NFL Power Rankings Week 17
We are still in the throes of the holiday season for one more exhausting, family-oriented week, so I am going to keep this short and sweet.
My advice over the next two weeks is this: good teams don’t put themselves in must-win situations.
One of the primary aspects that bettors and handicappers consider when wagering on any team in any sport is motivation. “What are these guys playing for and how hard are they going to play?”
When we get into the final two weeks of any NFL campaign, usually half of the games on the schedule pit teams that are fighting for the playoffs against teams that are already eliminated. The simple-minded and sloppy approach that square bettors take when approaching these games is that, “Well Team A HAS to win this game or else they won’t make the playoffs, so they are going to play well and cover that spread.”
Wrong.
First, good teams don’t put themselves in must-win situations. (If I repeat that enough times hopefully it will sear into your brain!) Teams are in must-win situations because they are shaky and untrustworthy. So, when you take shaky, untrustworthy teams, make them favorites, and put them in games against teams they “should” beat, then the oddsmakers are just setting the public up for a kick to the groin.
There is currently a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis all needed wins last week. All three got blown out. The Bills were 12-point favorites in a “must-win” game at Los Angeles against a Chargers team that was down to practice squad players. They nearly lost outright and were never close to covering the spread. And Denver, one of the worst teams against the spread in the NFL the past two seasons, also lost its “must-win” game at home to New England despite being a seven-point favorite.
Don’t get suckered into believe that just because teams need to win or want to win that they are actually going to exceed expectations. They have put themselves in these positions precisely because they have major flaws and weaknesses.
Not only that, but some teams absolutely love playing the spoiler. For teams that have slogged through terrible years and that have been eliminated from the postseason for weeks, the final games of the season allow them an opportunity to play meaningful football.
You don’t think the Bears would love to end Atlanta’s season on Sunday? Or that the Patriots would love to deal a death blow to Buffalo’s postseason aspirations? And in Week 18, a team like Carolina, whose season has been a dumpster fire from start to finish, gets an opportunity for a home game with playoff implications against Tampa Bay. You think the Panthers won’t be up for that one?
You don’t have to blatantly fade teams in “must-win” situations. But this is my annual warning not to get suckered into believing in them. More often than not, that misplaced belief will cost you.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3) – This week is a bit of a letdown spot for the Ravens after their dominating effort against San Francisco on Monday night. However, with home field advantage on the line, I wouldn’t expect anything but a game effort from Baltimore at home this week. The Ravens have seven wins against teams that are currently over .500 by 14 points or more. That is domination.
2. San Francisco 49ers (11-4) – I’m not going to pile on Brock Purdy. Enough people are doing that. He didn’t play well in a big game. It happens. Two of his interceptions also just happened to be passes that were batted into the air. I think that loss is going to benefit this veteran team as it gears up for the playoffs, and this still has to be considered the favorite to win the NFC.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) – I would have to agree with Devonta Smith’s ‘meh’ review of Philadelphia’s offensive performance against the Giants last week. Sure, they gained nearly 500 yards and scored 33 points. But many of their biggest plays were on broken plays, they fumbled the ball four times, and they only converted two of their four goal-to-go opportunities. The Eagles are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games, failing against the number by an average of 12.8 points per game.
4. Miami Dolphins (11-4) – That really was a heroic effort from Tyreek Hill last week. This guy still isn’t 100 percent. When Jaylen Waddle went out with a high ankle sprain (and I think Waddle won’t play this week), the Dolphins absolutely needed Hill to become That Guy. He did, and Dallas had no answer. Also, Miami has allowed just 14.8 points per game over their last six and this defense has taken on a completely different form with a healthy Jalen Ramsey.
5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5) – No one wants to lose back-to-back games. Why all the doom and gloom around this team, though? I hate the Cowboys as much as anyone. That doesn’t mean they are a terrible team, though. They lost a last-second game on the road against a really good Miami team. It happens. Dallas throttled Detroit 24-6 when they met last October, and the Cowboys haven’t lost to the Lions in over a decade.
6. Detroit Lions (11-4) – Congrats to the Lions for winning their first division title in 29 years. With their place in the postseason – including a home game – secure, will the Lions have a letdown this week on the road? This is Detroit’s fourth road game in five weeks. They have played great away from home over the last two months, though, winning four of six road games outright. Also, this team still has a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC if they can win out and get some help.
7. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) – This week will be the fifth meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals since January of 2022, with Kansas City losing three of those games outright. The Chiefs are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games and just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS dating back to Oct. 23. The arrow is very much pointed down for this group. I won’t be surprised to see them rebound this week, but this team may be headed for a one-and-done in the postseason.
8. Buffalo Bills (9-6) – Whoa. That was a completely unconvincing effort and win in Los Angeles last week. The Bills had a host of momentum after must-wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys. Did that sloppy, come-from-behind win over the Chargers last week actually blunt their momentum heading into a revenge game against the Patriots in Orchard Park this week? The Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Patriots, winning by an average of 17 points per game.
9. Cleveland Browns (10-5) – Joe Flacco is playing with house money and just continues to throw the ball as if he doesn’t give an F. He had two more first half interceptions last week, has thrown five in his last two games, and has seven interceptions in his four games as a starter. If he’s not careful this week, the Jets defense could turn those miscues into points.
10. Seattle Seahawks (8-7) – I said it last week and I will say it again: gutty. That was a gutty win by Seattle. That was a horrible situation for them, playing on the road, across the country, on a short week, against a team that thrives as an underdog, and Seattle held it together enough to steal a crucial win. That said, Seattle is just a couple of plays away from a six-game losing streak, so this team is riding the rails a bit.
11. Los Angeles Rams (8-7) – My Spidey sense is tingling a bit this week around the Rams. The Giants are incompetent losers. However, I can’t help but think that this is a bit of a trap game for this very young Rams team. They are off back-to-back wins and are cruising at 5-1 SU and ATS lately. Yet they must travel across country, likely playing in cold weather, and facing the dreaded 10 a.m. PST start. Oh, and the Rams are doing it as nearly a touchdown favorite, with 70 percent of the early action on them. Tread lightly.
12. Indianapolis Colts (8-7) – The Colts offense completely short-circuited after a fantastic 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to open the game. The Colts were held to 148 yards on 45 plays the rest of the game. The Colts have played five of their last seven games on the road, though, and they are averaging 30.5 points per game at home over the past two months.
13. Houston Texans (8-7) – Forget about the quarterback position for this team: Houston’s defense needs to get it together. DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy and he has plenty of talent and experience on that side of the ball. The Texans have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last eight games, surrendering 25.4 points per game over the last two months despite not facing a single Top 10 offense.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) – “Reeling” doesn’t even describe what is going on with this team right now. Trevor Lawrence looked like trash again, and now he has a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. Jacksonville is calling him questionable for this week’s game against Carolina. He’s not going to play. I simply don’t see the Jags risking his long-term future on two games. Either the Jaguars defense – which has been torched for an average of 29.5 points per game the last four weeks – steps up, or this team’s season will end short of the postseason.
15. Green Bay Packers (7-8) – The Packers have now gone ‘over’ in five straight games (and six of seven) and you have to wonder how you can trust a team that gives up 30 points to the Panthers. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and just 2-5 ATS against conference opponents.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) – Let’s not get carried away with Mason Rudolph. He was only 17-for-27 and his best throws were just tossing it up for George Pickens to go get it. Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 road games against NFC opponents. That includes a 24-17 win at Los Angeles over the Rams back in October.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) – I don’t think Jake Browning has turned back into a pumpkin, per se. He completed 28 of 42 pass for 335 yards against a very good Steelers defense on the road, after all. I think the Bengals are just really, really missing Jamar Chase.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) – Remember when the Bucs were debating over whether to trade Mike Evans at the deadline? This Bucs offense is absolutely on fire right now, scoring 93 points in three games. I can’t say enough good things about how Baker Mayfield has been throwing the ball over the last month. Will it continue? Tampa has beaten the Saints three straight times and are on a 7-2 ATS rush. Tampa Bay is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games, though, and there was an early reverse line movement on this Saints spread this week.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-8) – I love Nick Mullens’ irrational confidence in himself after that loss to the Lions. Mullens’ noodle arm was on full display on that last throw. And I really hope Mullens isn’t trying to take credit for amazing plays made by his receivers, specifically Justin Jefferson’s jaw-dropping 3rd-and-27 catch with 1:26 left in the fourth quarter.
20. New Orleans Saints (7-8) – The Saints are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall and they are a weak 1-4 ATS on the road. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS against conference opponents and their only two wins over their last six games came at home against feeble Giants and Panthers teams. One silver lining: New Orleans is 23-11 ATS as a road underdog.
