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NFL Week 11 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/16/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

Ottomatic-1 is in first place in both Circa Million V and Westgate Resorts SuperContest. In the Circa Million V, Ottomatic went 5-0 in week 10 and notched a 36-12-2 (75%) record and 37 points on the season. Last week’s leader, BigDumbOne-1, went 1-3-1 and dropped to seventh place. Las Vegas legendary handicapper and back-to-back SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik (Fezzic-2) went 3-1-1 and is in second place with 36.5 points and is 35-12-3 (74.5%) on the season. I am 2.5-ponts behind the leader in 14th place as I went 3-2 last week. This brings my season-long record to 34-15-1 (69.4%) and 34.5 points. The five consensus picks in Circa Million V were 3-1-1 in Week 10: 49ers -3 (33%), Steelers -3 (31.5%), Lions -3 (29.4%), Cowboys -16.5 (27%), Saints -2.5 (25.5%).


The Westgate SuperContest has a new leader as Ottomatic went 5-0 and logged a 37-12-1 (37.5 points) record. This entry is hitting a blistering 75.5% on the season. Last week's contest leader, Imthecapt-1, went 1-3-1 against the number for a 36-12-2 (75%) record ATS and 37 points. 2Wong1Wang is two points behind the lead but in sole possession of third place with 4-1 record in week 10 and 35 points. My picks went 3-2 for a 33-17 (66%) record on the season and this keeps me in 17th place in the standings after ten weeks. The five consensus picks in the SuperContest were 3-1-1 in Week 10: 49ers -3 (35%), Lions -3 (28%), Cowboys -16.5 (27.5%), Broncos +7.5 (24.5%), Saints -2.5 (24%).

Bbissick went 4-1 in Week 10 with their only loss on the Saints -2.5 and remains in the lead with 35-10 (77.8%) correct online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em. Paychex remains in second place with a 4-1 record and 14-1 over the last three weeks to move to 38-12 (76%) just ahead of Rgriff70 37-13 (74%). Bmarks3 dropped out of the top-3 going 1-4 and 34-16 (68%). I went 4-1 and moved to 29-16 (64.4%). The five consensus picks in DraftKings were 3-2 in Week 10: Lions -2.5 (37.75%), Jaguars +3.5 (33.28%), Cowboys -16.5 (30.23%), Saints -2.5 (29.49%), Buccaneers -0.5 (28.29%).

Last week I was 2-0 on my picks in all three contests and moved to 13-7, 13-6-1 on the season in this space.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5/-7) vs. NY Jets (+6.5/+7)

The good news for the Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) is that this AFC East division game is not on Monday Night. Oddsmakers opened the Bills as 8-point home chalk, but that number was quickly bet down to 6.5 at most shops as the New York Jets (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) travel to Orchard Park for the second consecutive road game to take on the Bills for the second time this season. This is definitely a revenge match for the Bills. Monday nights have not been kind to the Bills, who lost their first game of the season to the Jets 22-16 in overtime on MNF. In that game, the Bills managed to blow a ten-point half-time lead and give up a 65-yard punt return for a touchdown. Despite losing Aaron Rodgers for the season, the Jets, behind quarterback Zach Wilson, were able to stun the Bills in the Meadowlands. Bills Quarterback Josh Allen threw three interceptions and the Bills had four turnovers in that game compared to one turnover by the Jets. 

Last week the Bills faced the Denver Broncos at home on MNF and lost 24-22 in a game plagued by penalties and turnovers. Allen threw two interceptions to one touchdown and looked awful. The Bills as a team turned over the ball four times, while the Broncos basically took care of the ball and only had one turnover. The Bills in their two primetime games have turned over the ball eight times and Allen has thrown five interceptions and only two touchdowns. The Bills wasted no time firing OC Ken Dorsey after the Denver game. However, Josh Allen hasn’t been the same since Brian Daboll left for the Giants HC position. 

Joe Brady was promoted to OC for the Bills, who are in second place in the AFC East, when they host the third place Jets. The Jets have the No. 1 overall defense since Week 5 and benefit from the Bills being on short rest. For this game, you are going to want to monitor the weather as there is the possibility of 15-20 mph winds and a 20% chance of rain. I think this game screams under 40-point total. Even though this will likely be a low scoring affair, the Bills should be able to grind out enough points to cover the number against Zach Wilson and the Jets.

