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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 16: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 12/20/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 16 Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

There are just 3 weeks to go in NFL survivor pools, and the number of surviving entries is dwindling. Last week, we had a sweat-free victory, as the Las Vegas Raiders made easy work of the Chargers, winning 63-21. Our other top 3 choices in the Chiefs (-9.5), 49ers (-13.5), and Rams (-6.5) all cruised to victory, in what was a solid week for most survivor pool entries. The Eagles were the biggest favorite to lose, at a mediocre (-4), as most of the favorites took care of business with playoff positioning on the line. As the season winds down, the safe and available teams have been reduced, but there are still a few solid options available in Week 16. Here are the survivor pool picks, ranked from most to least confident.

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Buffalo Bills (-12) Over Los Angeles Chargers

The Bills have won back-to-back games over the Chiefs and Cowboys and should have no problem pushing the win streak to 3 when they visit LA. Josh Allen has been playing smart football, as the Bills have leaned heavily on their run game in their victories. The Chargers poor defense, combined with the fact they are forced to throw Easton Stick under center, will result in a comfortable Bills win.

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) Over Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are coming off a monstrous 63-point performance, but expecting lightning to strike twice, at the daunting Arrowhead Stadium, is a tall task. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have shown cracks, but they are still the defending champions, and they will be able to sweep aside their division rivals. The Raiders may be able to keep this one within the margin. However, if you’ve been saving the Chiefs for some late season heroics, now is the time to pull the trigger when they welcome the Raiders to Arrowhead.

Philadelphia Eagles (-10) Over New York Giants

I’ve been saving the Eagles for the late season games, and now is the perfect opportunity to use the defending NFC champions. Jalen Hurts has lost 3 straight games after going 29-3 over his previous 32 starts, and a visit from the Giants is the perfect way to get back on track. New York has nothing to play for. And while the divisional matchups will always bring a little extra intensity, the Eagles cannot afford to lose this game. A healthy Hurts and a punishing run game will be enough to push them over the edge, and they will be my official selection this week.

Detroit Lions (-3) Over Minnesota Vikings

The Lions have the chance to secure their first NFC North title in franchise history and have the opportunity to do it on the home turf of the defending divisional champions. The Vikings season was derailed when Kirk Cousins went down with injury. And while Joshua Dobbs was a nice distraction for a few weeks, they will stand no chance against a hungry Lions team. Dan Campbell has instilled a winning mentality in Detroit, and a dominant defensive front will be eager to get their hands on Nick Mullens. Detroit will roll to a double-digit win and are an easy survivor pool pick this week.

Denver Broncos (-6.5) Over New England Patriots

I’ll happily fade the Patriots on a weekly basis, and a quietly confident Broncos team will not let the basement dwellers spoil their late season playoff push. Russell Wilson has all he needs to pick apart the Patriots defense. And as long as Denver plays turnover free football, I struggle to imagine the Patriots offense consistently moving the ball down the field.

LA Rams (-4) Over New Orleans Saints

These two 7-7 teams square off on Thursday night. And at home, the Rams will gut out a tight victory. The Saints offense isn’t good enough to compete with competent teams. And without a once strong defense to fall back on, they will struggle to win football games. Matthew Stafford still has most of his pieces that went to the 2022 Super Bowl, and the Rams veteran talents will manage this massive primetime showdown and secure the victory. Derek Carr has an impressive home primetime record. However, when he’s under the brightest lights on the road, he often falls short.

Indianapolis Colts (+1) Over Atlanta Falcons

Despite their underdog status, the Colts are a solid option in Week 16. Gardner Minshew has done a great job since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson, and it’s hard to be confident the Colts would be where they are without him. Across the field, Arthur Smith turned to Desmond Ridder, then Taylor Heinicke, then back to Ridder. He clearly has no confidence in his signal caller. And, honestly, why should he? Regardless of his ‘backup QB’ status, Minshew will pick apart the Falcons defense, forcing Atlanta to play from behind and throw the football. As soon as they stop running the ball, the Falcons often taste defeat.

Chicago Bears (-4) Over Arizona Cardinals

I know almost all of you still have the Bears left, and if you’ve used the other top dogs, they are a solid choice at home against the Cardinals. Justin Fields has the ability to single handedly win football games. And unless there is yet another 4th quarter collapse, the Bears will send Soldier Field home happy. The Cardinals have no reason to try and win. And with the Bears allowing the Panthers to do their tanking for them, they’ll keep their foot on the gas late in the season.

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) Over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have struggled against the league’s top teams, while making quick work of the bottom feeders. There is no doubt which category the Cowboys belong in. And without a healthy Tyreek Hill for Tua Tagovailoa to throw to, Miami will struggle to keep pace. The Cowboys need to prove to the league, and more importantly, themselves, that they can win on the road. After being run into the ground in Buffalo, they won’t have to worry about a lack of free aerial balls to contend for against the Dolphins. It won’t be comfortable, but I’m confident the Cowboys gut out a victory by any means necessary.

Green Bay Packers (-5) Over Carolina Panthers 

The Panthers got their second win of the season against Atlanta last week, but they’ll be unable to make it back-to-back wins against Green Bay. While this isn’t as much of a home run as it looks, Jordan Love and the Packers will do just enough to get the win. I don’t have much faith in them on the road, but a last second field goal will be enough to push them over the line. Like most weeks, fading the Panthers is usually a safe pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) Over Jacksonville Jaguars 

Baker Mayfield has earned your trust with your survivor pool life, and the Bucs will refuse to relinquish their precarious top spot in the NFC South. A solid pass protection has kept Mayfield safe and allowed him to find his reliable receivers like Godwin and Evans. Jacksonville has been hit with injuries at the worst possible time, and their once wide margin atop the AFC South has evaporated. With Trevor Lawrence looking unlikely to suit up, the Bucs are a solid sleeper choice to set yourself apart in Week 16.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Seahawks are coming off a last second win against the Eagles and will be able to carry their momentum into Week 16. Whether it’s Geno Smith or Drew Lock under center, the Seahawks have two solid QB options while the Titans have none. Without an edge in defense, it’s hard to imagine the Titans halting the Seahawks momentum, as Seattle has much more to play for at this stage of the season.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

There is no reason to play with fire in this one, as the AFC leading Ravens are more than capable of pulling off the upset. However, the 49ers are untouchable at the moment and will probably find a way to get it done. Their plethora of offensive weapons will give even a stout Ravens defense issues, and Baltimore lacks the reliable receiving corps to fire back.

Washington Commanders (+3) Over New York Jets

The Commanders have lost 5 straight games. So, while it may seem strange to trust them, they are still better than the Jets. New York will not be getting Aaron Rodgers back this week. And with Zach Wilson under center, even a poor Commanders defense can find joy in New York. There are better choices on the board, but if you’re desperate, the Commanders should snap their losing streak with a nervy Week 16 win.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) Over Houston Texans

Even without CJ Stroud going the other way, it’s hard to trust the Browns on the road to get the win. Joe Flacco has stepped in admirably. However, as more recent tape on him becomes available, defenses will have all the tools they need to slow the veteran down. It’s not my most confident pick, and I assume many remaining entries will turn to Cleveland this week, making them an even better choice to fade.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) Over Cincinnati Bengals

It’s hard to predict which Steelers team you will see on a weekly basis. They’ve been able to pull out wins they had business doing so, but they also lose very winnable games. Jake Browning has had a solid start to his Bengals tenure, but he will eventually drop off, and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion it could be on the road against Pittsburgh.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Over New York Giants

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders

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