NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 15: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 12/13/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 15 Maxx Crosby Las Vegas Raiders

If you survived last week’s massacre, you are probably one of the few lone survivors remaining in your pool. Four of the 6 biggest favorites from Week 14 lost outright, as the Dolphins (-14.5), Packers (-6.5), Steelers (-6), and Texans (-5.5) all lost outright to vastly inferior opposition. We managed to avoid the Steelers in our selections last week, but the Texans and Dolphins were 2 of our top 4 picks, with the victorious 49ers and Ravens rounding out the best selections. In Week 15, the safe, available options are limited, but there are still some quality options on the board, and here are your Week 15 survivor pool picks, ranked from most to least confident.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) Over New England Patriots

The Chiefs should have no problem taking their frustration from recent weeks out on the lowly Patriots. Don’t let a solid performance from Bailey Zappe in Week 14 against the woeful Steelers distract you from the dumpster fire in New England. They should be tanking, and if they go down early to the defending champions, a late comeback feels very unlikely.

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers are on the road, in a divisional matchup, which is the only reason they are not top of the list. They should be able to roll over their inferior opposition, but this is a game the Cardinals have had circled on their calendar for months, so there may be a little extra pep in their step as they try to play spoiler. Ultimately, the 49ers will prevail, but a shaky first half will have survivor pool players sweating this pick.

LA Rams (-6.5) Over Washington Commanders

If you haven’t used the Rams yet, Week 15 is the perfect time to do so. The Commanders defense will struggle to slow down a healthy Rams offense, which has scored 30+ points in 3 straight games. Washington’s offense will give them a chance, but a last ranked passing defense will see Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have a field day against the secondary. A few big plays from the Rams, combined with a lack of stops from the Commanders, will see the Rams keep their playoff dreams alive.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) Over Seattle Seahawks

The Eagles were thumped by the Cowboys and 49ers in the last 2 games, but a trip to Seattle will see them get back on track. Jalen Hurts has been a shadow of his former self, but a generous Seattle defense will not be able to make enough stops to get a precious victory. The Eagles defense has been a concern, but an injured Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III will be eaten alive by a motivated Eagles defensive line.

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) Over New York Jets

The Dolphins blew a late lead against the Titans, but they still have the offensive weapons needed to prevail in this divisional game. The Jets offense couldn’t be more inconsistent, and they will be unable to take advantage of a reeling Dolphins defense. This one will quickly turn into a shootout, and the Dolphins would love nothing more than a big offensive performance from Tua Tagovailoa.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) Over LA Chargers

The Raiders will be my official selection this week, as they are getting the Chargers at the right time. Easton Stick will be thrown under center for LA, with Justin Herbert on the shelf for the rest of the season. We haven’t seen enough of Stick to write him off just yet, but the lack of first team snaps in practice throughout the season will see the Chargers struggle to consistently move the ball. The Raiders have their own offensive issues, but a surging defense will be able to give Aidan O’Connell short fields, and valuable opportunities to put points on the board.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Ravens needed overtime to best the Rams, but they still got the job done. In what promises to be a tight matchup, I fully trust the Ravens to find a way to win this game. Inspired play from Lamar Jackson hasn’t caught the attention of the mainstream media, but a primetime showing in front of the nation will get him back in the spotlight. Trevor Lawrence is hobbled, and the Ravens defense will show no mercy against the rising NFL talent.

Cleveland Browns (-3) Over Chicago Bears

This is a crazy amount of recency bias. The Bears may have been able to best the playoff-bound Detroit Lions in Week 14, but that will not hide the holes they have on both sides of the ball. The Browns, with Joe Flacco at QB, are just good enough to get this home win in Week 15. A strong secondary will force Justin Fields to tuck the ball more than he wants to, and I’m expecting his fumble issues to be a major factor in deciding the victor. Ultimately, the Browns are a solid choice in a tricky Week 15 slate.

Dallas Cowboys (+2) Over Buffalo Bills

The Cowboys may be underdogs when they head to Buffalo, but Dak Prescott and co. will make this line look ridiculous with a dominant road win. The Bills were able to best the Chiefs, keeping their playoff hopes alive, but a visit from the joint NFC leading Cowboys will spoil the party. Dallas is better equipped on both sides of the ball, and a heavily injured Bills defense will have no means of stopping Prescott when he gets going on long, sustained drives.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) Over Carolina Panthers

In a similar vein to the 49ers-Cardinals matchup, tanking teams bring their A game to divisional matchups, and the Carolina Panthers would love nothing more than to play spoiler at home against Atlanta. However, they lack the tools on offense to do so, and a punishing Falcons run game will chew up the clock, while putting points on the scoreboard. Bryce Young has not been dealt a favorable hand in Carolina, and the misery will continue as he sits on the sidelines watching the Falcons drive the ball down the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) Over Green Bay Packers

All season long, Jordan Love will look like an MVP candidate one week, before looking like a reincarnation of Carson Wentz the next. The Tampa Bay offense gives Baker Mayfield all the protection he needs to make accurate throws down the field and will be a huge difference maker in this matchup. The Packers offensive options are in the infirmary, while the Buccaneers still have plenty of meaningful football to play, sitting atop the NFC South at 6-7. A loss will effectively eliminate the Packers from playoff contention, not to take away from promising moments for Jordan Love in his first complete season.

New Orleans Saints (-6) Over New York Giants

I’m not eager to step in front of Tommy DeVito and a motivated Giants team. However, when it is all said and done, the Saints will find a way to prevail. Their versatile offense has been able to handle any curve balls thrown their way, and they will do so once again when they welcome the Giants to the Superdome. The Cinderella story surrounding DeVito will eventually end. And while the Giants will keep it respectable, their passing game will be shut down by the Saints secondary.

Houston Texans (+2.5) Over Tennessee Titans

Don’t let a furious fourth quarter comeback distract you from the abysmal Tennessee offense we saw for 3.5 quarters. Will Levis still has plenty of growing to do, and the Texans will be determined to keep themselves alive in both the Wild Card, and divisional race. Stroud’s availability is in the air, but the Texans are where they are thanks to a strong defense, solid coaching, and their ability to persevere when the going gets tough. It won’t be easy without their rookie signal caller, but do not fall into the trap of thinking the Titans are an easy pick this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

Jake Browning has been playing inspired football, keeping his team afloat with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. The Bengals Super Bowl ambitions may have been dampened, but they still have the pieces to outlast a struggling Vikings team. Joshua Dobbs may have to go back to NASA after this season, as he’s been unable to replicate his mid-season form when it matters most. That trend continues, as the Bengals win a tight one.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense has the potential to shut down offenses at a moment’s notice. And after a second half goose egg from Gardner Minshew and the Colts in Week 14, if there is some early frustration, the Colts could see this one slip away. Their superior quality should allow them to prevail, but I am not eager to step in front of a rested, motivated Steelers defensive front. There are better options available this week, especially considering we may need the Colts in one of the other weeks to round out the season.

Denver Broncos (+5) over Detroit Lions

We have a good matchup on tap for Saturday night, but neither team should be involved in any survivor pool action. The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 games and are surging up the AFC standings. Meanwhile, the Lions appear to have lost their early season form, losing 2 of their last 3 games. Their first half struggles will allow the Broncos to strike first. And throughout Russell Wilson’s career, we have seen solid game management skills when maintaining a lead.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders Over Los Angeles Chargers

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans

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Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 8:15 PM
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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 15: Advice and Predictions

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