NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 11: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 11/15/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 11 Jared Goff Detroit Lions

There are just 8 weeks to go in the regular season, and the number of surviving entries in your pool are certainly dwindling. If you’ve alive at this late stage of the season, which you are if you’ve been tailing this column, congratulations. However, we still have a long way to go before lifting the ultimate prize. Last week, we selected the Cowboys as 16.5-point favorites. There was never doubt on the outcome, as they steamrolled the Giants 49-17 in Week 10. The Bills, Bengals, and Ravens all lost as 6+ point favorites, which hopefully eliminated some of your remaining opposition. Here are the top picks for Week 11, ranked from most to least confident.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers went into their bye on a 3-game losing streak but came out of it with a demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars. When healthy, there is no stopping this team, and a cross-country trip for the Buccaneers will allow them to remain atop the NFC West. They are better on both sides of the ball, and a bolstered pass rush will force Baker Mayfield into making several key mistakes.

Detroit Lions (-9) Over Chicago Bears

The Lions will be my selection this week, as they should be able to swat aside their divisional foes. Justin Fields is still questionable to return. However, regardless of who is under center for the Bears, they are vastly outclassed. Detroit can put up points in a hurry, with 6 of their 8 wins this season coming by double digits. It shouldn’t be close, and the Lions are a great pick in Week 11, with very few easy games left on their schedule.

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Cowboys are rightfully sizable favorites over the 1-8 Panthers, as their hungry defensive line will have a field day against Bryce Young. The Cowboys early season loss against the Cardinals on the road still looms in the back of my mind, but Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb’s connection has blossomed in recent weeks. Their connection in the air will allow them to jump out to an early lead, and never look back. If you didn’t use them last week, the Cowboys are once again a safe survivor pool pick.

Miami Dolphins (-12.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

Despite their status as the largest favorite of the week, it’s difficult to be confident the Dolphins can make quick work of the Raiders. Antonio Pierce has jump started a lackluster Raiders dressing room, allowing them to win back-to-back games since his arrival. However, expecting that streak to stretch to 3 is a tall task on the road against Miami. It’s one thing to beat the Giants and Jets, but the Raiders will come back down to earth after Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill combine for multiple touchdowns, handing Pierce the first loss of his career.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) Over Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville got reminded they still have a long way to go before they are legitimate Super Bowl threats after being humbled by the 49ers in Week 10. They will have a much easier task against the Titans, whose 26th ranked passing attack will be unable to take advantage of the Jaguars 30th ranked passing defense. The Jags are pretty competent everywhere else on the field and will use their positional advantages to ride out an AFC South victory.

Houston Texans (-4) Over Arizona Cardinals

After beating the Bengals on the road, it’s hard to imagine CJ Stroud and the red-hot Texans falling to the Cardinals. Kyler Murray lifts this Arizona offense, but they are still miles behind Stroud and the Texans. Houston has legitimate playoff hopes, but a home loss to the lowly Cardinals would significantly decrease their prospects. It won’t be sweat free, but the Texans are a great Week 11 pick if you’re looking to save some of the top dogs.

Washington Commanders (-10) Over New York Giants

Speaking of saving the top dogs, the Commanders are a solid option in Week 11. While strategically they are a great pick, they are far from my most confident selection. Washington has lost 6 of their last 8 games, including a 14-7 defeat to the Giants in Week 7. It’s hard to have the utmost amount of confidence this spread suggests, but the Commanders are still far and away the better team. The divisional matchups between these two often result in close contests. And with a plethora of other heavy favorites on the board, I would look elsewhere.

Seattle Seahawks (-1) Over LA Rams

The Seahawks are looking to keep pace at the top of the NFC West, while the Rams are desperately searching for a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Seattle has found ways to win games, sitting with a 6-3 record, with a negative point differential. They either win small or lose big, and against the Rams it will be the former. There are too many question marks surrounding the Rams to have me worried about Seattle, as Geno Smith and co. will grind out another close game.

LA Chargers (-3) Over Green Bay Packers

The Chargers haven’t been the most reliable team this season, but they can use a road win against Green Bay to get them back on track. Jordan Love is a complete fraud and is in the bottom third of starting NFL quarterbacks. He turns the ball over far too frequently and lacks the decision-making abilities needed in the pocket. When the teams are going shot for shot late in the 4th, I’d much rather be backing Justin Herbert and the Chargers than Love. Considering the Chargers don’t have many easy games left on their schedule, they are a solid pick in Week 11.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) Over Denver Broncos

The Vikings are buoyant after winning a 5th straight game, and the second under Joshua Dobbs. Justin Jefferson is expected to be activated off IR in Week 11, and the Vikings offense will be able to unlock the increasingly improving Denver defense. Russell Wilson in primetime is not a reliable quarterback to trust, and I’d much rather have my survivor life in the hands of Joshua Dobbs. Vikings find a way to extend their win streak at Denver’s expense.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) Over Cincinnati Bengals

This one could honestly go either way. However, after watching how the Bengals threw the game away against the Texans, it’s hard to imagine an upset victory against the hardnosed Ravens. Baltimore will be angry about how they threw away their own win against the Browns in Week 10, and a short week will have them playing mad against the Bengals. They are ever so slightly better on both sides of the ball, and the home crowd will lift them to a crucial victory.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) Over Cleveland Browns

The Steelers and Browns are both 6-3 thanks to strong defensive efforts. With points at a premium in this one, it’s hard to confidently pick the winner as a single touchdown may turn out to be enough to win this one. The Steelers have been outgained in every single game this season but have found ways to win 6 of the 9 contests so far. Deshaun Watson is on the shelf for the remainder of the season, and this is exactly the type of game the Steelers have consistently won over the course of recent seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) Over Kansas City Chiefs

The Eagles and Chiefs square off in a Super Bowl rematch, but this time the Eagles will level up the score. Their work in the dirty areas of the field will be the difference-maker in this regular season contest, as Jalen Hurts and the ‘Tush Push’ is truly an unstoppable weapon. Don’t use someone like the Eagles at this stage of the season, but they will get it done against the reigning champs.

Buffalo Bills (-7) Over Denver Broncos

The Bills have been the biggest disappointment of the season, and a home game against a ravenous Jets defense will not be the solution for Jash Allen’s turnover problems. Allen has single handedly thrown the game away on multiple occasions and has led the Bills to a 5-5 record so far in the season. There isn’t a bigger ‘must win’ game on the Bills schedule, but they are too unreliable to warrant my survivor pool life at this stage of the season.

Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Detroit Lions Over Chicago Bears

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys

Status: Alive

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Start:	November 13, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 11: Advice and Predictions

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