NFL Power Rankings Week 3
In last week’s NFL Power Rankings, I talked about avoiding the overreaction. What normally happens is that bettors usually freak out over the results of Week 1 and try to glean some hidden meaning from each team’s initial performance. They do this instead of accepting that it is a long season and that people just sit back, relax, and let the season unfold.
The most obvious form of regression and overreaction between Week 1 and Week 2 this season involved the totals market.
NFL teams played some ugly, ugly football in the season openers. The result was that a whopping 12 of 16 games in Week 1 stayed ‘under’ the total in one of the lowest-scoring opening weekends in the past decade.
The sportsbooks overcorrected the totals in Week 2, though. That, combined with sharper execution, led to a windfall for ‘over’ bettors last weekend. A stunning 13 of 16 games went ‘over’ the total, including the Thursday Night Football game and one of the Monday Night Football affair.
That is the perfect example of how bettors should have anticipated and bet on a normal reversion to the mean. They could’ve cleaned up last weekend if they determined that Week 1 was a statistical fluke and laid their money out in Week 2 on teams to snap back to normal historical trends.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) – Bettors across the country were crying foul when the Rams kicked a ‘meaningless’ field goal on the final play for the backdoor cover or ‘push’ against the Niners. San Francisco really had no business covering the spread in that game. Now they get their home opener on a short week against a Giants team that is staying on the West Coast and hasn’t been able to stop anyone.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) – I think you can attribute some of the choppy play by the Eagles to having two new coordinators. Eagles OC Brian Johnson has been a bit of a mess. However, at least he was smart enough to realize that the Eagles could run for seven yards on every play against the Vikings. Still, there are red flags. The fact Philly scored to go up 12 with 4:13 to play and then kicked the extra point instead of going for two is amateur hour.
3. Dallas Cowboys (2-0) – The Cowboys never play well in Arizona, or against the Cardinals in general. Since Arizona’s 20-7 upset win over the Cowboys in the 1999 playoffs, Dallas is just 7-11 against Arizona. The Cowboys have also dumped two straight (including a 25-22 home loss last year) and six of seven against some pretty feeble Cardinals squads.
4. Miami Dolphins (2-0) – Literally, there are thunderstorms or scattered thunderstorms forecast in Miami for the next 14 days. It is going to rain all week and don’t be surprised if there are sloppy conditions for Miami’s home opener against the Broncos this Sunday.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) – A visit from the Chicago Bears, a team that plays a soft Cover-2 as its base, should be just what the Chiefs need to get their offense back on track. The Chiefs are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 11 points or more, including going 0-4 ATS in this role last season.
6. Buffalo Bills (1-1) – That is exactly what the Bills should’ve done to an overmatched Las Vegas squad that was at a massive situational advantage. Buffalo is an outstanding 22-13 ATS on the road dating back to the start of the 2019 season. They are just 8-8 ATS in their last 16 away from home, though, and already lost on the road to the Jets.
7. Baltimore Ravens (2-0) – Even though the Ravens were down Ronnie Staley and Tyler Linderbaum, they went into Cincinnati and pounded out 178 rushing yards and allowed zero sacks. Geno Stone’s interception was obviously the play of the game. Not only was a great pick, but it was a total momentum changer. Instead of Cincinnati going up 17-13, the Ravens marched down for a TD to stake a 20-10 lead that would be too much for the Bengals.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) – Vintage Steelers football. Pittsburgh did a lot wrong in that game on Monday. And Matt Canada’s bizarre call – Kenny Pickett quarterback draw – on a crucial 3rd-and-2 late in the fourth quarter is just one of 50 examples of why people can’t stand him. Yet at the end of the day, the Steelers dominated the Browns (again) and came through as an underdog (again).
