NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Advice and Predictions
Week 2 is in the books, and we stay alive. The NFL avoided any massive upsets as the 5.5-point underdog Seahawks were the biggest outright winner of the week. Favorites went 11-5 straight up and 5-8-3 ATS, as the bookies absolutely nailed the Week 2 lines. Our top 4 picks from last week were the Bills, Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles, all of which won, but the Giants certainly made it a nailbiter. Two weeks down, 16 weeks to go. Here are the NFL Week 3 survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.
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Dallas Cowboys (-12) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Cowboys are a force to be reckoned with and are my most confident pick of the week. Dak Prescott has been quietly effective thus far in the season, and the defensive unit the Cowboys roll out have allowed just 5 points per game thus far. The Giants and Jets are certainly not among the league’s best teams, but they are still better than the lowly Cardinals. I would be shocked if the Cowboys lose.
Kansas City Chiefs (-13) Over Chicago Bears
The Chiefs took care of business against the Jaguars in Week 2 and face a much easier task as the Bears roll into town for Week 3. Justin Fields looks absolutely lost as the Bears signal caller, and there is no doubt in my mind the Chiefs will take care of business. Considering the difficult schedule the Chiefs are tasked with dealing with this season, I will happily use them up as heavy favorites here. Their easiest games remaining are a home game against the Raiders, and road games against the Patriots, Jets, and Packers. These teams have much more upset potential than the Bears, so don’t be afraid to lock in the Chiefs in Week 3.
Baltimore Ravens (-8) Over Indianapolis Colts
The Ravens took care of the Texans at home in the season opener and will have no issues against the Colts in their second home game. Lamar Jackson is among the elite quarterbacks in the league, and their stout defense will always have their back. The injury to Anthony Richardson for the second straight week is worrying, and the Colts may opt to throw this game away and heal up their future star. Ravens win with ease.
Thursday Night: San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) Over New York Giants
The Giants were extremely close to losing to the Cardinals in Week 2, while the 49ers continue to look like the team to beat this season. While I’m very confident the 49ers will win, primetime matchups always add an extra dimension, which has me worried. However, the gulf in class between these two squads will still result in a 49ers win; it just may not be as comfortable as expected.
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) Over Denver Broncos
In Week 2, the Broncos had a 21-3 lead against the Commanders, found themselves trailing 35-24 with less than 2 minutes to go, managed to get a hail mary 50-yard touchdown as time expired, then missed the 2-point conversion. This team is in absolute disarray, while the Dolphins are clicking on all cylinders. A once formidable Broncos defense is in danger of getting torn apart by the league’s hottest offense, and Russell Wilson and the Broncos have no answer on offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) Over Houston Texans
The Jaguars should have no problem swatting aside the Texans, but divisional matchups always bring some extra intensity. A budding Texans squad will be licking their lips at the chance to go into Jacksonville and get a victory, but the Jaguars are too strong on both sides of the ball. They may not have won against the Chiefs, but a solid defensive performance will allow them to feel confident they have what it takes on both sides to compete with the league’s best. The Texans are far from that, and the Jaguars will get the win.
Seattle Seahawks (-6) Over Carolina Panthers
If you’re looking to use up a mediocre team in Week 3, look no further than the Seahawks. The Panthers offense looked lost against the Saints, as they fell to 0-2. In Detroit, the Seahawks put on a show in an overtime thriller, taking down the Lions with Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the game. Geno Smith is far more developed and composed compared to Bryce Young, and that will be the difference maker. The Seahawks are a risky play but could pay dividends in the second half of the season.
Monday Night: Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles are a solid bet to take down Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football, as few teams in the league can match their grit in the trenches. Jalen Hurts and his secure offensive line has been able to consistently move the football in the early stages of the season, and the 2-0 Buccaneers don’t scare me. They were able to take advantage of weak opposition, and Baker Mayfield will have no such luck under the bright MNF lights. Eagles move to 3-0.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) Over Cleveland Browns
The Titans may be underdogs in Week 3, but they will have no problem ousting the ailing Browns. Nick Chubb is the most critical member of this offensive unit. And considering the struggles Watson has had, the Browns will make mistakes and lose this game. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans took down the Chargers in overtime to move to 1-1, further cementing Tannehill as a solid quarterback option. He doesn’t do anything crazy, but he consistently finds ways to win football games.
Monday Night: Cincinnati Bengals (-2) Over LA Rams
The status of Joe Burrow is the only reason the Bengals aren’t near the top of the list, as I don’t see a world where the Bengals fall to 0-3 with a healthy Burrow. The Bengals receivers have failed to meet lofty preseason expectations, but a visit from the Rams will give them a chance to right the ship. The Rams may have looked decent in the opening games, but an aging defense and unproven wide receivers still leave them vulnerable against the proven Bengals.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) Over Washington Commanders
It may be surprising to see the Bills all the way down here, but they haven’t shown me enough to warrant a high pick on them this week. They may have beaten the Raiders at home in Week 2, but a road trip to an invigorated Commanders stadium will be a different test. Eric Bieniemy has injected life into a stale Washington offense, and a formidable defensive line may cause Allen to throw the game away. Beware of the Bills in Week 3.
New Orleans Saints (+2) Over Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love may have gotten off to a solid start, but a stingy Saints defense will cause real trouble for him. The Saints haven’t given up a touchdown yet this season other than a meaningless garbage time TD against the Packers. Their offense is tricky to slow down, and their defense never takes a snap off. The Packers threw the game away against the Falcons and will make one critical mistake to seal their fate in Week 3.
Detroit Lions (-3) Over Atlanta Falcons
The Lions lost a thriller to the Seahawks in Week 2 and won’t disappoint their home crowd again. The Falcons rely on a brutal run game to grind opponents to dust. And once they get the lead, they rarely look back, hence their 2-0 start. However, in this matchup, I expect the Lions to get off to a hot start, force the Falcons to open up the playbook, and get 2 second half picks to seal the game. Whoever scores first wins in this one, and I expect the Lions to do so.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) Over Las Vegas Raiders
It’s hard to trust an offense as anemic as the Steelers, but it’s also hard to fade a defense as dominant as theirs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders score single digits in this matchup, and still win, but a few big plays from Najee Harris and George Pickens will be enough to push the Steelers over the line. It won’t be pretty, but these are the games the Steelers win.
New York Jets (+2.5) Over New England Patriots
The Jets solid defense was expected to head to the Super Bowl on the back of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but now they’ll have to do the heavy lifting. Mac Jones and the Patriots will be unable to take advantage of a reeling Jets team, as Zach Wilson looks like the better quarterback of the two. However, putting your survivor pool life in the hands of Wilson at this stage of the season would not be a wise move.
Minnesota Vikings (PK) Over LA Chargers
The oddsmakers have no idea who is going to win this one, and frankly neither do I. Both these teams were expected to be playoff locks, but one of the two will be 0-3 after this week. I expect it to be the Chargers, as their horrendous defense cannot stop anything. The best receiver in the league is at home and could easily drop 150+ yards and lose. However, I expect Justin Jefferson to get double teamed all night long, opening up holes for his teammates to exploit. We all saw how the Chargers did against Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins in Week 1. And unless they can outscore their defensive issues, the Vikings will get their first win of the season.
Survivor Play of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs Over Chicago Bears
Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills
Status: Alive
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