NFL Power Rankings Week 5
Everyone knows everything after the fact.
If you learn anything in the Gambling World, it is that everyone is a genius after a game is played. Everything seems so obvious after it happens. So clear. What you should’ve done. Who you should’ve bet. Which lines were ridiculous and which ones you were smart to stay away from.
The same thing can be said about those that watch and critique the NFL. Which, these days, is the majority of males (and, thanks to Taylor Swift, a growing number of females) in this country.
Every decision is so undeniable after the fact. Bad play calls. Bad quarterback decision. Bad coaching maneuvers.
Now, a big part of my job as a handicapper is to discern why things happened. I like to say that you can’t know where you’re going unless you know where you’ve been. However, there is a difference between trying to pick part the how’s and whys of weekly football results than trying to be a bobblehead Monday Morning Quarterback.
I could talk about this for days. Instead, I’m going to focus on two key coaching decisions that are being crushed for being OBVIOUSLY thanks to the clarity of hindsight. In both instances, the coaches, who decided to go for controversial 4th-and-1s, saw their players fail. However, one of the coaches still won the game and the other lost. Both are catching flak for their calls. However, I feel like the context in both situations is being lost.
First was the decision by Matt Eberflus to go for it on 4th-and-one from the Denver 18-yard-line a 28-28 game late the fourth quarter. It was absolutely the right decision. The Broncos defense is a joke. They hadn’t stopped the Bears (who gained almost 500 total yards) all day. And if Chicago had picked up that first down, they would’ve been able to run the clock down and essentially end the game with a field goal.
Not only that, but Chicago’s defense – which was down four of its top five players in the secondary – is a train wreck on its own. After the Bears were stopped on 4th-and-1, it took Denver all of one single play to flip the field and get themselves into field goal range.
The problem wasn’t Eberflus’ decision to go for it. The problem was the play call (as well as the decision to call a timeout prior to the play). The play call – an inside trap run – was atrocious. A sneak, something on the edge, or a run-pass option with Fields was the way to go.
Now, compare that to Brandon Staley’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from his own 34-yard-line with a 24-17 lead and 3:34 to play. For the second week in a row, Staley made the decision to go for it on fourth down on his own side of the field – and failed!
Eberflus’ decision, taken in context, made sense. Staley’s did not.
The Raiders were forced to start rookie backup Aiden O’Connell in this game. That is who Staley would’ve been punting the ball back to. The Chargers defense, led by Khalil Mack’s six sacks, had been dominating O’Connell all game. So why not try to pin the Raiders inside the 20 and make O’Connell go on a heroic, length-of-the-field drive to tie the game?
Again, this was a completely different situation than the week prior in Minnesota. In that game the Chargers were up 28-24, Minnesota was out of timeouts, and with 1:51 left in the game Los Angeles was in a similar position to Chicago against Denver: get one yard and you can essentially run out the clock and win the game.
Even though that play against the Vikings didn’t work out (the Chargers won the game anyway), I could understand the logic.
However, the decision against the Raiders was inexcusable. The fact that Staley got bailed out and his team won (again) in spite of him shouldn’t paper over the fact that Staley is clearly out of his depth in regards to game management decisions.
(Remember, this is the guy whose calamitous decision to call a timeout in a Week 17 game against the Raiders two years ago cost his team a playoff appearance.)
I could also throw in Ron Rivera’s decision not to go for two after his team scored late against the Eagles. Or Brian Daboll’s decision not to kick a field goal on a fourth down on Monday, which eventually led to a Daniel Jones pick-six that essentially ended that game in the third quarter.
But the point here is that you can’t just gauge things based on the outcomes. I have always disagreed with Bill Parcells’ “You are what your record says you are” comment. Football analysis is more than that. And as analytics has become more mainstream, I still feel like more and more context is getting lost when it comes to deciphering weekly results on the gridiron.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) – There has been a lot of talk about the running back market over the last six months. Guys like Christian McCaffrey (and Bijan Robinson) are showing on a weekly basis that just like any other position, when you have one of those elite players there really is no substitute. The 49ers are now 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. San Francisco is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games against NFC opponents.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) – That A.J. Brown touchdown catch-and-run was a masterclass in spatial intelligence and will be one of the best runs of the season. The Eagles are just 1-3 ATS in their four games this season but had very little trouble handling the Bucs as a road favorite two Mondays ago. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Rams, but the two teams haven’t met since 2020.
3. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) – It looks like the early money in this week’s showdown with the 49ers is coming in on Dallas. The line opened at 4.5 and has dropped a full point. A lot has been made of San Francisco’s postseason success against the Cowboys the past few seasons. Those last two meetings were just 19-12 and 23-17, though, so it is not as if these games have been blowouts. The Cowboys won the three previous meetings (between 2016-2020) before those back-to-back losses.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) – They just keep doing just enough to win, don’t they? The Chiefs are now 6-20 ATS as a favorite of more than 3.0 points and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite overall. Kansas City is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
5. Buffalo Bills (3-1) – And that right there is why you don’t overreact in the NFL. The Bills were focused and motivated and absolutely unloaded on the Dolphins last week. However, that could put them in a letdown situation here against the Jaguars. These two teams have seen six straight meetings decided by a touchdown or less, most recently in 2021. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a win of 14 or more.
6. Miami Dolphins (3-1) – I don’t have the figures in front of me, but I don’t imagine the ATS record of teams favored by double digits after a loss of 28 points or more is very good over the last 20 years in the NFL.
7. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) – Having already faced. Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, facing Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week marked the third time this season that Baltimore has faced a rookie quarterback. Ten of the last 16 meetings with the Steelers have been decided by four points or fewer and 13 of the last 16 have been decided by a touchdown or less.
8. Detroit Lions (3-1) – The Lions have the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL right now. They are allowing just 60.8 yards per game on the ground, and they have held all four opponents to season-low yardage totals. Now they are facing a Panthers team that gutted them for 320 yards on the ground last season in a 37-23 Carolina win.
9. Cleveland Browns (2-2) – Vintage. That was some vintage Browns $h!# last week with the way they handled Deshaun Watson’s injury. It was also completely on-brand for Watson, who was medically cleared to play but decided not to go against the Ravens. Watson is a scumbag. The Browns should’ve known this before they signed him. Now they are getting exactly what they deserve.
10. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – The Seahawks were lucky they were facing a vastly inferior opponent on Monday night because it’s unusual for a team to make the number of mistakes that Seattle did (penalties) and have a 12-minute time of possession deficit and still win handily. The Seahawks are on a bye this week.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – Kenny Pickett is example No. 2,466 of a young quarterback’s development being sabotaged by playing too early. He’s hurt (again) and has been victimized by a weak offensive line and a horrendous offensive coordinator. I am very much in the “Fire Canada” tent. The underdog is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 Baltimore-Pittsburgh games, and you have to ask yourself if there is very much of a drop-off between Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) – Normally, the early-season bye is a detriment to a team. I think it is good timing here for the Chargers so that stars Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler can heal up. Also, who knew Khalil Mack still had it in him? I would still put his season sack number O/U around 10.0 despite getting six in one game.
13. Washington Commanders (2-2) – How can you not root for Sam Howell? That kid is a warrior. That was a fantastic bounce back effort after his flop against Buffalo. If you kick out that four-interception debacle, then Howell has four touchdowns, one interception, is completing 67.5 percent of his passes, and is averaging over 260 yards per game. You have to question how much the Commanders have left in the tank, though, after that physical, emotional loss to rival Philadelphia.
14. Green Bay Packers (2-2) – I’m starting to get the feeling that I should stick with my first instinct on this team and that they aren’t very good. They really have not played well in any of their four games, despite starting 3-1 ATS. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday Night Football games, but they are just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite overall.
15. Los Angeles Rams (2-2) – The Legend of Puka continues to grow. Nacua had another monster game against the Colts and could be getting reinforcements with Cooper Kupp eligible to come off IR this week. Keep an eye on Matt Stafford this week. He was not moving well at all after his hip injury and will have his hands full against a powerful Eagles pass rush. The Rams are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) – I’m not entirely sure that staying in London for the week is an advantage for the Jaguars. This is a young team. Do you think they are going to maintain focus during a week in a strange city? The Jaguars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and they are 5-1 ATS as an underdog. However, they are 7-15 ATS after a win by 14 or more points.
17. Tennessee Titans (2-2) – This team just keeps getting little to no respect. But if they win in Indianapolis this week, and Jacksonville loses to Buffalo, then the Titans could find themselves on top of the AFC South yet again. Tennessee has beaten the Colts five straight times, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Indy.
