NFL Power Rankings Week 7
You can’t mess with Isaac Newton.
You know Newton. Famous scientist. Was a big fan of the pooch punt and the shovel pass.
Newton’s Third Law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The universe is all about adjustment. Give and take. Forces acting against one another.
Over the last decade, the NFL has seen an explosion of offense unlike anything in the sport over the last half century. Innovative, pass-wacky offenses have changed the game, resulting in a high-water mark of 49.6 points per game scored during the 2020 season.
There have been bursts of high-scoring periods throughout football history. In the 1940’s and 1950’s, as the forward pass took flight, scoring jumped from an average of 32.4 PPG in 1942 to 45.8 points per game just eight years later. There was another spike in the mid-1960’s and then again in the mid-80’s, as the West Coast offense changed the game again.
What you are less likely to read about, though, is the periods of defensive adjustments that occurred in between those four clear ages of offensive eruption. These things move in cycles. And following each course of rising scoring numbers there was a subsequent dip in total points as defensive coordinators countered the prevailing offensive schemes of the day.
We are in the middle of one such dip right now.
NFL teams combined to average 46.0 points per game as recently as 2021. Right now, they are at 43.4. That may not seem like a sizeable shift. But 2023 is on pace to be the lowest scoring season since 2006.
For football bettors, the result has been a tidal wave of ‘under’ and totals bettors cleaning up on the current state of scoring incompetence.
Last week alone, 13 of 15 NFL games stayed ‘under’ the posted total. That included the three primetime games with scores of 19-8, 14-9 and 20-17 that came up an average of 18 points short of their respective totals.
Through seven weeks of the season, the ‘under’ is cashing at an astronomical 61.6 percent rate (53-33). That is the highest rate of games going ‘under’ since 1991.
I could take you into the weeds of how and why this is happening. We could talk about split safeties, explosive play rates, air yards per attempt, the Cover-2 morph and all the football minutia all day long. It won’t change what has become the fact of the matter: scoring is down, the deep ball is dead and bettors need to adjust their habits because the oddsmakers are doing the same.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) – I’m not going to crush the 49ers for losing on the road in an early kickoff to the Browns. The bigger issue is injuries to All-Pros Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey. The bye week is coming at the right time for this group.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) – Everyone has pointed out how sloppy this team has been in its first five wins. Eventually mistakes are going to catch up to teams. Sunday it did. Philadelphia had four turnovers, three dropped passes, a missed field goal and got shut out in the second half. The public appears to be souring on this team as most of the early week tickets for Week 7 have been written for the Dolphins.
3. Miami Dolphins (5-1) – This team has played one playoff-caliber team on the road this year – and they lost by 28 points. The Dolphins offense, which is averaging an absurd 37.2 points per game and is No. 1 in every major category, is a sight to behold. But Vic Fangio hasn’t had the desired effect on the Miami defense, which is ranked No. 19 or worse in total defense, pass and run defense and points allowed.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) – The Chiefs have won three straight and six of eight against the Chargers. None of them have been easy, though, as their last two wins over Los Angeles came by three points apiece and the two before that were both in overtime. Kansas City is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against its division rivals.
5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) – Sloppy. A win is a win. But that was another sloppy effort by Mike McCarthy and Co. Wasted timeouts. Ridiculous penalties (11 for 85 yards; and several others weren’t accepted). Confusing 4th down decisions. Red zone failures. This really does look like the same old Cowboys, which means they are headed for another January postseason meltdown.
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2) – It’s been a weird month for the Bills, who have ping-ponged from championship caliber in their 48-20 win over Miami to completely incompetent in their near-loss to the Giants. Had New York managed two plays at the one-yard line better, the Bills would be 3-3 right now.
7. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) – Since trading for Roquan Smith last year, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game. They have gone ‘under’ the total in 13 of the 16 games that they have played with Smith in the center of their defense.