21. Atlanta Falcons (7-8) – I give up.
22. Denver Broncos (7-8) – You have to wonder if that three-point loss to the Patriots last week is going to linger in this locker room this week. Denver has now lost back-to-back games and three of their last four. The only team they’ve beaten since their five-game winning streak was snapped was the Chargers team that they face this week. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in that series dating back to 2019.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8) – I’m sorry, but I’m not jumping on this bandwagon. The Raiders won last week thanks to two defensive touchdowns on back-to-back plays and were victorious despite their quarterback not completing a pass in the final three quarters. That is a fluke. That’s an absolute fluke.
24. Chicago Bears (6-9) – Here is why the Bears need to move off Justin Fields: his interception in the end zone with 10:22 to play in the game. Chicago was up 24-10 and was 1st-and-10 from the Arizona 14. No matter what, a field goal makes it a three-score game with under 10 minutes to play. And it is first down! Fields underthrew Khalil Herbert and it got picked off the in the end zone. That’s unforgiveable. You can’t miss short on that throw. Fields is in his third season in the NFL, and that is basic, game management 101 stuff. If he doesn’t have something like that figured out now, then he’s never going to have it.
25. New York Jets (6-9) – The Jets have dominated the Browns over the past decade-plus, going 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games against Cleveland. That includes a thrilling 31-30 win at Cleveland last September in a game in which then-Jets/now-Browns quarterback Joe Flacco threw two touchdowns in the final 1:55 for an improbable comeback. There was also 30 points scored in the fourth quarter of that game, which was otherwise dominated by defense.
26. Tennessee Titans (5-10) – What the hell was Ryan Tannehill doing on Tennessee’s final drive? The veteran took two terrible sacks, including one after the Titans had made it to midfield and didn’t have any timeouts left. And his decision not to spike the ball after that sack – instead throwing a 3-yard pass that ended the game – was equally dumbfounding. The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
27. New York Giants (5-10) – This team still looks like a disorganized, sloppy mess on both sides of the ball. It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is; New York’s problems are legion. I will commend this team for not mailing it in, though. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10. The Giants have gone 4-0 ATS at home since Oct. 3, and I don’t expect them to roll over for the Rams.
28. Washington Commanders (4-11) – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Sam Howell can quarterback my team any day of the week. This young kid has a ton of talent, and if he were a stock I would buy. That said, the second-year player (and first-year starter) has gone off the rails late in the season. Washington should sit the kid as it tries to snap its six-game losing streak and play out the stretch. Washington has gone ‘over’ in five of six games and this defense is allowing an average of 34.7 points per game over that stretch.
29. New England Patriots (4-11) – Prior to last week’s win in Denver, the Patriots had averaged 1.9 points per game in the third quarter. They exploded for 20 after halftime against the Broncos, thanks in large part to Marvin Mims’ special teams stupidity. This team actually upset Buffalo in the first meeting this season. New England is going to be facing a very different Bills team, though, and I think they could be running into a buzzsaw this week.
30. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) – Giff Smith and the Chargers’ effort and easy win against the spread last week has solidified what will be an automatic play system moving forward: bet on any NFL team the week after a head coaching change. The Chargers had a skeleton team and were facing a vastly superior opponent. But through sheer will, they played over their heads and took Buffalo to the mat.
31. Arizona Cardinals (3-12) – Jonathan Gannon knew that when Arizona, down 24-10, scored a touchdown, he needed to go for two. Going for the two-point conversion down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter should be the standard, automatic call by now. It’s an analytics-driven decision and Gannon knew to do it. That’s a positive. The negative was his decision to go for it on 4th-and-6 from their own 27 with over three minutes left (and all three timeouts). Failure there allowed the Bears to kick a field goal and essentially end the game. Gannon should’ve punted; his defense had just stopped the Bears – hardly an offensive juggernaut – on a three-and-out less than two minutes prior.
32. Carolina Panthers (2-13) – We have to just plug our nose and take the points with Carolina in these final two weeks. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The lone ATS loss in that stretch came in a game in which they outgained New Orleans by 100 yards. Also, The Panthers have only lost by more than a touchdown once in their last five games and just three times since mid-October.
Robert Ferringo has been one of the best football handicappers in the country and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert has produced five of seven winning seasons and 9 of 13 profitable years. Robert expects a MONSTER football season. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.