18. New England Patriots (1-3) – The Patriots are dead last in the NFL in yards per point at 23.3. Turnovers, like the two crippling ones Mac Jones committed that basically ended Sunday’s game in Dallas in the second quarter, and general inefficiency, have crushed this offense. Also, that Matthew Judon injury is a killer for a defense that has been playing fantastic this season.
19. New Orleans Saints (2-2) – The Saints are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 road games and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog. New Orleans has yet to cover a spread this season and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 dating back to last November.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) – The Bucs defense held New Orleans to just 197 total yards, the lowest total ever in the Tampa-New Orleans series. They also limited Alvin Kamara to just 33 yards on 13 catches, the first time in NFL history a player caught 13 passes and failed to gain 70 or more yards. Also, this should be the year that Antoine Winfield makes All-Pro and gets recognized as one of the best safeties in the sport.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) – Two weeks ago, Cincinnati was an 8.0-point favorite in Los Angeles. This week they are 3.0. The dip is real. This team looks like a mess, and there is absolutely no way I would back them as a road favorite. The Bengals are dead last in the NFL in pass plays over 20 yards with just four in four weeks. Last year they averaged over three per game.
22. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Desmond Ridder needs to go. It is not as if he is some high-upside signal caller that brings excitement and juice to the Falcons offense and just makes young-quarterback mistakes. No. Ridder’s ceiling is ‘game manager’ and ‘guy who doesn’t screw up too badly’. However, Ridder can’t do very basic, simple things. Kudos to the ESPN crew for pointing out concrete examples of how Ridder is not functioning as an NFL-caliber quarterback. This offense may be the worst in football right now.
23. Minnesota Vikings (1-3) – I’m not sure why, but my Spidey sense is tingling this week when I look at that Kansas City-Minnesota line. The Vikings are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. And if they have proven anything over the last two years, it is that they play a ton of close games. The Vikings have failed to cover in five straight home games and have yet to win at home this season. Are they due?
24. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – Much like Arizona, Indianapolis looks like a team that is taking solace in its losses. This team is clearly overachieving. And they would be doing even better if they were getting anything from former Pro Bowlers Shaq Leonard and Ryan Kelly. I said in my season preview that the Colts would likely be a good ‘over’ bet early in the season, and they are now 3-1 against the total thanks to both an offense and a defense in the Top 10 in YPP.
25. New York Jets (1-3) – This is the Nathaniel Hackett Revenge Game. But as far as motivations, that’s pretty flimsy stuff. I think more of a motivation is the number of people in the organization that are currently playing/coaching/working to keep their jobs after this year. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 16-33 ATS in their 49 road games.
26. Houston Texans (2-2) – If you remember correctly, someone was a lot higher on the young Texans than the general public this preseason. I still say they would be doing even better with Davis Mills under center, but to this point there is no denying that C.J. Stroud looks fantastic. Houston is listed as an underdog this week in Atlanta, but I expect them to continue to garner most of the public action as that number creeps down.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) – Aidan O’Connell is another example of how the NFL preseason doesn’t mean anything. O’Connell looked great this August but was completely overmatched against actual NFL competition. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on Monday Night Football, and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of a field goal or less.
28. New York Giants (1-2) – Is it bad when you are a football team that can’t tackle? Also, the special teams debacle on Monday night was another layer of humiliation to this season. Right now, this team can’t stop anyone, and its best offensive play seems to be Daniel Jones dropping back to pass and then taking off running.
29. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) – This is still not even close to a good football team. And injuries have crippled the defense. But these guys are playing with more heart than any Arizona team that I’ve seen in several years. Despite being severely outmatched, Arizona was one failed two-point conversion away from cutting last week’s game to 21-18 heading into the fourth quarter. This team has shown a ton of fight.
30. Carolina Panthers (0-4) – For all the talk about Bryce Young, who is off to a shaky start to say the least, the Panthers defense is turning into a major problem for this team. Injuries have gutted this side of the ball, and they may be without as many as five starters (Shaq Thompson, Jaycee Horn, and Henry Anderson are definitely out, Donte Jackson and Xavier Woods are questionable) this week in Detroit.
31. Denver Broncos (1-3) – Nothing about Denver’s win in Chicago should give them any confidence or hope. This team plays accidental defense. What I mean by that is any stop that they get is purely accidental. The Bears are a tire fire, and they still rung up nearly 500 yards against them.
32. Chicago Bears (0-4) – There is no bottom.
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