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NFL Rookie QB Performance Predictions with Betting Odds

by Mike Allen - 8/3/2023

NFL rookie quarterback performance odds Bryce Young Carolina Panthers

We will likely see three different rookie quarterbacks start multiple games for their teams in 2023. These studs were all drafted within the top 4 selections.

I was hoping the three players would be ready by week 1. That still may be the case.

We were able to find several different types of betting odds. Which ones can we use to predict how these athletes perform throughout the regular season?

One of the three will fail, at least in their first year.

Will it be former Alabama quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young? He was the first pick by the Carolina Panthers in the draft, but the kid is incredibly undersized at just 5'10" and 200 pounds.

Kyler Murray is no bigger than that, and we saw some magical numbers put up by the Arizona Cardinals star to begin his career.

We also have CJ Stroud for the Houston Texans. He's a big guy from Ohio State who can do it all. His ceiling may be a bit lower than the other two, but, arguably, he has the better floor or foundation.

Our third rookie quarterback is Anthony Richardson. He has packed on even more size up to a lean 250 pounds. The former Florida Gator took 100% of the first-team snaps at yesterday’s practice.

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Bryce Young 2023 Rookie QB Performance

Touchdown Passes

Over 21.5: -105

Under 21.5: -125

Recent reports out of Panthers practice indicate Young is the projected Week 1 starter. And while finding success in tight windows, he has thrown an INT in each of his first few practices.

As long as the kid stays healthy, the team will likely stick with him as their starting quarterback for the better part of the season, if not all.

Does that mean we go over 21.5 touchdowns? The Panthers threw for just 16 TDs as a team last year with decent guys under center like Darnold and Mayfield.

They don't have the weapons, either.

Pick: Young Under 21.5 TD passes

CJ Stroud 2023 Rookie QB Performance

Touchdown Passes

Over 17.5: -115

Under 17.5: -115

We know CJ is still fighting for a starting job. There is no way I am going over 17.5 for the kid from Rancho Cucamonga.

Pick: Under 17.5 TDs

Interceptions

Over 13.5: -105

Under 13.5: -125

Remember, Peyton Manning set the rookie record for interceptions. That’s just what rookie quarterbacks do.

Pick: Over 13.5 INTs

Anthony Richardson 2023 Rookie QB Performance

Touchdown Passes

Over 14.5: -105

Under 14.5: -125

While I see Anthony Richardson being the first QB benched, we are going against the narrative of the under 14.5 touchdown passes. He has the best team around him out of the three QBs and the best offensive line.

He potentially gets benched at some point in the year, but I like his coach and team to put him in the position to succeed while he's in the game.

Over 14.5 TDs: -105

Interceptions

Over 12.5: -115

Under 12.5: -115

Refer above. Rookie QBs throw picks. I can see Anthony tossing 13 INTs in 8-10 games.

We are going over.

Pick: Over 12.5 INTs

Who Will Start More Games out of the 2023 Rookie QB Class?

Bryce Young: +125

CJ Stroud: +135

Anthony Richardson: +200

The sportsbooks are slipping. I know it's early, and I know these quarterbacks are just kids. Knowing what we know now, though, Young's implied probability should be more than a 2% difference from Stroud's.

Bryce has been named the starter, and CJ is in a dogfight for his position. Yes, the script could be flipped in the second half of the season, but I will take those chances when I'm only losing 10 cents on the dollar.

Pick: Bryce Young: +125

First QB Benched from the 2023 Rookie QB Class?

Anthony Richardson: -150

CJ Stroud: +210

Bryce Young: +450

Oh, the value warriors are going to crucify me for this one. I am taking the narrative to the house and banking on this betting line becoming unplayable.

With Bryce Young already receiving the most commitment out of his team, and CJ Stroud potentially not even getting the opportunity to get benched, Richardson is the play.

Pick: Anthony Richardson: -150

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Predictions

Bryce Young: +400

CJ Stroud: +550

Anthony Richardson: +900

It should be noted that Bijan Robinson is the betting favorite at (+275) to win this award. Focusing, though, only on the QBs today, I like Young.

Richardson may have a good start but fizzle out once teams get a read on him. We have him as the first of the three QBs benched. So, this award is out of the question.

CJ is fighting for a starting spot, while Young already has it. We only have the flop at the moment. The turn and the river might change the odds, but there is good value right now.

Pick: Bryce Young: +400

In Conclusion

We can break down the stats, the tape, the interviews, and more, but the fact remains. Yes, it is highly difficult to predict the "success" of any rookie quarterback in the NFL.

I do genuinely like some of our spots today, though, with my favorite play being Young to start the most games.

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