Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NFL Week 10 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/9/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Joshua Dobbs Minnesota Vikings

Entry BigDumbOne-1 moved into first place from third place in week 9 Circa Million to share the lead with WhalesBet-2 at 33.5 points. Both entries went 4-1 with both teams losing to New Orleans -8.5 against Chicago. Vegas legend and two-time back-to-back SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik (Fezzik-3) is in third place with 33-points and went 4-1 last week. Seven entries are within a point of the leader, and I am 2.5-ponts behind the leader in 21st place as I went 4-1 last week with my only loss coming at the hands of the offensively challenged Carolina Panthers. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 9: Cleveland (-7.5), Cincinnati (-1.5), NY Jets (+3.5), Las Vegas (-2), Houston (-2.5)

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

The Westgate SuperContest has concluded two in-season contests; the Week 1-9, and Week 7-9 contests. Contest leader Imthecapt-1 won the Week 1-9 in season contest for $75,000 with 35-9-1 record while Taft69-1, Ottomatic-1 tied for second place for $30,000 with 32-12-1 records. In the three-week, Weeks 7-9 contest, nine entries tied for first place with 13-2 records and a $4,444.45 payout. Full disclosure: I was one of the nine winners. You can see the list of the winners at the SuperContest webpage, but it’s no surprise that Imthecapt1 also shared a piece of the three-week contest went 4-1 against the number for a 35-9-1 (79.5%) season record ATS and 35.5 points. Taft69-1 (4-1) and Ottomatic (5-0) are tied for second and 3-points behind the leader 32-12-1 (72.7%) My picks went 4-1 for a 30-15 (66.7%) record on the season and 17th place in the standings after nine weeks. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 9: Cincinnati (-2), Cleveland (-8), Seattle (+6), Philadelphia (-3), Minnesota (+5)

Like me, Bbissick utilized the skip week in Week 9 and remains in the lead with 31-9 (77%) record online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em. Paychex moved into second place with a 5-0 record and 10-0 over the last two weeks for a 34-11 (75.6%) which was good enough to go ahead of Bmarks3 33-12 (73.3%) and rgriff70 33-12 (73.3%). The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 9: Browns (-8.5) 49.28%, Bengals (-1.5) 40,00%, Commanders (+3.5) 27.48%, Chiefs (-1.5) 25.47%, Jets (+3.5) 25.03%

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in two of three contests since I utilized a bye week in DraftKings contest and moved to 11-7, 11-6-1 on the season in this space.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+1)*

It is said that there are only two certainties in life; death and taxes. Well I’d like to add a third certainty; that Patriots quarterback Mac Jones will throw a crucial interception at a pivotal moment in-game, preserving a Patriots loss. And when the Patriots lose, they do not cover the spread. Win or lose in Frankfurt, Germany, New England Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick won’t be done dirty by owner Robert Kraft and get fired. But getting a win will be difficult this week as the New England Patriots (2-7 SU, ATS) are listed as the home team against the Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) on the Rhine River in the beautiful city of Frankfurt, Germany.


This game opened with the Patriots as a 1.5-point road chalk. The second this line was posted, sharps were all over the Colts taking points. The line moved quickly through zero and rested with Indianapolis as a -1.5 favorite; effectively a 3-point move. This is most likely due to the fact that anyone who has watched the Patriots will tell you they don’t pass the eye-test. 

 

Last week, the Patriots’ safety Kyle Duggar intercepted Washington quarterback Sam Howell in the Red Zone just before the end of the first half and stopped a drive, which would have put the Commanders up 17-14. The stop, however, preserved the Patriots tenuous lead going into half-time. The Patriots’ anemic offense had somehow exploded for 14 points in the second quarter-could this be a portend for the second half? Perhaps the Patriots could use the defensive momentum and build on their offensive success to bring the game home. Ah, nope….

In the third quarter the Patriots defense gave up 10-points. In fact, KJ Hendry sacked Patriots QB Mac Jones and forced a fumble but that was called back due to a questionable roughing the passer. This play shouldn’t have been called, but for me it is another fundamental mistake by Jones; rather than throwing the ball out of bounds Jones would inexplicably rather take the sack.

Perhaps the Patriots could use the defensive momentum going into the second half? Or not. I think that the Patriots have lost their defensive heart-and-soul with linebacker Mathew Judon’s season ending injury. Since he went out the defense has looked like they've lost their identity. Despite this the Patriots defense didn’t allow the Commanders to score in the fourth quarter. Trailing 20-17 in the waning minutes of the game, the Patriots converted a fourth-and-four but a few plays later Mac Jones did what you expect Matt Jones to do; he threw an interception. Jartavius Martin’s interception sealed the win for the Commanders and left Patriots Nation wondering why Jones always throws an interception when the game is on his shoulders.

The Indianapolis Colts went into Carolina last week and absolutely dominated the Panther on both sides of the ball. However, it was the defensive prowess that shined in this game. The Colts defense feasted upon rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Kenny Moore got not one, but two, pick-sixes that were the difference in the game.

I had expected the Panthers, not the Colts, to be the defensive boss against Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew who has a problem controlling turnovers on the road. The Colts also hit a 57-yard field goal in the game and those 17 points were the difference between a one score game and possible cover. It was a hard game for me to stomach as I had backed the Panthers in all my contests.