Take BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5/-7) against the Jets in all contests   

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-13.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5)

After firing head coach Josh McDaniels, the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) have won two consecutive games as they head to South Florida to take on the AFC East leading Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS). If you are looking to use this game in a football contest keep in mind that their last two wins for the Raiders came against the NY Giants (30-6) and the NY Jets (16-12) at home. In fact, when you look at the Raiders’ record, they’ve only lost two games in their last six games.


This week the Raiders will face the type of offensive juggernaut that they haven’t seen since McDaniels was the head coach and they lost at Detroit 26-14. The Raiders also lost at the Chicago Bears the previous week. When you think about it, both the Raiders and Dolphins have similar narratives; they beat bad teams but can’t win against good teams. The question for Dolphins backers is: Are the Raiders a good team or a bad team?

One metric I’ve been using when handicapping the NFL this year is backing teams that cover when they win and don’t cover the spread when they lose. The Miami Dolphins are such a team. Sporting a 6-3 record SU and ATS, if you think Miami will win this game, they will most likely cover, but if you think they will lose, then chances are good they won’t cover the game.

Miami is coming off a bye-week after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 14-21 in Germany. On the road in their last three games this year against good teams (it could be argued that Buffalo was good when they beat the Dolphins), the Dolphins are 0-3 SU and ATS. They lost to the Eagles by 14 points and Buffalo by 28 points. However, at home against bad teams, Miami has been a force beating New England by 14 points, Carolina by 21 points, the NY Giants by 15 points and Denver by 50 points. 

One main problem for the Raiders this week, other than a west coast team traveling to the east coast for a 1 p.m. game, is that their secondary is banged up when they can ill afford it. The Raiders picked-up second-year cornerback Jack Jones off of waivers from the New England Patriots. Jones will be reunited with the Raiders’ interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who actually coached Jones in high school and college. This will shore up the Raiders’ secondary who lost Amik Robertson to a concussion against the NY Jets last week. However, when Jones was defending against the Dolphins in their Oct. 29 loss, Jones was part of a busted coverage that led to a 31-yard touchdown score.  

 

Take MIAMI DOLPHINS (-13.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) in all contests.

CIRCA Million V

RAVENS -3.5 vs. Bengals +3.5

Steelers Pick'em vs. BROWNS Pick'em

TEXANS -4.5 vs. Cardinals +4.5

Chargers -3 vs. PACKERS +3

COMMANDERS -8.5 vs. Giants +8.5

JAGUARS -7 vs. Titans +7

LIONS -8 vs. Bears +8

DOLPHINS -13.5 vs. Raiders +13.5

Cowboys -10.5 vs. PANTHERS +10.5

49ERS -11.5 vs. Bucs +11.5

Seahawks -1 vs. RAMS +1

BILLS -7 vs. Jets +7
BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Vikings +2.5

CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles +2.5

Westgate SuperContest

RAVENS -3.5 vs. Bengals +3.5
BROWNS -1 vs. Steelers +1
TEXANS -5 vs. Cardinals +5
Chargers -3 vs. PACKERS +3
COMMANDERS -9 vs. Giants +9
JAGUARS -7 vs. Titans +7
LIONS -7.5 vs. Bears +7.5
DOLPHINS -13.5 vs. Raiders +13.5
Cowboys -10.5 vs. PANTHERS +10.5
49ERS -11.5 vs. Buccaneers +11.5
Seahawks -1 vs. RAMS +1
BILLS -7 vs. Jets +7
BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Vikings +2.5
CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles +2.5

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em

RAVENS -3.5 vs. Bengals +3.5
Cowboys -10.5 vs. PANTHERS +10.5
BROWNS -1.5 vs. Steelers +1.5
LIONS -8.5 vs. Bears +8.5
TEXANS -5.5 vs. Cardinals +5.5
DOLPHINS -13.5 vs. Raiders +13.5
COMMANDERS -9 vs. Giants +9
Chargers -3.5 vs. PACKERS +3.5
JAGUARS -6.5 vs. Titans +6.5
49ERS -11.5 vs. Buccaneers +11.5
BILLS -6.5 vs. Jets +6.5
Seahawks -0.5 vs. RAMS +0.5
BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Vikings +2.5
CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles +2.5

Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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