NFL Power Rankings Week 16
The only certainty in the NFL is constant change. Nowhere is this truism better reflected than the yearly turnover of NFL playoff teams.
Dating back over the last 30 years, an average of five teams that make the playoffs one season do not make it back the next year. Usually, about half of the playoff teams don’t return. And that number is rarely, if ever, below one-third.
With the playoff bracket currently at 14 teams, that means that between 5-7 franchises that enjoyed the postseason last year are going to be left out in the cold this season.
Last year’s playoff teams in the AFC were Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, the Chargers, Baltimore and Miami. In the NFC it was Philadelphia, San Francisco, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Dallas, the Giants and Seattle.
At this point, the Chargers and Giants are the only two 2022 playoff teams that have been eliminated.
So that means that over the regular season’s final three games, at least three teams that made the postseason last year are going to fail in their effort at a repeat appearance.
Buffalo, Cincinnati and Jacksonville are still on the chopping block in the AFC. The Jaguars and Bengals are in the field as of today, with Jacksonville in a three-way battle for the AFC South and the Bengals one of seven teams fighting for three wild card spots.
In the NFC, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Seattle are behind the eight-ball. Tampa Bay, like the Jaguars, is battling with two other teams for the division title in the NFC South. Minnesota and Seattle are both out of the running in their division but in the mix for the wild card.
The certainty of failure is important to keep in mind over these final three weeks in the NFL. The general betting public is going to be betting these games as if it is unfathomable that some of these teams don’t make the postseason. The books know that and are going to be jacking up the numbers on these desperate teams.
Some of these teams are going to get left out in the cold. Right now, my best bet would be that three of them don’t survive. Don’t be the guy that takes a December beating because you expect last year’s teams to show up.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) – Great teams don’t let bad opponents hang around. They punch them in the face, kick them in the balls and then step on their throats while they are on the ground. That’s exactly what San Francisco has been doing. They have now won six straight games since their bye week – winning four of the games on the road and beating five potential playoff teams along the way – by an average score of 34.5-15.7. That is complete and total domination. The 49ers are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on Monday Night Football and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) – Lamar Jackson is 19-3 straight up in his career against NFC teams, so I was a little surprised to see the Ravens installed as such a thick underdog this week at San Francisco. Baltimore is one of the few teams in the league that can clearly match the 49ers physically. So, if you take that out, is San Francisco’s talent or scheme really that much better than Baltimore’s?
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) – Look, it is easy to trash the Cowboys when they lay an egg like they did last week in Buffalo. I’m not going to hold that one against them, though. They were in a clear letdown spot, playing against a very desperate Bills team, and they just ran into a buzzsaw. Now, if it happens two weeks in a row…
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) – Much like the Cowboys, I’m not going to crush the Eagles for that loss at Seattle. This team must be physically and emotionally exhausted after the schedule they’ve played the last two months. They are back on MNF this week, and I would be very skeptical about backing them as a double-digit favorite here in a game they could come out very flat. The Giants suck. But what does Philly have left in the tank?
5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) – Just when people thought they couldn’t hate Kadarius Toney anymore, he screws up yet again, with his dropped pass-interception letting the Chiefs back into the game. Also, I have to say I think I kind of liked the gentlemen’s agreement that Andy Reid and Bill Belichick had at the end of that game, with Reid taking a knee and forgoing a late “meaningless” field goal and the Patriots just taking a knee and running out the clock.
6. Miami Dolphins (10-4) – The Dolphins haven’t beaten the Cowboys in 20 years. Their last win over Dallas came in November of 2003, and Miami has lost four straight meetings in the series. The Dolphins have to be licking their chops after seeing what Buffalo’s running game – which isn’t nearly as good as Miami’s – did to the Cowboys last week. The bigger question is whether the Miami defense, which hasn’t faced many legit offenses this season, can match what the Bills did.
7. Detroit Lions (10-4) – The Lions are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games and they are 8-3 ATS as a favorite. Detroit is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games and 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games against NFC opponents. They are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against NFC North opposition.
