NFL Power Rankings Week 8
This is the grind.
That initial excitement of the return of the NFL wore off weeks ago. The honeymoon is over. Now we find ourselves midway through the gauntlet of the regular season. That familiar Tuesday-Saturday routine is starting to calcify, and the space between NFL weekends shrinking.
Teams are dealing with injuries. There were backup quarterbacks and random-ass starters all over the television last weekend. Teams are also dealing with reality. Some teams that entered the season with hope, like the Broncos, Chargers and Saints, aren’t worth damn. Others, like the Bills and Bengals, are starting to feel a twinge of desperation as their seasons haven’t lived up to their expectations.
Still others, like the Texans, Lions and Dolphins, are loving life and riding high after two months of clear success.
It’s not different for bettors. Maybe your NFL betting season hasn’t gotten off to the start that you wanted it to. You’re in the red and searching for answers. Or maybe you’ve been crushing it out of the gate, beating the books and playing with house money, trying to stave off those back-of-your-mind thoughts that this is all too good to last.
Regardless, this is the grind. We’re in it now. There’s no turning back. The only thing to do is to lower your head and keep charging into the great unknown. It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t, then everyone would do it.
Week 8 begins in just two days. Keep calm and carry on. And just keep grinding.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) – It is bizarre to me that teams apparently don’t have a game plan to consistently double Travis Kelce. At least twice in the game against Los Angeles, the Chargers were in a zone and absolutely no one was anywhere near Kelce. I mean, he was wide open with no defender within eight yards of him. How does that happen? Kansas City is now 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) – I don’t know why they even bothered to play that game on Sunday night. There was absolutely no way the Eagles were going to lose that game in their Kelly green uniforms. The Eagles running game has been held below 100 yards in back-to-back games, mustering just 179 yards on 56 carries the last two weeks.
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) – It’s tough to rag on a defense that has ‘only’ allowed 19 and 22 points the last two weeks. But San Francisco’s defense got shredded by Cleveland’s running game (160 yards) and Minnesota’s passing game (378 yards), and they lost the time of possession battle by six minutes and 10 minutes, respectively.
4. Miami Dolphins (5-2) – Miami was the one AFC East team that gave the Brady-Belichick Patriots fits throughout the dynasty. Now the tables have turned, and Miami is the monster favorite. I know they have had a load of success in this series lately, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, but Miami has not beaten the Patriots by more than 10 points since 2014.
5. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) – That Lions game could’ve been even uglier than the 38-6 final score. Baltimore absolutely earned a first-round knockout in that one. Lamar Jackson absolutely deserves the praise he is getting for his improved patience and decision making. He also had all day to throw against a Lions pass rush that did absolutely nothing in that game. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS following a win of 14 or more points.
6. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) – Mike McCarthy is a major pud. However, he is 12-3 ATS in his career after a bye week. McCarthy went 10-2 ATS with rest in Green Bay and is 2-1 ATS in Dallas.
7. Detroit Lions (5-2) – Be careful. The Lions have been so good against the spread over the past two-plus years that the oddsmakers are clearly starting to catch up with them. Detroit is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games and is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games. This team has only hosted one Monday Night Football game since 2014, so I would expect a pretty raucous crowd for that one.
8. Buffalo Bills (4-3) – For all the ink that has been spilled about Josh Allen’s turnover problems – which is a serious issue; that first INT was some rookie-level stuff – much less has been written about the erosion of this defense. The Bills are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, second-worst in the NFL, and they have allowed 20 or more points in three of their last four games. They are soft on that side of the ball.
9. Cleveland Browns (4-2) – Deshaun Watson sucks. He was terrible for the quarter that he was in there. Healthy or not, I don’t think that he is a plus for this offense. It is becoming pretty clear that just like Denver, Cleveland massively overpaid for an overrated quarterback.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) – OK, OK: maybe I was wrong about this team. What stands out about this group is how calm and methodical they are. This team is now 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games.
11. Seattle Seahawks (4-2) – I would not expect D.K. Metcalf back this week for Seattle. The Seahawks offense has scored 20 points or less in four of six games (they had a defensive score in the 24-3 Giants win) this season. With the weather projected to be in the low 40’s this weekend in Seattle, I don’t know if this is the week, sans Metcalf, that they top that 20-point threshold.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) – I’m still kicking myself for pulling a small play off my card last week on the Steelers. We are well beyond the point – and that includes this weekend – where Pittsburgh should be an automatic play as an underdog. The Steelers are 46-21 ATS their last 67 games as an underdog, 23-7 ATS as a home underdog, and 39-17 ATS as an underdog of fewer than three points.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) – Right now, betting on or against this team really feels like taking your life into your own hands. Cincinnati is 17-6 ATS on the road and 13-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. However, they haven’t looked good at all this year, even in recent wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals.
14. Houston Texans (3-4) – Look, I don’t really think Houston is the 14th best team in the NFL right now. I really just don’t know where to put them. The Top 10 teams are solid and are the league powers. The bottom 10 teams all suck. These other 12 teams you can shake up and put in any order that you want and it wouldn’t faze me. The Texans are just 1-5 ATS against teams with a losing record and 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
15. Los Angeles Rams (3-4) – The lack of overall depth, talent and experience on this roster is starting to catch up to the Rams. They are on OT possession away from being on a 1-5 skein, and their only non-OT win since Week 1 came at home against Arizona.
16. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) – Desmond Ridder just continues his historically bad start for the Falcons. Ridder became the first player in 45 years to lose three red zone fumbles – THREE! – in a single game. He now has six turnovers in two games. And when the Falcons finally start playing real teams, they are going to get pummeled.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) – For the second straight week and the third time, Justin Herbert missed Keenan Allen for a wide-open touchdown throw. And once again it was a throw that any average NFL quarterback should be able to make, not something that required Herbert’s Pro Bowl talent. Herbert is running for his life behind Los Angeles’ terrible offensive line. But he has to make the plays that are there. It’s not a great sign that the Chargers have only five giveaways this year and a +5 turnover margin, yet they have a losing record.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) – It’s also not a great sign that the Bucs only have six giveaways and a league-best +7 turnover margin and they are clinging to .500. It is also no great mystery why this team can’t score points. They can’t run the ball. At all. They are averaging a league-worst 3.0 yards per carry. Tampa is fine in pass formation, but they aren’t moving the ball on the ground. They have converted just 37.5 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns this year, which is fourth-worst in the NFL.
19. New York Jets (3-3) – Do you really want to back Zach Wilson?
20. New Orleans Saints (3-3) – Over the last 25 years, for my money, the three biggest home field advantages in the NFL have been in Seattle, Baltimore and New Orleans. So, it was unnerving to see how absolutely dead the crowd was in the Superdome last Thursday. No life. No emotion. No nothing. That was a primetime night game, and from the opening kick the crowd couldn’t care less. Maybe it is a good thing the Saints are back on the road for the fifth time in seven weeks.
21. Indianapolis Colts (3-4) – Look, you can complain all you want about the calls on the final drive of Indy’s loss to the Browns. All I can say is: I’ve seen worse. And you can only complain so much when you give up 39 points to P.J. Walker and the Browns. I have no sympathy for this group. However, it will be a test for the young coaching staff to get this team back up off the mat and ready to play this week after a heartbreaking loss.
22. Minnesota Vikings (3-4) – You have to love the Jordan Addison-Charvarius Ward battle on Monday. Ward wins the first battle, ripping away a pass for a first quarter interception. But the rookie Addison learned from that exchange and later wrestled the ball away from Ward before taking off for a crucial 60-yard touchdown just before halftime.
23. Tennessee Titans (2-4) – I know it sounds insane, but don’t write-off the Titans this week just yet. Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to play. And Mike Vrabel has already said he may use both Will Levis and Malik Willis this week. That all sounds bad. Still, Vrabel and the Titans have been too good in the underdog role to ignore. The Titans are 7-1 ATS after a bye and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.
24. New England Patriots (2-5) – Mac Jones still had some bizarre moments – his fumble and his weird throw on a screen pass stand out – but for the most part looked great on Sunday. New England spread the ball around to nine different receivers and four different rushers and finally looked like an NFL offense.
25. Washington Commanders (3-4) – The Commanders took Philadelphia to overtime in their previous meeting on Oct. 1 and they actually beat the Eagles last November. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Philadelphia. However, this Commanders team is very much trending in the wrong direction. Since that Oct. 1 game, they got slapped around by the Bears and Giants, two of the worst teams in the league, and they beat the Falcons in a game where Washington was outgained by 200 yards.
26. Green Bay Packers (2-5) – The Packers have held three of their last four opponents below 20 points and are currently No. 8 in the NFL in passing defense. Their rush defense is the third-worst in football, yielding 143.7 yards per game, but they have been excellent in the back seven. Now they just need to find some turnovers, as their 5 forced is also third-worst in the league.
27. Denver Broncos (2-5) – The Broncos have allowed 1,171 rushing yards this season and are surrendering 5.5 yards per carry. I have no idea why anyone ever throws a pass against this defense. Denver has lost 16 straight games against Kansas City, including the recent meeting on Oct. 12 (19-8).
28. Chicago Bears (2-5) – I’m not sure where this is going to go with Tyson Bagent, but I know I would rather watch him for the rest of the season than Justin Fields. I like Bagent’s demeanor and the way he throws a soft, accurate ball. Chicago’s offense also did a much better job of attacking the perimeter with creative plays, rather than settling for those feeble wide receiver screens and inside trap runs.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) – The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on Monday Night Football and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.
30. New York Giants (2-5) – At 22.9, the Giants offense is the worst in football in terms of yards per point. That’s going to be a problem going up against a Jets defense that is among the best in the NFL. The Giants are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog.
31. Arizona Cardinals (1-6) – It’s not a great sign when your opponent gifts you three turnovers and you still lose by double digits. Arizona has now lost four straight games both SU and ATS, losing those four games by an average of 15 points per game.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-6) – You have to check Carolina’s injury report this week. If they can get Vonn Bell, Xavier Woods, Jaycee Horn and Yetur Gross-Matos all back healthy, then I think their defense is going to be solid and maybe enough to keep them competitive with Houston. If two or three of those guys still can’t go after the bye week, this team will get run again.
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