5 (32%), Chiefs -2.5 (30%), Broncos -2.5 (28%), Cardinals +5 (27%).

Bbissick went 5-0 in Week 11 and has a stranglehold on the lead with 40-10 (80%) correct online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em. Paychex remains in second place, having utilized the skip week in week 11. Vgironda moved into third place after going 5-0, 40-55 (72.7%). Bmarks3 dropped out of the top-3, going 1-4 and 34-16 (68%). I went 3-2 and 31-18 (64.4%) in 93rd place on the season and in contention for a cash prize of $1834.38. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 11: Rams -0.5 (34.20%), Bills -6.5 (34.05%), Dolphins -13.5 (33.05%), Broncos -2.5 (29.75), Cardinals +5.5 (28.22%).

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
 

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in all three contests, with an aggregate tally of 14-8, 14-7-1 on the season in this space.
New England Patriots (-3.5/-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5/+3)

I know the New York Giants (3-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) are bad this year, but are they home-dawgs to the New England Patriots (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS) bad? The Giants, playing their first game at home after three weeks in a row on the road, will try to build off their 31-19 upset win, and season sweep,  at the Washington Commanders last week, while the Patriots are hoping they’ve fixed their offensive woes over the bye week.

I live about 45 minutes in moderate traffic from Gillette Stadium and get a daily dose of Patriots panic. Word coming from radio and television programs devoted to all things Patriots have all reported that quarterback Mac Jones has lost the locker room.  As of now, head coach Bill Belichick has not named a starting quarterback for the game. However, the drop-off from Jones to back-up Zappe is large, and I think it will take Belichick a lot to make this change. I look at this move as Belichick's gamesmanship; he is dangling a carrot in front of Jones for the bye week. It's essentially a challenge to help Jones focus and make better decisions. And perhaps teach Jones to throw the ball out of bounds instead of taking the sacks, which happen every game.

In Germany, two weeks ago, I picked the Colts to win and cover because I absolutely knew that he would throw a crucial interception. The Patriots were inside the Red Zone in the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter, driving it in for the go-ahead score and the win and cover when Mac Jones (15-20, 170 yards, I INT) tossed it directly to the Colts’ Julian Blackmon and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Patriots lost 10-6, and Belichick benched Jones for the final drive. Back-up quarterback Bailey Zappe managed to throw an interception in garbage time.

Last week, the Giants were +6 in the turnover margin against the Washington Commanders thanks to three interceptions thrown by Washington quarterback Sam Howell. The Giants quarterback for the remainder of the season is now undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito, who earned his first win in his second start. The fun fact bandied about the media this week is that the 25-year-old QB still lives in his parents’ home.

DeVito's quarterback rating was 137.8 on 18/26 and 246 yards for 9.5 yards per attempt and three touchdowns to no interceptions. Contrast that with Patriots quarterback Mac Jones' effort against the Commanders. Jones was 24/44 for 220 yards with 5.0 yards per attempt and 1/1 touchdown to interception ratio and a QBR of 66.5 In the 17-20 loss to Washington. I don’t believe that one bye-week is enough to cure all the problems I have seen on both sides of the ball for the Patriots. Unless Belichick does not allow Jones to pass, I am betting on the player prop of anytime interception for Mac Jones.

Home cooking may be exactly what the Giants need after a month on the road to build upon their first win In three games. My one concern is that the injury bug has hit the Giants again, as leading wide receiver Darius Slayton did not practice and running back Saquon Barkley is questionable for the game, so keep an eye on the injury report. Brian Daboll’s Giants should secure the cover if not the outright win.

Take NY GIANTS (+3.5/+3) in all contests

DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5/-1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (+2.5/+1.5)

The Cleveland Browns (7-3 SU, ATS), who have not lost in November, will attempt to cover their fifth game in a row against the Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) when they travel to Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.  The Broncos had their four game ATS covering streak broken on Sunday night in a come from behind 21-20 victory as a 2.5-point home chalk against the Minnesota Vikings.

Last week, the Browns announced that starting quarterback Deshawn Watson was out for the season, and the opening line dropped from Steelers +4 to Steelers +2.5 on the news. Some shops had the Steelers as low as +1.5. Rather than start PJ Walker, head coach Kevin Stefanski went with back-up quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who started his second game of the season. He rallied the Browns for a clutch last drive that set up a Dustin Hopkins 34-yard field goal for the 13-10 win and cover with .02 seconds in the fourth quarter.

If I look beyond the feel-good moment on Sunday and assess the quarterback, this is what I see: DTR has suited up four times this year for the Browns, and his stats are illuminating. So far, Thomson-Robinson has completed 55 of 80 passes for 295 yards and no touchdowns to four interceptions. He averages 3.0 yards per pass play. If there is one bright spot, it is that the seven times has been from the pocket, he averages 6.2 yards a carry. He has not been able to score a rushing touchdown. These are not great stats for the rookie from UCLA, who was drafted in the fifth round in 2023. The NFL is a quarterback first league. No matter if DTR or PJ Walker starts, the Browns are going to have a hard time finding points this week.

The Broncos had no business beating the Vikings on Sunday night. Quarterback Russell Wilson couldn’t muster a touchdown in the first nine drives, which resulted in five field goals for the Broncos. The Vikings defense played well for most of the game, until when they needed to play really well. Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton caught a 15-yard touchdown with 1:05 left in the game. This was good for his eighth touchdown on the season and second overall in the NFL behind Miami’s Tyreek Hill. Vikings bettors needed the Broncos missing the 2-point conversion to preserve the cover.

The Broncos offense has scored at least 20 points in their last three games. The Broncos have beaten Kansas City 24-9, Buffalo 22-24 on the road, and Minnesota 21-20 in their last three games. It seems like Denver has righted their defensive issues from the 1-5 start to the season. Quarterback Wilson is playing better thanks to wide receiver Sutton creating scoring opportunities, and this week the Broncos defense will host an offensively hobbled Cleveland Browns team.
CIRCA Million V
LIONS (-7.5) vs. Packers (+7.5)
COWBOYS (-12) vs. Commanders (+12)
49ers (-7) vs. SEATTLE (+7)
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. JETS (+9.5)
Patriots (-3) vs. GIANTS (+3)
Jaguars (-2) vs TEXANS (+2)
Steelers (-1.5) vs BENGALS (+1.5)
COLTS (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (+2.5)
TITANS (-3.5) vs. Panthers (+3.5)
Saints (pk) vs. FALCONS (pk)
BRONCOS (-1.5) vs. Browns (+1.5)
Rams (pk) vs. ARIZONA (pk)
Kansas City (-8.5) vs. RAIDERS (+8.5)
EAGLES (-3.5) vs. Bills (+3.5)
Ravens (-3.5) vs. CHARGERS (+3.5)
VIKINGS (-3.5) vs. Bears (+3.5)

Westgate SuperContest
LIONS (-7.5) vs. Packers (+7.5)
COWBOYS (-12.5) vs. Commanders (+12.5)
49ers (-7.5) vs. SEATTLE (+7.5)
Dolphins (-9) vs. JETS (+9)
Patriots (-3) vs. GIANTS (+3)
Jaguars (-1.5) vs TEXANS (+1.5)
Steelers (-1) vs BENGALS (+1)
COLTS (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (+2.5)
TITANS (-3.5) vs. Panthers (+3.5)
Saints (-1) vs. FALCONS (+1)
BRONCOS (-3) vs. Browns (+3)
Rams (-1) vs. ARIZONA (+1)
Kansas City (-9) vs. RAIDERS (+9)
EAGLES (-3) vs. Bills (+3)
Ravens (-3.5) vs. CHARGERS (+3.5)
VIKINGS (-3.5) vs. Bears (+3.5)

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em

DETROIT (-7.5) vs. Green Bay
DALLAS (-11) vs. Washington
San Francisco (-6.5) vs. SEATTLE
MIAMI (-10) vs. New York Jets
New England (-3.5) vs. NY GIANTS
Jacksonville (-1.5) vs. HOUSTON
Pittsburgh (-1) vs. CINCINNATI
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay
TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs. Carolina
New Orleans (-1) vs. ATLANTA
DENVER (-2.5) vs. Cleveland
LA Rams (-1) vs. ARIZONA
Kansas City (-9.5) vs. RAIDERS
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
Baltimore (-4.5) vs. LA CHARGERS
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Chicago  

Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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