9. Cleveland Browns (1-1) – Nailed it. Fast forward to the 6:10 mark of my Cleveland Browns season preview and the next 45 seconds I explain that Nick Chubb is absolutely going to get hurt this year. And voila. Don’t be surprised if the Browns ring up Kareem Hunt. Deshaun Watson definitely made some plays on MNF. But his two 15-yard penalties were drive-killers, and his fumble (returned for a touchdown) was unforgiveable. Watson has looked out of control through two games, and this team is really beat up, physically and emotionally, heading into its date with Tennessee.
10. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) – Seattle needs to regain its home field advantage. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and only 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS against NFC opponents, and that includes a 30-24 home loss to the Panthers just last December.
11. New Orleans Saints (2-0) – Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. The Saints have a tough situation here having to play on the road on a short week after their Monday night divisional fight.
12. Detroit Lions (1-1) – The Lions secondary has been strafed through the first two weeks, allowing nearly 540 passing yards and 28.5 points per game. Detroit has been much better against the run, though, allowing just 86 rushing yards per game (No. 9). Detroit was solid in bounce back situations last year, going 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three after a loss, winning by a combined 96-33 score.
13. Atlanta Falcons (2-0) – Desmond Ridder should’ve thrown two more interceptions on Sunday, including what would’ve been a walk-in pick six by Jaire Alexander that would’ve changed that game. Bijan Robinson is proving that he is The Truth and he is absolutely responsible for both of Atlanta’s wins this season. I’m predicting a Pro Bowl season for the rookie.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) – Is anyone else getting the feeling that Austin Ekeler’s “injury” might be his way of pushing back against the Chargers organization for screwing him on his contract? Ekeler reportedly has “no timetable” for his return despite an ankle injury that didn’t really slow him down in Week 1. Something smells fishy here. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against NFC opponents.
15. New England Patriots (0-2) – I’m not going to crush the Patriots for losing two games to teams that I have ranked in the Top 5. Losing both at home definitely hurts, and the Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001. Don’t expect the criticism of Mac Jones to go away any time soon. The Patriots face the Jets, Cowboys and Saints defenses – three of the eight best in the league – over the next three weeks.
16. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) – Uh-oh. Joe Burrow reaggravated his calf injury. He likely will not play this week, and that will put Jake Browning under the microscope. Cincinnati should get some juice playing on Monday Night Football. But after back-to-back divisional games, and now without Burrow, I can see them playing well for the first 10 minutes on Monday and then cratering emotionally when the supposedly overmatched Rams refuse to roll over.
17. Washington Commanders (2-0) – Last week’s win marked the largest road comeback for this franchise since 1990 and the first 2-0 start for Washington since 2011. The Commanders never scored 35 points in the 50-game tenure of former offensive coordinator Scott Turner and managed to do it in just Eric Bienemy’s second outing.
18. Green Bay Packers (1-1) – On the one hand, Green Bay was one fourth down stop away from going 2-0 with two road wins to start the year. On the other hand, the Packers were completely outplayed by the Falcons, outgained 446-224, and Jordan Love completely disappeared in the fourth quarter.
19. Los Angeles Rams (1-1) – Well, I was obviously wrong about this team. The Rams lack talent and depth. And over the course of the season, that will hold this team back. But their offensive game planning and execution are exceptional. Puka Nacua looks unguardable. And if Cooper Kupp comes back healthy, this Rams attack is going to be tough to stop.
20. New York Jets (1-1) – This is one of the worst offensive lines in football. It already cost them Aaron Rodgers. It clearly cost them in Week 2 against the Cowboys. And it will likely be an anchor around this team’s season. The fact that Nathaniel Hackett is the man in charge of fixing this offense without Aaron Rodgers or NFL-caliber tackles should not give comfort to Jets fans. The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots since December of 2015, the longest streak in the NFL (0-14).
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) – The Jaguars haven’t looked good on offense in either game. They were held to just over 200 yards and 17 points in the first 55 minutes of the Colts game and then flopped around for 60 minutes against the Chiefs. I could not believe that after securing a first-and-goal from the 1-yard-line in the third quarter that the Jags decided to throw three straight passes instead of ramming it in on the ground. If the Jaguars are as good as everyone else thinks they are, then they will bury a banged-up Texans team this week.
