NFL Power Rankings Week 6
It is an age-old handicapper dilemma: do you trust your eyes, or do you trust The Numbers?
Last week, my two top NFL totals involved the Saints-Patriots and Jets-Broncos games. And I was faced with a choice: do I follow my systems and follow the mathematics for my top play, or should I throw the stats out the window and go with what I’ve seen on tape?
The Saints and Patriots have been two of the worst offenses in football. They were squaring off in Foxboro with a modest total of 39.0, and I had a feeling that one (or both) of the offenses were due for a breakout. The Numbers backed that up. The Patriots were dead last in the league in offensive yards per point at 23.3 and were coming off a game in which they put up a OYPP of 84.3. I could explain to you the statistical deviance of both of those numbers, but let’s just say that they are both very, very far to the right of the bell curve.
New Orleans wasn’t far behind. They were last in the league in red zone efficiency and also one of the league’s worst in OYPP. When you add in some other factors – what both teams scored and allowed in the first half of the previous game*, the fact that both teams were desperate for a win off two straight losses - then Sunday’s matchup was primed to be a bit higher-scoring than expected.
On the other hand, we have the Jets and Broncos. This bet was based purely on the fact that Denver’s defense looks like one of the worst the NFL has seen in the past decade. I mean, they can’t stop anyone. They had recently given up 70 points to Miami one week after allowing 35 points to a subpar Washington offense. And after watching every snap of Denver’s 31-28 win over Chicago in Week 4 twice (one when it happened, once when I rewatch the games on Monday) I was further convinced that the Broncos absolutely cannot stop anyone.
These are the types of situations that gamblers are put in every single week. Professionals. Squares. Guys betting $20 a game. It doesn’t matter who you are; you still have to make The Decision.
Analytics has been creeping into sports and gambling for the past 20 years. To the point now where it dominates decision-making. I have never subscribed to a purely mathematical decision-making model. After all: sports are played by humans. Humans are irrational, emotional creatures and they don’t always do what they are “supposed” to do. You can’t make every decision based purely on The Numbers.
Well, in this instance I went with the stats. The result was a 7-Unit loss on the Saints-Patriots ‘over’…despite New Orleans breaking out for 34 points. It’s pretty tough to lose an ‘over’ in a game where one team rings up 34 points, man. And I had to sit and watch in a mix of relief and frustration as the Jets and Broncos combined for 52 points (against a 42.5-point total) to easily beat their number for a consolation 5-Unit win.
Go with your instinct? Or follow The Numbers? The chicken? Or the egg?
And I can’t wait to wrestle with those decisions again this weekend!
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-0) – How much longer before some idiots in the bobblehead media start floating the idea of an undefeated 49ers season? Because you know it is coming. The 49ers have been overwhelming, posting an average margin of victory of nearly 20 points per game and winning four of their five games by more than two touchdowns. However, they have also faced just one team (Dallas) that looks like a legitimate playoff contender. So, let’s slow down on crowning this group just yet.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) – The Eagles have never lost to the Jets. Never. They are 12-0 straight up since the series started in 1973. This century, the Eagles are 6-0 SU and ATS against New York, winning those six games by an average of 14.2 point per game. The most recent showdown was a 33-18 Eagles win in December of 2021.
3. Miami Dolphins (4-1) – I hate so to say ‘I told you so’ with De’Von Achane, but I absolutely told everyone that would listen that this kid was going to be good. The rookie is the NFL’s second-leading rusher and is averaging an absolutely insane 12.4 yards per carry. Unfortunately, he will miss the next several weeks with a knee injury. But something tells me Miami’s offense – which is on a record-setting pace – will be just fine.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) – Patrick Mahomes has only faced one other defense as putrid as the one he will match up against Thursday. That was Chicago in Week 3, and the Chiefs had their best offensive output of the season, ringing up 41 points in a convincing win. Kansas City has beaten Denver a jaw-dropping 15 straight times, although only one of the last five wins has been by double-digits.
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) – What is more fun than betting against the Cowboys and watching them get their asses handed to them? I say nothing. Maybe those wins over the Patriots, Jets and Giants (combined record: 4-11) weren’t as impressive as they seemed at the time? But it is the NFL. And the Cowboys. And a rebound win over the Chargers this week – even though I don’t think the Chargers are any good – would put the Cowboys Hype Train right back on the rails.
