2023 NFL QB Performance Betting Odds and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/3/2023

NFL QB performance state odds Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins

I realize that people probably say this every year, but I have been following the NFL for decades, and I don't remember a time when we had so many different storylines heading into week 1 of the regular season.

Where do we start?

The Aaron Rodgers drama in Green Bay is finally over.

Baker Mayfield is taking over for Tom Brady down in T-Town. It appears we will have three rookie starting quarterbacks to begin the season. Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, and Bryce Young were all chosen in the top four picks of the NFL Draft.

Can Matthew Stafford return to form as he is returning from a spinal cord contusion that severely limited his play last season? Can Russell Wilson turn things around for himself and the Denver Broncos after failing miserably in his first year?

Will Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert be able to set themselves apart and potentially be in the conversation with Patrick Mahomes as the best quarterback in the league?

I will shut up about the narratives now so we can focus on some fun betting odds that will last you until Christmas.

Who will throw the most touchdowns? Who throws the most interceptions?

Do you want to wait until week one to place your first NFL wager? Haven't you heard? The early bird gets the worm.

Let’s check the odds and make some plays!

Most Interceptions Thrown by NFL QBs

What are we looking for here?

We want an aging QB who takes chances historically and once relied heavily on arm strength. A solid example of this would be the great Brett Favre. He always threw a decent number of picks, but they were very high late in his career.

Who is the Brett Favre of 2023? Could it be Aaron Rodgers? I don't think so. After all, he isn't a perfect match because he has been incredibly stingy over the years. That said, he did chuck 12 last season, only three fewer than the league leaders, who tossed 15 to the other team.

Aaron could be our candidate, but his success will depend on who protects his blind side. Left tackle Mekhi Becton is undoubtedly a physical specimen at 6'7", 363 lbs, but he has battled injuries over the first three years in the league.

The odds for A-A-Ron to fall off are just too tempting. He regressed significantly last season when he threw 12 interceptions. Even with a healthy left tackle, the Jets' offensive line still ranks among the league's worst heading into Week 1.

This prediction is difficult, so let's make it worth it. 50-1 on Aaron Rodgers to lead the league in INTs.

Pick: Rodgers (+5000)

Most Touchdowns Thrown by NFL QBs in 2023

Let’s get started with a flier on Jimmy G!

Yes, Mr. Garoppolo is poised for an outstanding season. Last season, he threw only 16 touchdowns, but it was on just 308 pass attempts. His role will certainly grow in Vegas, and the group around him are built for attacking through the air.

Their best offensive lineman by far is their left tackle, Kolton Miller. It doesn't look like Josh Jacobs is going to have a lot of holes up the middle. So, maybe the Raiders look to pass the ball more in the red zone.

They have a rookie tight end, Michael Mayer, that will contribute immediately. I love him on some streaks after a play-action fake to Jacobs. Out wide, he has Davante Adams with Hunter Renfrow in the slot.

The Raiders are not projected to win many games this year. Therefore, Jim will likely have opportunities to add a few meaningless TDs in the 4th quarter.

Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo (+4000)

Let’s make another prediction for the most touchdowns thrown in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite, but with a payout of only 3-1, we have to focus on the value. That's why I want to go with my guy Tua Tagovailoa. We all saw how much he improved last season.

He had the No. 1 QB Rating in the NFL last season, edging out Mahomes by .03. Sure, Tua fell short of Pat's 41 with only 25 touchdown passes. Their touchdowns/pass attempt stat, though, is nearly identical.

Tua had a slow start in the first half of last season and still put up these numbers. At 16-1, I'll take Tagovailoa to lead the league in touchdowns thrown.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa (+1600)

In Conclusion

Nobody knows what's in store for us NFL fans and bettors in 2023. Like anything in life, we can focus on the positive or the negative.

If you're smart, though, you spend time analyzing each. We did today by throwing our best spitball at the blackboard. I like our spots, though.

We only need one of these three plays to hit, and the best thing about these future bets is how long they last.

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