22. Tennessee Titans (1-1) – You just can’t lay points to a Mike Vrabel-coached teams. The Titans are 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog, have covered the spread in four straight when catching points, and are 18-7 ATS the last 25 games in which they have been a dog. They are dogs again this week in Cleveland.
23. Minnesota Vikings (0-2) – Seven turnovers in two games is insane. The Vikings have also been overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in each of their first two games. After going 11-0 in one-score games last year, the Vikings are 0-2 this season. This is what regression to the mean looks like, boys and girls.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) – There is no way that Baker Mayfield is going to continue to be as efficient as he has been the first two weeks for the rest of the season. No way. Chicago and Minnesota both have terrible defenses. Mayfield went 12-for-13 for 141 yards on third down against Chicago, and he is 20-for-23 for 201 yards and two TDs on third down through two games. That is unsustainable for the little sprite.
25. Denver Broncos (0-2) – I think it is hilarious how overtly annoyed and aggressively condescending Sean Payton is being toward Russell Wilson. Wilson hasn’t been great in the first two weeks, but I don’t think he’s been horrible. Losing two home games to two non-playoff teams is a terrible start to the Payton Era, though.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) – Devante Adams and Jakobi Meyers both suffered concussions in Las Vegas’ Week 2 blowout loss, and their status bears watching this week. Josh Jacobs became the first defending rushing champion to finish a game the next season with negative rushing yards.
27. New York Giants (1-1) – Daniel Jones is now 8-1-1 SU after a loss. In those 10 games, he has completed nearly 70 percent of his throws with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. Jones is only 8-11 SU in his career without Saquon Barkley, though, and Barkley is set to miss three weeks with an ankle injury. I don’t care that this team came back and beat Arizona. They look like garbage.
28. Carolina Panthers (0-2) – I think it is hilarious that after just two games, people are already starting to criticize and question Bryce Young. What the hell did people think was going to happen?!?!? Losing Shaq Thompson is a significant blow to this defense. Now the Panthers have to try to avoid a MNF letdown this week as they travel across the country to Seattle on a short week after a hard-fought divisional loss.
29. Indianapolis Colts (1-1) – I’m just going to keep harping on it: this is why you don’t start a rookie quarterback. Everyone in the Colts organization admitted that Anthony Richardson is a raw, long-term project. So why the hell is he out there when he has no idea what he’s doing? Richardson scored two more touchdowns. Great. But for the second straight week he finished the game on the sideline due to injury, and now he is set to miss Game 3 with a concussion. Get ready for some Minshew Magic.
30. Chicago Bears (0-2) – What. A. Mess. Chicago has played like trash. They are getting racked by injuries. The coaching has been horrendous. This team was supposed to be vastly improved from last year’s somewhat intentional 3-14 debacle. It is not. Justin Fields looks lost. The offense lacks any creativity. The defense is timid and vanilla. And the depth that $90 million in cap space was supposed to provide just isn’t there. Things will get worse before they get better.
31. Arizona Cardinals (0-2) – There are positives for this Cardinals team to take away from their two-game start. Josh Dobbs is showing some things. The Cards are playing hard on defense, and their offensive game plan is interesting. However, that was a gutting loss. Arizona isn’t going to win many games this year. So, blowing a 21-point lead like that at home is a game that could linger in this locker room. The Cards have lost nine straight games and six straight at home. They are 7-2 ATS at home against Dallas over the past 25 years.
32. Houston Texans (0-2) – Injuries have absolutely demolished this team. They are likely going to be without four projected offensive line starters and three of their top six secondary players this weekend in Jacksonville. It is absurdly irresponsible to trot out C.J. Stroud behind that offensive line. Stroud’s numbers against the Colts – 384 passing yards and two touchdowns – look nice. But 190 of the passing yards came in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided. That is what we call a Matt Stafford stat line.
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