6. Buffalo Bills (3-2) – The Bills are lucky that Jacksonville turned the ball over three times in their game last Sunday, or Buffalo would’ve lost that game by 30. Buffalo was completely lackluster in all phases and absolutely crippled themselves with penalties. The 11 accepted penalties for 109 only scratch the surface of how much mistakes cost this team.
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) – OK, so I can understand the idea of going for the jugular on 3rd-and-goal from the Pittsburgh 5-yard line with 4:03 to play. But a lob pass? Why not run the ball there? The Ravens could’ve burned 40+ more seconds – if they didn’t score – and then kicked a field goal to go up five points. With the way Pittsburgh’s offense had been playing, a five-point lead would’ve felt like a 15-point cushion.
8. Detroit Lions (4-1) – Detroit’s offense has scored 30 or more points in three of their last four games. They will face a stiff test from Tampa Bay’s front seven on Sunday. But the Lions are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road so far this year and 6-1 SU and ATS away from home dating back to last season. The Lions are 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13 games overall.
9. Cleveland Browns (2-2) – No one knows what is going on with the Deshaun Watson injury situation, and that has all but frozen the action on the 49ers-Browns game this weekend. I don’t think he is going to play. Watson didn’t practice with the team Monday or Tuesday – and this is coming off a bye week – and there is obviously more going on with this situation than what is being reported in the press. Typical Browns.
10. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – Pete Carroll is just 4-6 ATS during the regular season coming out of a bye week. Seattle is just 5-17 ATS after a week of rest over the last 22 years.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) – Since 2000, the Steelers have made the playoffs 12 of the 13 seasons in which they won three of their first five games. The Steelers have gone 46 straight games without scoring 30 or more points and winning a game, and the Steelers have still yet to score a rushing touchdown this season. It isn’t pretty, but it works.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) – It took a month, but the Jaguars were finally able to execute on third downs. They were killer on the money down against the Bills, converting 10 of 18 third downs against a fantastic Bills defense. The Jaguars had been converting roughly one of every four third downs in their first four games of the season, and we’ll see if that success will continue this week against the Colts.
13. New Orleans Saints (3-2) – New Orleans is ranked No. 4 in total defense, boasting Top 10 units against both the run and the pass. They are also getting reinforcements this week with the return of suspended safety Marcus Maye. This week marks New Orleans’ fourth road game in five weeks, and it will be interesting to see what they have left in the tank.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) – Tampa Bay is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games overall but is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog. Tampa Bay’s terrible rushing offense (No. 25 at 87 yards per game) is not going to do a thing against Detroit’s No. 1 rushing defense. So how you feel about betting this game really is all about how you feel about backing Baker Mayfield to make enough plays to upset the Lions.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) – I hate to join the chorus here, but last week that really did look like the Bengals we’ve come to expect. Now, Cincinnati was facing Arizona, who sucks. And the Bengals defense is still an absolute mess (No. 21 overall and No. 31 in rushing defense). However, the offense showed its first signs of life, and I will be surprised if we don’t see a shootout Sunday with the Seahawks.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) – Do you trust Brandon Staley to have his guys ready after a bye week? Me neither. That said, the Chargers are 5-2 ATS off a bye week over the last seven years.
17. Tennessee Titans (2-3) – What are we supposed to do with team? I think that they are much worse than their numbers suggest, and they should get smoked by the Ravens in Europe this week. However, the Titans are 4-0 ATS after a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. These two teams have met five times since 2017, and the Titans are 3-2 SU and ATS despite being the underdog in all five meetings.
18. Los Angeles Rams (2-3) – Puka and Cooper showed that they can co-exist without any problems, as the dynamic duo combined for 15 catches and 189 yards for Los Angeles against Philadelphia. They should run circles around an overmatched Cardinals secondary this week, and the Rams are a dominating 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Cardinals.
19. Atlanta Falcons (3-2) – Credit where credit is due: when Desmond Ridder absolutely needed to deliver, down one point with the ball and less than two minutes to play, he did. He was much better about moving his eyes and not staring down receivers, and that made a huge difference. But I am still not buying Ridder. However, he came through when Atlanta needed him on Sunday. This offense is diverse and has a load of weapons – which will only get more dangerous when Cordarrelle Patterson gets up to speed.
