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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 12: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 11/21/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 12 Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings

That was a sweat. The Lions came extremely close to ruining our survivor pool dreams, as they had to overcome a 12-point deficit in the final four minutes of the 4th quarter to secure a victory over the Chicago Bears. There are just 7 weeks left in the regular season, and the goal of surviving is starting to feel tangible. The Lions held on for a narrow victory, with 4 of the 5 double digit favorites securing the outright win. The Washington Commanders inevitably ended some survivor pools, as they lost outright as 10-point favorites over the New York Giants. There aren’t many safe, and available options left at this stage of the season, but there are a few matchups I’m confident in laying our survivor pool lives on the line. Here are the Week 12 survivor pool picks, ranked from most to least confident.

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Miami Dolphins (-10) Over New York Jets

Like most weeks, the Dolphins are a great choice against lower tier opposition. Miami has struggled against the league’s best, but they’ve been able to consistently swat aside the league’s basement dwellers so far this season. The Jets will be turning to Tim Boyle at quarterback, and there is absolutely no chance he keeps pace with Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins high flying offense. If you haven’t used them yet, they are a solid pick in Week 12.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

An angry Patrick Mahomes will get plenty of opportunities to take out his frustration against a generous Raiders defense. The Chiefs offense hasn’t looked themselves in recent weeks, but a favorable matchup will result in a blowout win over their division rivals. Aidan O’Connell has done well filling in for Jimmy Garoppolo, but his good fortune will run out against the Chiefs. It’s a road game against a divisional rival, but the Chiefs are still a solid choice in Week 12.

Detroit Lions (-7.5) Over Green Bay Packers

The Lions needed a furious comeback to oust the Chicago Bears in Week 11, after turning the ball over 4 separate times. Jared Goff will be eager to add to the Lions hefty Thanksgiving Day win total, and the Packers will not provide much resistance. Jordan Love is far too inconsistent to give the Lions issues. And unless Detroit turns the ball over several times, this one won’t even be close.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) Over Chicago Bears

Since we’ve already used several of the teams with large spreads, we’ll be turning to Joshua Dobbs and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12. Justin Jefferson may be able to suit up for the first time in several weeks, which would give the Vikings offense a real lift against Chicago. The Bears may have been able to keep it close against the Lions, but they still tasted defeat despite getting handed 4 turnovers and going 2/2 on 4th down attempts. Regardless of Justin Fields’ ability to run the ball, the Bears offense has been ineffective, and won’t be able to move the ball downfield against the Vikings. Primetime games often result in wacky outcomes, but the Vikings will not let go of their 7th seed in the NFC and will take care of business in Week 12. There have been more confident weeks, but the Vikings will be the official pick for Week 12.

Dallas Cowboys (-11) Over Washington Commanders

The Cowboys are relatively low on my list, as this feels like a trap game for Dallas. Washington may have lost their last 2 games, but that wasn’t due to bad offense or defense, rather their 8-0 turnover margin. Sam Howell has blossomed into a quality starting quarterback in his first full season under center and will keep this one close against the Cowboys. Dallas will eventually pull off the win, but it won’t be without late drama I’ll be eager to avoid.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) Over Buffalo Bills 

The Bills have been far too inconsistent to keep it close against the Eagles. And while putting your survivor pool life on the line against a dangerous Bills team is a daunting prospect, it is a safe one with the Eagles across the field. Jalen Hurts has been the epitome of success, and his 25-3 record over his last 28 starts has me very confident they will take care of business at home against the Bills. Their elite run defense will keep the ball in Josh Allen’s hands. And with the country watching their 4:25 EST kickoff, Allen will find a way to throw the game away.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) Over Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals were dealt devastating news in Week 11, as Joe Burrow has been ruled out for the rest of the season. A deflated Bengals locker room will be tasked with a gritty game against the Steelers, and they will not be up to the task. Matt Canada has been relieved from his duties as the Steelers OC, and an even slightly improved Steelers offense will do more than enough with the short fields their defense will give them. The Steelers haven’t given up more than 20 points in the last 6 weeks, and Jake Browning will not be the one to end that streak. I initially planned to take the Bengals as my survivor pool pick before Burrow got hurt, but the loss of their signal caller has turned Pittsburgh into a solid Week 12 selection.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are always a solid team to fade this year, and the Titans are a good choice if you’re looking to save the top dogs for future weeks. Tennessee hasn’t found the consistency we’ve grown accustomed to over recent seasons, and the question of motivation will start to creep in as the chances for a playoff spot get slimmer and slimmer. However, Tennessee’s defense has done just enough to put a few wins on the board and will do their job in limiting the effectiveness of the first overall pick Bryce Young.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) Over Seattle Seahawks 