8. Buffalo Bills (8-6) – Anyone that has been reading this space over the past several years knows what I’ve been saying about the Bills: they won’t win a championship because they can’t run the ball. Well, Joe Brady (who I have always been a huge fan of) has realized that and is making it a priority. I expect more of the same this week against a Chargers team that just allowed 63 points and hasn’t been able to stop the run all season.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) – I think the Jaguars are going to miss the playoffs. Which is bizarre, considering just three weeks ago they looked poised to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I know it seems reactionary to predict their demise after that loss to the Ravens. But they have lost three straight, and injuries are taking all the bite out of their offense.
10. Cleveland Browns (9-5) – I know that Joe Flacco is playing with house money right now. However, he is way, way too loose with the ball. He made a couple brilliant tight window throws last week against Chicago. He also threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, and could’ve had at least two other balls intercepted. Flacco is playing with fire.
11. Houston Texans (8-6) – It was the right call to go with Case Keenum over Davis Mills under center last week. I still think that Mills has potential. But with Houston in a postseason battle, you absolutely have to go with the more experienced arm. Keenum can still sling it and has always delivered an accurate, catchable ball. This will be the fourth straight year that the Texans have played Cleveland and the sixth meeting since 2017. Houston has lost to the Browns each of the last three years, but Houston is actually 7-1 ATS in this series since 2008.
12. Seattle Seahawks (7-7) – Gutty win by Seattle on Monday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s go-ahead touchdown haul was definitely a “welcome to the NFL” moment. The Seahawks are in a killer letdown spot, though. They are off a MNF win at home and now must travel across the country for the dreaded 10 a.m. PST kickoff. Don’t be surprised if these guys are dead flat in the first half.
13. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – Injury issues are the only thing weighing down the Colts offense right now. I don’t expect tackle Braden Smith back this week. Indy is cautiously optimistic that it may get Jonathan Taylor back, though, along with Zack Moss and Michael Pittman. If this team gets everyone back, I think they have the juice to win the division.
14. Los Angeles Rams (7-7) – That is now four of five wins for this group (with an OT loss mixed in) and four straight ATS victories. Now that they have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both firing on all cylinders, this offense is a lot to handle. The Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in December.
15. Denver Broncos (7-7) – OK, at this point I think the level of animosity between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson is weird. They are both pros. They are both likely Hall of Famers. There should be some mutual respect there. These guys haven’t even been around each other for 12 months. So why does Payton despise him so much?
16. Green Bay Packers (6-8) – Why? Why would Matt LaFleur stick with Joe Barry? Barry has obviously lost the plot on that side of the ball. By ‘standing by his man,’ LaFleur is risking losing the locker room completely. This week is just the fourth time all season that Green Bay will be favored in a game. They are just 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three, including back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay and the Giants these past two weeks.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) – Mike Tomlin is just throwing $#i! at the wall if he thinks that starting Mason Rudolph is going to somehow spark this team. They’ve lost three games in a row, and four of five, and this team has been outscored by an average of 4.1 points per game and outgained by an average of 60 yards per game. They did outgain the Bengals by 200 yards when they met on Nov. 26, and have won two of three against their rivals.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – Tee Higgins’ acrobatic touchdown catch is easily one of the best plays of the NFL season. Considering the time, the score and the stakes, it really doesn’t get any better than that. Jamar Chase is likely done for the regular season. That means it is Tyler Boyd time. He is more than capable of being a top-tier No. 2 wideout. And he is headed for unrestricted free agency. He has three games to potentially make himself a lot of money.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-7) – Remember all offseason when people were talking about the natural regression that is bound to hit the Vikings this year in close games? Well, they have lost three of their last four games, and all three losses have come by a combined six points and all three were by a field goal or less. Minnesota is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games but they are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a home underdog.
20. New Orleans Saints (7-7) – Sunday’s win over the Giants was the most focused effort I’ve seen out of the Saints all season. That is now back-to-back wins by a combined 54-12 score, and it is as if the veterans on this team finally woke up and realized they have a legit shot at the playoffs. The bad news: those wins came against the Panthers and Giants. I’m still not buying this team.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) – Wow. Baker Mayfield’s stat line (22-for-28, 381 yards, four touchdowns) was fantastic. But if you watched that game against Green Bay, you know that the numbers don’t do justice to just how on point those throws here. Mayfield was chucking lasers. And his blossoming with the Bucs this year gives more credence to my philosophy about sitting young quarterbacks and letting them mature.
22. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) – Zero points on Sunday. Then 63 points on Thursday. Welcome to the NFL in 2023.
23. Atlanta Falcons (6-8) – There is no limit to the number of bad things I have to say about this team. Anyone that follows football is absolutely stunned that this team doesn’t have 10 wins right now. Atlanta has lost four games in the final 31 seconds, and they have five losses by five points or less. The Falcons have also played five games against the bottom nine teams in the league. They are 1-4 in those games. Arthur Smith needs to go, and he can take loser Desmond Ridder with him.
24. New York Jets (5-9) – How in the hell is this team favored this week?
25. Tennessee Titans (5-9) – This team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, so obviously the smart long-term plan would be to give Malik Willis the final three starts of the year to see what the kid has. I don’t know that Mike Vrabel will do that, though. The Titans have games against Houston and Jacksonville (after hosting Seattle this week). I think the opportunity to play spoiler is going to be too alluring and Vrabel will end up starting Ryan Tannehill in at least one of those divisional games.
26. Chicago Bears (5-9) – I still can’t believe Darnell Mooney didn’t come up with that Hail Mary. That was likely the straw that broke the back of his career in Chicago, and some team is going to get a really good receiver for a pittance in free agency next year. It is also getting to the point with this team that you can start to pinpoint games – Cleveland, at Detroit, Denver – that Chicago absolutely should’ve won and realize that this team should be in the thick of the playoff push. Much like Atlanta: I pin it on a weak quarterback and incompetent coaching.
27. Washington Commanders (4-10) – I know it is a small thing, but Ron Rivera’s decision not to go for two after Washington cut the Rams’ lead to 28-20 is just another reason why he has to go. By this point, it should be standard practice. When a team is down 14 points in the fourth quarter, and they score a touchdown, you go for two. Period. It’s analytics. It’s simple math. It’s playing to win. And yeah, I am salty because I had Washington +6.5 and wanted to sneak in the backdoor. But that doesn’t change the fact that Rivera’s time is done.
28. New York Giants (5-9) – Bad karma. That’s what hit Tommy DeVito last week. Apparently after the MNF Green Bay win, DeVito tried to double an appearance fee to show up at a New Jersey pizzeria from $10,000 to $20,000. Putting the squeeze on a small pizzeria welcomed the bad karma that rendered DeVito injured and ineffective last Sunday in New Orleans. Well, that and the fact that DeVito really isn’t that good and is basically New York football’s Jeremy Lin.
29. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) – That was as pathetic of an effort as you will ever see from an NFL team. The Chargers may salvage some pride this week and put forth more energy. Don’t be fooled, though. Just a like a girlfriend that cheats on you: once you see a team that’s willing to mail it in and quit in a game once, they will definitely do it again. The Chargers will get bombed in one of these two final games.
30. Arizona Cardinals (3-11) – Five fumbles (none lost) and two interceptions (including a pick-six), poor red zone defense and a couple of blown assignments doomed the Cardinals last week. They were completely and physically overmatched by the 49ers. But they played hard, didn’t quit, and actually owned a nine-minute time of possession advantage. I don’t see this team rolling over in Chicago this week.
31. New England Patriots (3-11) – Bill Belichick’s final days in Foxboro bring to mind one of my favorite movie quotes, from “Cocktail” of all things: “Everything ends badly, otherwise it wouldn’t end.”
32. Carolina Panthers (2-12) – I had to be one of the only handicappers in the country that was riding Carolina last week. They paid off thanks to a defense that is finally healthy doing just enough to keep them close. (Horrendous weather and an incompetent opponent).
Robert Ferringo has been one of the best football handicappers in the country and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert has produced five of seven winning seasons and 9 of 13 profitable years. Robert expects a MONSTER football season. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.