20. Washington Commanders (2-3) – Sam Howell is on pace to take 99 sacks this season. The guy has already shown legit signs that he could be a franchise quarterback. But he is going to get killed. Also, what is going on with Washington’s back seven? The Commanders have one of the best front fours in football, and everyone is healthy. So, is this a scheme issue (seriously Ron Rivera, the Cover-2 is deader than Diane Feinstein) or is it a personnel issue? And should we be blindly betting the Commanders ‘over’ until they figure it out?
21. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) – Weird. Anthony Richardson is out with an injury. Again. It’s almost like this inexperienced, undisciplined, reckless rookie shouldn’t have been out there to begin with! Gardner Minshew will now have a few weeks to prove what I’ve been saying in this space for years: that the guy should be starting for an NFL team.
22. Houston Texans (2-3) – The Texans lost the game, but I felt like they outplayed Atlanta for most of that Week 5 matchup. Not only that, but C.J. Stroud’s touchdown drive to take the lead late in the fourth quarter was a glimpse of what this kid is going to be doing over the next decade. Houston is going to be a handful for some teams over the next three months. They won’t win a lot of games. But they aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.
23. Green Bay Packers (2-3) – That interception that Jordan Love threw to Robert Spillane is really one of the worst INTs that you will see a quarterback toss all season long. I mean, that wasn’t even close. It is starting to look like my first instinct about this Packers team – that they stink and that Aaron Rodgers covered up for a lot of flaws on this roster – is spot on. This is clearly a team to fade the rest of the season.
24. New England Patriots (1-4) – With 9:48 to play in the third quarter and down 24-0 the Patriots were facing 4th-and-3 from the New Orleans 40-yard-line, Bill Belichick decided to punt. That was it. For me, that was the moment that the dynasty died. It was over right there. Belichick looks like a guy who doesn’t even care that his team sucks and isn’t even attempting to fight it anymore.
25. Minnesota Vikings (1-4) – Justin Jefferson is on IR and will be missing for the next four weeks. His presence is worth a full point on the spread, as the line dropped from the Vikings as 3.5-point favorites at Chicago on Monday to 2.5-point chalk Tuesday after Jefferson was ruled out. Minnesota has won four straight and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Bears.
26. New York Jets (2-3) – Losing Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season is another huge blow to a Jets offensive line that just couldn’t afford to lose any more guys. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t gotten hurt in that opening game, he would’ve been injured by now. The Jets are just 1-5 ATS after a SU win.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3) – I can’t say enough good things about Maxx Crosby. That guy is singlehandedly carrying this Raiders defense. I still can’t say that I was overly impressed with Las Vegas in their win over the Packers on Monday. You know that Josh McDaniels is going to be up for this week’s game against his former mentor. Vegas beat New England 30-24 last December on the strength of a running game that racked up 206 yards on the ground. This Raiders team hasn’t shown nearly that ability, so it will be on Jimmy G’s shoulders. That shouldn’t be comforting for Raiders backers.
28. Arizona Cardinals (1-4) – The fight is there. The talent is not.
29. Chicago Bears (1-4) – More designed runs for Justin Fields and more deep shots down the field; this looks more like the offense the Bears showed flashes of during a high-scoring six-week stint last year. I am still not buying this team, though. They still don’t have a defensive coordinator (feels like you need one of those in the NFL) and they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after covering the spread.
30. Denver Broncos (1-4) – This defense absolutely cannot stop anyone. They are allowing 450 yards, 36.2 points and 187.6 rushing yards per game – all dead last. This was a Top 10 defense in 2021 and 2022, and the Broncos have fielded a Top 10 group in six of the last nine years. If you are looking for reasons why this is one of the worst teams in football, is starts and ends on this side of the ball.
31. New York Giants (1-4) – The Giants have not run a single offensive play with the lead yet this season. They have also trailed by at least two touchdowns in every single game.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-5) – The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and they are 3-8 ATS as a double-digit underdog. There is really not much more to say about a team that hasn’t covered a spread yet this season and that has allowed an average of nearly 30 points per game.
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