The Seahawks will give the 49ers issues. However, when it’s all said and done, the offensive talents for San Francisco will prevail. The Seahawks had a poor conclusion to last year’s regular season and are in danger of being condemned to the same fate this season. The usually reliable Geno Smith hasn’t been able to prevent turnovers, and the 49ers defense doesn’t need many opportunities to make season defining plays. Divisional battles are always tough to predict, especially in primetime, but the 49ers are simply too consistent to fade at this stage of the season.

New York Giants (+3) Over New England Patriots

The Giants will look to keep their momentum going with Tommy DeVito under center, and a visit from the Patriots is exactly what the doctor ordered. The Giants have the weapons to expose the Patriots 23rd ranked defense, and their gritty brand of football has allowed them to beat up on the weaker teams in the league. Brian Daboll will cook up a defensive gameplan to shut down Mac Jones and the Patriots, and it’s very surprising to see New England as sizable road favorites against anyone in the league.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) Over LA Chargers

This game is fishy, and there will be fireworks on Sunday night. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are free falling down the standings, and a visit from Baltimore will not be an easy task to navigate. The Ravens defense has continued to dominate, and a strong showing from Lamar Jackson could vault him up the rankings in a wide open MVP race. The Chargers have had plenty of time to tinker with their loaded roster, yet they still cannot put wins on the board.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) Over Cleveland Browns 

The Broncos have turned their season around, winning 4 straight games to keep them in the Wild Card race. Russell Wilson hasn’t been his former MVP self, but he is still head and shoulders better than Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Thompson-Robinson shouldn’t be starting on any NFL team, and it’s a real shame to see one of the best defenses of the decade being wasted in Cleveland. This one won’t have many points, but the few points we do see will favor the streaking Broncos.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have cooled down after their hot streak to start the season, but they will get back on track in Indianapolis. The Colts weak run defense will allow the Buccaneers to open up their playbook, instead of forcing Mayfield to sit in the pocket snap after snap. The magic surrounding Gardner Minshew’s injection into the team has begun to wear off, as the Colts get their unlikely playoff hopes dashed with a close loss to Tampa Bay.

Arizona Cardinals (PK) Over LA Rams

The Rams will not be the same team without Cooper Kupp running lethal routes, as his sprained ankle will limit his effectiveness if he’s able to suit up. Arizona has Kyler Murray back under center and will be desperate to see what their franchise quarterback can do throughout the season. Murray is playing for his future, and the pint-sized gunslinger will find a way to get his team over the line in what will be their last winnable home game of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (PK) Over New Orleans Saints

Both these teams are coming off their bye, and there is no reason to put your survivor pool life on the line in this high stakes NFC South battle. Top spot in the division is on the line, and I’ll lean in the direction of Atlanta in Week 12. Bijan Robinson will eventually get the reins loosened on his play. And when that happens, the Falcons offense will take another step forward. Taylor Heinicke is one of the best backups in the league, and a suddenly vulnerable Saints defense will give him plenty of chances to seal the win.

Houston Texans (+1.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars 

The Texans have won 3 straight, while the Jaguars have won 6 of their last 7 games. I am not eager to jump in front of either of these teams considering the run of form they’ve been on, but at home, I’ll lean towards Houston. CJ Stroud continues to put together an MVP caliber season in his rookie campaign, which will allow the Texans to edge out a win and grab a share of the AFC South lead. Jacksonville has been unable to shut down the elite passing attacks in the league, and the Texans certainly fit the bill. Don’t use either of these solid teams, but if you are left with no other choice, side with Houston in Week 12.

Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Minnesota Vikings Over Chicago Bears

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions

Status: Alive

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