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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 10/11/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 6 Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams

Surviving an entire NFL season is no easy task, with 3/4 of entries usually eliminated by this stage of the season. It requires patience, planning, and a little bit of luck along the way. We have managed to survive another week in the gauntlet, as the Miami Dolphins made it look easy against the New York Giants. The biggest losers of the week were the Commanders (-6.5), Bills (-5.5), and Ravens (-4.5), who all lost as substantial favorites. Five of my top 6 plays from last week won, as I correctly identified the upset potential for the Jaguars and Steelers. Here are this week’s best survivor picks, ranked from most to least confident.

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Miami Dolphins (-13.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Dolphins offense is unstoppable, and there is no way Bryce Young and the Panthers will get their first win of the season. Tua Tagovailoa is proving to the league that when healthy, he is among the best signal callers in the NFL. The Dolphins are at home and will be eager to keep their lead atop the AFC East. This one will be sweat free.

Thursday Night: Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) Over Denver Broncos

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs may not be quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect over the last few seasons, but they are still head and shoulders better than the Broncos. After falling to the Jets at home, Denver is in a dire situation at 1-4, and it won’t be getting any better in Week 6. In this primetime matchup, the Chiefs will hammer home the fact that they are still one of the most complete teams in the league.

Sunday Night: Buffalo Bills (-14) Over New York Giants

The Bills will look to keep pace with the Dolphins in the AFC East, and any slip ups against the Giants will be costly. Despite the recent injuries on defense, the Giants have been unable to get anything going on offense and haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 9.5 quarters of football. Whatever version of Josh Allen we see will be good enough to get the job done. Another safe pick this week.

LA Rams (-6.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

I don’t like targeting divisional matchups in a survivor pool, but I have no choice but to select the Rams this week. At home, LA has already shown that they cannot be written off just yet this season, as the return of Cooper Kupp has them suddenly wielding one of the best tandems of wide receivers with Puka Nacua. The Cardinals have shown life. However, against a motivated Rams squad, they will fall short once again. Considering the Rams don’t have any easier matchups left, they are a great pick in Week 6.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) Over Cleveland Browns

The 49ers are now the Super Bowl favorites and won’t let the Browns take their undefeated record. Brock Purdy is making full use of the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal, while the San Fran defense is looking as dominant as ever. The 49ers are almost always a great pick to win, and Week 6 against the identity-less Browns is no exception.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) Over Tennessee Titans

The Ravens may have lost to the Steelers in Week 5, but it was due to a few dropped passes rather than a poor brand of football. Lamar Jackson did all he could, but his receivers dropped balls handed to them on a silver platter. These mistakes are unlikely to occur twice in a row, and there is no other reason to doubt that the Ravens cannot take care of business on the road. The Titans run game will be stopped by the stout Ravens defense, and Ryan Tanehill will not have an answer.

Detroit Lions (-3) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Lions march into Florida with a 4-1 record and the 2-game division lead that goes with it. Jared Goff has finally begun to hit his stride in the NFL, and the Lions remain one of the hottest teams in the league. Not to take away from what Baker Mayfield has done in Tampa, as a 3-1 record is nothing to scoff at, but we saw how the Bucs handled the Eagles earlier this season. The Lions are much more competitive than the teams Mayfield has ousted, and there will be no surprises this week. Lions stay hot.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) Over New York Jets

This is rather low on my list, as I don’t think the Eagles are a good pick this week. They are heavy favorites over the Jets. However, on the road, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an upset. Zach Wilson turned up against the Chiefs a couple weeks ago. And if it were not for some questionable late calls, the Jets could have won that game outright. There is no doubting the strength of the Eagles lines, and Hurts is playing some of the best football of his career, but there is no reason to waste a pick on Philadelphia in this tough week with plenty of other favorites to choose from.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) Over Seattle Seahawks

The Bengals got a crucial victory in Week 5 and will be eager to get back to .500 against the Seahawks. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connected for 3 touchdowns and 192 yards in their victory over Arizona, and they will be able to keep the momentum up against the Seahawks. With an energetic home crowd cheering them on, the Bengals remind the league that they aren’t quite done yet.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) Over Chicago Bears

The Bears finally snapped their 14-game losing streak, but they’ll be headed right back to the L column in Week 6. Justin Fields and co. had a very effective game against the Commanders. However, when Kirk Cousins is matching them drive for drive, his nasty tendency to turn the ball over will flare its ugly head. The loss of Justin Jefferson certainly hurts, but there is no doubt in my mind that the Vikings can stay just as effective on offense. With their defense turning a corner, Minnesota keeps their season alive with another victory on the road.

Houston Texans (+1.5) Over New Orleans Saints

The Saints may have been able to make quick work of the freefalling Patriots, but a hungry CJ Stroud and the rest of his Texan teammates will pull off a minor upset in Week 6. The injury to Derek Carr has made a mediocre offense even worse. And against a solid opposing offense, the Saints won't be able to keep pace.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) Over New England Patriots

The Raiders still have plenty to prove despite their Monday Night victory over the Packers, but a favorable matchup against New England will provide them a chance to even up their record. The Patriots have lost by a combined 69 points in the last two games. And while they are unlikely to get blown out against a generous Raiders defense, they will drop their 3rd straight.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

Divisional games always provide an extra little bit of motivation for both teams. And with top spot in the AFC South on the line, I expect this one to go right down to the wire. The Colts have been playing solid football, regardless of who is at quarterback, and will look to avenge their only double-digit loss of the season. Jacksonville will be returning home after a couple weeks in London and could be a bit rusty heading into this matchup. While they are still my pick to win, there are better options on the board.

LA Chargers (+2) Over Dallas Cowboys 

The Cowboys got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football at the hands of San Francisco. And while the Chargers have an equivalent offense, their defense is much more forgiving. Dak Prescott turned the ball over 3 times on Sunday, and his tendency to choke in primetime will be his downfall against the Chargers. A rested LA squad will use what limited home field advantage they have to edge out the Cowboys for a crucial victory.

Washington Commanders (+2.5) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Commanders got blown out by the Bears on Thursday but are good enough to right the ship against the Falcons. A previously formidable defensive front has taken a step back this season, but a run-heavy offense from Atlanta will allow them to get back in head coach Ron Rivera’s good graces. Desmond Ridder had the best game of his career in the Falcons Week 5 victory over Houston. However, if the Falcons open up the playbook too freely, the Commanders secondary will make them pay.

Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: LA Rams Over Arizona Cardinals

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins

Status: Alive

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