This week neither team is leaving early for Germany. Both teams plan on leaving for Germany on Thursday after practice and look at this game as just another road game. Handicapping these teams, I am looking squarely on the quarterback play of Mac Jones. He leads the NFL with nine interceptions and although he wasn’t technically sacked last week, he did manage to throw a crucial interception late in the game.

On the other side of the ball, I look at the Colts HC Shane Steichen to kill the Patriots with one-two punch of their running game. I see the Colts controlling the clock and the ball in a game that most likely won’t be very exciting to watch. This week I am following the money and look to the Colts to dominate the time of possession and scoreboard.

When the Patriots lose, they don’t cover the spread and this week I see the Colts saying auf weidersehn to the Patriots’ chances of making the playoffs.

Take the Indianapolis Colts (+1, -1.5) in all contests.

MINNESOTTA VIKINGS (+2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

The feel-good story of the week has to be quarterback Joshua Dobbs coming off the bench and bringing the Minnesota Vikings a come from behind win at the Atlanta Falcons last week. In the first quarter back-up Vikings QB Jaren Hall got injured and was put into concussion protocol. Enter Dobbs who only threw the go-ahead six-yard touchdown pass with .22 seconds remaining in the game.

Earlier that week, Dobbs was traded from the Arizona Cardinals to the Vikings after the Minnesota quarterback Kurt Cousins went down with a season ending injury six days before the game against the Falcons. Despite not knowing the playbook and having HC Kevin O’Connell explain each play into his headset within 15-seconds of the play, Dobbs was able to move the ball 75 yards in 11 plays over 1:46 and beat the Falcons 31-28 in his first game as a Viking. For his effort Dobbs was named NFC offensive player of the week.

This week the Minnesota Vikings (5-4, SU, 5-3-1 ATS) will try to win their fifth game in a row as they host the New Orleans Saints (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS). The Vikings play at home for the first time in three weeks and only their second home game in five weeks. The Vikings last home win was a dominant 22-17 against the San Francisco 49ers three weeks ago, but that was with Cousins at the helm. The question remains will Josh Dobbs be able to win his first game as starting quarterback for the Vikings.

The NFC South leaders, the New Orleans Saints have strung together two consecutive wins; last week at home against the Chicago Bears 24-17 and at the Indianapolis Colts 38-27. The Saints have seemed to have found a formula for success; staunch defense and power offense. However, before their mini-win streak the Saints previously lost four of five games.

Last week, the Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week as he had two interceptions and forced and recovered a fumble against the Chicago Bears.

I think the Saints’ defense, which allowed Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent 70 yards rushing last week will have to contain the upwardly mobile Joshua Dobbs. And if they are able to manage to contain Dobbs, it looks like the Vikings will get back wide receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring), who has been on injured reserve, but was limited in practice on Wednesday. But monitor Friday’s injury report for confirmation if he will play.

It seems like the Saints quarterback Derek Carr is much more comfortable in the Saints’ offense. Carr has four TDs to no interceptions in the past three games and since October 8 Carr has eight TDs to two INTs. The Saints are ranked 13th in the NFL in total offense with 343.8 yards per game but will face a Vikings defense which is ranked 11th on yards per play at 5.3. 

The Vikings seem to have turned adversity into advantage and do boast one of the toughest home stadiums in the NFL. I see the Land of One Thousand Lakes giving QB Dobbs the homecoming he deserves and this week I'd bet that the Vikings Pro Shop has his Jersey available for purchase. 
Take Minnesota Vikings +2.5 in all contests.

CIRCA Million V

BEARS -3.5 vs. Panthers +3.5

Colts -2* vs. PATRIOTS +2

RAVENS -6.5 vs. Browns +6.5

BENGALS -6.5 vs. Texans +6.5

49ers -3 vs. JAGUARS +3

Saints -2.5 vs. VIKINGS +2.5

STEELERS -3 vs. Packers +3

BUCS -1 vs. Titans +1

Falcons -2 vs. CARDINALS +2

Lions -3 vs. CHARGERS +3

COWBOYS -16.5 vs. Giants +16.5

SEAHAWKS -6 vs. Commanders +6.5

Jets Pick'em vs. RAIDERS Pick'em

BILLS -7 vs. Broncos +7

Westgate SuperContest

BEARS -3.5 vs. Panthers +3.5
Colts -1* vs. PATRIOTS +1
RAVENS -6 vs. Browns +6
BENGALS -6.5 vs. Texans +6.5
49ers -3 vs. JAGUARS +3
Saints -2.5 vs. VIKINGS +2.5
STEELERS -3.5 vs. Packers +3.5
Titans -1 vs. BUCCANEERS +1
Falcons -1.5 vs. CARDINALS +1.5
Lions -3 vs. CHARGERS +3
COWBOYS -16.5 vs. Giants +16.5
SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Commanders +6.5
Jets -1 vs. RAIDERS +1
BILLS -7.5 vs. Broncos +7.5

DraftKings Pick ‘em
BEARS (-4.5) vs. Panthers
Colts (-1.5) vs. PATRIOTS
STEELERS (-3.5) vs Packers
Saints (-2.5) vs VIKINGS
BENGALS (-6.5) Texans
BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs. Browns
TAMPA BAY (-0.5) vs. Titans
49ers (-3.5) vs. JAGUARS
Detroit (-2.5) vs. CHARGERS
Falcons (-1.5) vs. CARDINALS
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) vs. Commanders
COWBOYS (-16.5) vs Giants
Jets (-1.5) vs. RAIDERS
BILLS (-7.5) vs. Broncos

Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

*Game played in Germany

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers