NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/4/2023

NFL survivor pool picks Week 1 Sam Howell Washington Commanders

The NFL season is finally kicking off, and with it comes a wide variety of wagering options. There are few better feelings than surviving a grueling season in a survivor pool. Unlike many other forms of sports betting, in a survivor pool you simply select one team to win each week, but there’s a catch. Once you select a team, let’s say the Chiefs in Week 1, you can no longer select the Chiefs for the rest of the season. The first few weeks can be straightforward, while you still have everyone as an option. However, as the season winds down, selecting a fresh winner each week becomes increasingly more difficult. The nature of a survivor pool is quite simple, but the complex strategies at play ensure few survive all 18 weeks. I will be breaking down the best bets each week so make sure you return next week for what will eventually be season-saving advice. Here are the matchups ranked from strongest to weakest for Week 1.

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Baltimore Ravens (-10) Over Houston Texans

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens should have no problem taking down the Texans in Week 1. They are the largest favorites of the week and have won 11 of the last 15 Week 1 contests. They are better on both sides of the ball. And while they are my most confident play of the week, they may not be the wisest. It is always risky to use a top dog like the Ravens in Week 1, but there aren’t many plays safer than a Ravens victory to start the season.

Washington Commanders (-7) Over Arizona Cardinals

This will be the most favored the Commanders will be all season, and it is a great time to tick them off the board after they take down the lowly Cardinals in Week 1. Sam Howell is the new face of the franchise, and the Commanders will be confident they can turn their 3-0 preseason record into a 1-0 start. Kyler Murray will not be playing for Arizona, and the Cardinals feel as though their season is over before it even gets going. Commanders start hot and are a fantastic play for Week 1 of the survivor pool.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) Over Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars will be traveling to their rival’s turf for Week 1, but that won’t stop Trevor Lawrence and co. from walking away with a win. The Colts off-field issues surrounding Jonathan Taylor have been a big distraction, and there is little to no hope of it being resolved anytime soon. Divisional games can be tough, but the Jaguars will start the season off strong.

Thursday Night: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) Over Detroit Lions

The season kicks with a mammoth matchup between two of the most interesting teams in the league. The Chiefs will be able to hold off the Lions at Arrowhead Stadium, and there will be no Super Bowl hangover as they easily took care of business with a 34-20 Week 1 victory immediately following their last championship. Patrick Mahomes excels when the lights are brightest, and he will not disappoint us on Thursday night.

New Orleans Saints (-3) Over Tennessee Titans

The Saints have a new man at QB, and Derek Carr will be eager to start off his Saints tenure with a home field victory. There is real optimism in New Orleans, while the Titans are lost in mediocrity and look destined for another middling season. A gritty win for the Saints will put the league on notice that this team will be playing meaningful games in January.

Minnesota Vikings (-6) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Vikings finished last year with a 13-4 record despite a negative point differential. Kirk Cousins routinely does just enough to win games, but against the lowly Buccaneers he’ll be able to make a statement with a double-digit victory.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) Over New England Patriots

A trip to Gillette Stadium is always difficult with mastermind Bill Belichick on the sidelines. However, the Eagles will be able to get off to a winning start on the back of their grinding run game. Jalen Hurts and his backfield will win the battle in the trenches, as the Eagles leave New England with a victory.

Monday Night: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) Over New York Jets

Josh Allen has had a full offseason to heal his injured elbow and will start this season off with a win at Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ expense. The Bills are a complete team that have been able to develop chemistry over the last few seasons, while the Jets are still wearing name tags in the locker room. The Bills remind the league that they are still a force to be reckoned with.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Over Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson has plenty to prove. His stint with the Texans saw him rise up the quarterback ranks, but his time in Cleveland has been far less impressive. Joe Burrow and the Bengals will head into Cleveland and remind the Browns faithful how simple the quarterback job can be. Ja’Marr Chase and Burrow will be eager to start the season off right and take advantage of a lost Browns franchise.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) Over San Francisco 49ers

The Steelers win football games. In the last 20 years, they’ve gone a remarkable 14-5-1 in Week 1, as Mike Tomlin always gets his troops ready for the season. The pressure of being the QB1 in San Francisco will get to Purdy, as the Steelers defensive line gets to him early and often, en route to a surprising Week 1 win.

Sunday Night: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) Over New York Giants

Dak Prescott will take care of the ball in Week 1, limiting his turnovers as the Cowboys start the season off strong. The Giants made some big offseason moves, highlighted by the singing of Darren Waller, but it will take them a week or two to get going. America’s team edges the Giants thanks to a last second field goal on Sunday Night.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a disaster, and even the inconsistent Broncos can get a home field win over their division rivals. Russell Wilson will be happy to put last year behind him and will lean on a solid defense to get the job done. Jimmy Garoppolo will be happy to be a starter once again but is in for a long season in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Falcons shocked the NFL world by taking Bijan Robinson 8th overall in last year's draft, and the Texas graduate will put his foot in the turf in Week 1. Both these teams are coming out of a rebuild, but the Falcons have a few more proven NFL talents that will prove to be the difference maker in Week 1.

LA Rams (+5) Over Seattle Seahawks

It may be surprising to see a 5-point spread this low on the list, but I haven’t written off the Rams just yet. They don’t have the depth to compete over a lengthy season. However, with a healthy lineup entering the year, be prepared for them to make some early waves. Matthew Stafford still has plenty to give and will lead the Rams to a shock Week 1 victory over their division rival.

Chicago Bears (PK) Over Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears throughout his career, going 24-5 during his Green Bay tenure. However, now that the veteran signal caller has moved on, it is time for the Bears to take advantage. Justin Fields is a unique quarterback that is a constant headache for defensive coordinators. There is renewed optimism in Chicago, and a home win against their longtime rival is the perfect way to signal the start of a new era.

Miami Dolphins (+3) Over LA Chargers

Just stay away from this one. The total is set at 51 points, and the victor will likely be whoever has the ball last. Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa are two dynamic quarterbacks capable of leading their teams to double digit wins. There will be plenty of opportunities to use these teams against inferior foes.

Survivor play of the Week: Washington Commanders Over the Arizona Cardinals

Teams Used: None

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