8. Detroit Lions (5-1) – Dating back to last season the Lions have played six of their last 10 games on the road. They have won five of those games outright, including their win at Kansas City to open the season. The Lions carved up a very good Bucs defense for 380 total yards last week, and Jameson Williams made an instant impact with a 45-yard touchdown.
9. Cleveland Browns (3-2) – That is the reason why I have kept the Browns ranked this highly in my power rankings. That defense is awesome. Cleveland can still run the ball a bit, even without Nick Chubb, and they are a gritty squad (except for Deshaun Watson, who is soft and a weirdo). The Browns are just 2-5 ATS on the road and they are just 19-41 ATS in their last 60 games after an ATS win.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) – There has been a bizarre line movement on this Jaguars-Saints game on Thursday. Prior to last week’s results, the game was on the board as a ‘pick’. The Jaguars blew out the Colts and the Saints fell to the Texans, yet the line shot up to New Orleans -3.0. As of this writing on Tuesday, the line is back down to the Jaguars as +1.0 underdogs. It will be interesting to see what the line does between now and kickoff.
11. Seattle Seahawks (3-2) – These guys have to feel like they let one get away on Sunday in Cincinnati. Four trips inside the Bengals 10-yard line yielded just three points for the Seahawks, and they went just 1-for-5 in the red zone. Seattle is now just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after a bye week and Seattle’s sloppiness backs up my long-held assertion that NFL teams are rarely sharp coming out of the week off.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) – At this point, I feel like it is just Pavlovian conditioning to bet the Steelers when they are getting points. Pittsburgh is 45-21 ATS in their last 67 games as an underdog. It is still tough to trust this offense, and there is no way that a week off will have led to any grand revelations on that side of the ball.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) – Cincinnati had no business beating the Seahawks on Sunday. They were outgained 381-214, they couldn’t run the ball, and the defense still looks like a house of cards in a gentle breeze.
14. Los Angeles Rams (3-3) – The Rams are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites and they are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games against AFC opponents. Kyren Williams was awesome in the second half against the Cardinals. But the second-year man has already been ruled out for this week’s game against the Steelers.
15. Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) – That MNF loss was on Justin Herbert. There is simply no sugarcoating it. Yes, Herbert was running for his life for most of the night. But he missed two wide open – I’m mean WIDE OPEN – touchdowns to Keenan Allen. Missing one of those throws? It happens. But to miss two of them, and miss them as badly as Herbert did, has to put that L at the quarterback’s feet.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) – The Tampa Bay defense is going to chew up Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta offense and spit them out. I see this week’s game playing out very similar to what the Bucs did to the Bears and Saints. In both games, Tampa Bay got a lead and then basically just sat on the ball, knowing that the opposing offense didn’t really have a chance to score. The Bucs are 5-1 SU in their last six games against Atlanta.
17. Houston Texans (3-3) – For all the talk about the strides that C.J. Stroud has made, the Texans defense is sneaky good. They have held four straight opponents to 21 points or less and are allowing an average of just 14.3 points per game over the last month.
18. New Orleans Saints (3-3) – The Saints had four drives reach inside the Texans 30-yard line in the second half and they turned those into just three total points. New Orleans’ 17.2 yards per point and their 36.8 red zone touchdown rate are both fifth-worst in the NFL. They are moving the ball but not scoring points. That makes them kind of the poster children for the NFL these days.
19. Tennessee Titans (2-4) – Ryan Tannehill has a high ankle sprain. Early reports suggest that he isn’t going to need surgery and the Titans have a bye this week. It will be fascinating to see what Mike Vrabel does with second-year dud Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis if Tannehill isn’t ready to go in Week 8.
20. Washington Commanders (3-3) – The Commanders have been absolutely awful against the Giants. Dating back to 2005, Washington is 10-23-1 against their East rivals. Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games, but they aren’t used to the role of road favorites, and they are coming off a win in a game in which they were outgained by over 200 yards.
21. Atlanta Falcons (3-3) – Dud Ridder strikes again. Look, if Arthur Smith is too stubborn or too stupid to see that Ridder is worthless and not just some young kid, “learning the game,” then Smith deserves to have his job on the line. Atlanta has the league’s No. 4 defense. They have a very winnable division in a shaky NFC. If he doesn’t cut the cord and go with Taylor Heinicke, then Smith – who had a terrible day on Sunday with poor clock management and wasted timeouts – should be on the chopping block.
22. Green Bay Packers (2-3) – I can’t stress enough what a big moment this is this week for both Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. This team has been sloppy as hell all season. Not just bad – but sloppy. They have had two weeks to prepare for a game against an absolutely reeling Denver team. At the very least, I need to see better execution from Love and Co. and LaFleur needs to have a team that hits the field focused and ready to play.
23. New York Jets (3-3) – Let’s not get too excited about this team’s prospects as a potential AFC spoiler. They are generating more scoring opportunities with their defense than with their offense. That’s completely unsustainable (unless you are the Steelers). The Jets are on a three-game ATS winning streak and have a chance to get over .500 after the bye with a game against the Giants.
24. Indianapolis Colts (3-3) – I don’t regret all the of the good things I’ve said about Gardner Minshew in this space. But good god that was ugly. He would’ve had four interceptions if one didn’t get taken off the board for defensive offsides. And he lost a fumble. Good quarterbacks don’t turn the ball over five times in one month. Minshew almost did it in one game.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) – Wait: NFL iron man Jimmy Garoppolo is hurt? I never saw that coming! Believe it or not, but this team should exit Week 7 on a three-game winning streak. Las Vegas already managed to win at Denver this season, so they should be able to knock off the putrid Bears.
26. Minnesota Vikings (2-4) – No, I’m not giving the Vikings any credit for barely beating the pathetic Bears. It was more of the same from this group on Sunday, with sloppy turnovers and ugly penalties. This is just a bad football team right now. They are averaging two turnovers per game and have lost a ridiculous nine fumbles! It should’ve been 10 if not for a questionable call by the officials in the first half, ruling that a Bears defender was out of bounds without full control of the ball.
27. Arizona Cardinals (1-5) – That was about as good of a first half as this team can play. The Cardinals kept the ball for 21 of 30 minutes in the first half, rushing it 24 times for 103 yards and playing keep-away from the Rams. Despite that they were still up just 9-6 and they got shutout in the second half. Again: I like the scheme. But Arizona just doesn’t have enough good players on defense to make it work.
28. New England Patriots (1-5) – That really was an all-time bad beat for Patriots backers right there. Any time you lose the game when your team takes a safety in the final two minutes it is horrific. But the Patriots had 2nd-and-4 from the 15-yard line! How do you go from 2nd-and-4 from the 15 to a safety? It is absolutely time for Bill Belichick’s career to be “sent to live on a farm upstate”.
29. Denver Broncos (1-4) – I have been a Rusty Wilson defender in this space throughout the season. And I still think Denver’s defense is more of an issue. But after watching the little sprite hump his way around the field in that pathetic 19-8 loss to Kansas City – missing throws, having throws get batted down, generally looking clueless – it is impossible not to think that Wilson should get the hook and become the league’s highest-paid backup.
30. Chicago Bears (1-5) – Why did the Bears keep Tyson Bagent on the roster coming out of the preseason if they don’t trust him to throw the ball? The guy they cut to keep Bagent – P.J. Walker – was busy beating the 49ers on Sunday while the Bears were busy calling wide receiver screen after wide receiver screen for their backup quarterback.
31. New York Giants (1-5) – No, I would not expect that defensive effort to continue for New York. The Giants have been so bad for so much of this season that I think that Sunday’s shocking play – they held Buffalo scoreless for three quarters for the first time since 2018 – was an anomaly rather than an inkling of positive defensive play to come.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-6) – It’s pretty tough not to cover a 13.5-point spread when the other team stakes you a 14-0 lead. Forget about Bryce Young; Carolina isn’t going to win until it gets healthy on defense. They were down their three top secondary players and three of their top four linebackers against the Dolphins last Sunday. They really never stood a chance.
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