NFL Power Rankings Week 15
Instead of using this space for my normal insightful-yet-entertaining introduction, I thought I would do some house cleaning.
OK, so Doc’s clients know that all of our handicappers release their football plays at 6 p.m. EST every Thursday and that covers games through to the following Wednesday, with college football and the NFL included in one package.
Well, that’s going to remain the case throughout the next three weeks for the college football bowl season. So that means that if your handicapper has college bowl plays during the week, that will be included in the Thursday release.
The biggest issue that comes up this time of the year regards line movements. We are releasing picks on a Thursday for a game that is on a Tuesday. The lines may move. Especially if it is announced that players are sitting out of certain bowl games. That’s just kind of the way it goes. Sometimes those line movements will go in your favor. Sometimes they will go against you. But as long as you get your picks on Thursday, and get your action down, you should at least get the base value secured.
Also, now that the NFL is playing Saturday football this time of the year, it will be interesting to see how more short weeks impact performance. Over the past two years, the Thursday night games – games where teams don’t have a full seven days to prepare – have been a gold mine for ‘under’ bettors. Will that also be the case for the three Saturday games this week? We will see.
It isn’t just the holiday season – it is football season. And with games set for pretty much every day for the next three weeks, football bettors should be in heaven.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) – The 49ers look poised to lead the NFL in yards per pass attempt for a second straight season. Last year they averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, and this year that number has spiked to a ridiculous 9.8. San Francisco is third in the NFL in passing yards despite being dead last in drop backs.
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) – I hinted at it a few weeks ago: you have to fade big favorites out of a bye week. Baltimore was smoking before heading into its week off, having won six of seven. They were sluggish out of their bye and were, frankly, lucky to escape with a walk-off win thanks to a punt return touchdown from their backup return man.
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-3) – This week is Dallas’ first road game in nearly a month. And since Nov. 6, they have played away from Big D just one time, facing a pathetic Carolina team in Charlotte. The Cowboys are in a prime letdown spot after their peak effort against the Eagles last week and have yet to prove that they can be as dominating away from home as they are in it.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) – This team looks emotionally and physically exhausted. And they should be after a gauntlet that has seen them face, Dallas (twice), Kansas City, Buffalo and San Francisco. A trip to Seattle to face a revved-up Seahawks team on Monday Night Football is probably the last thing that these guys want to deal with right now.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) – There is nothing I can say about the Kadarius Toney-Travis Kelce offsides play that hasn’t already been said by bobblehead media members all over the country in the past 48 hours. That play was definitely not scripted and was just a brilliant improvisation from Kelce. Do not be surprised if you see imitators across the league try to pull something like that off sometime between now and the Super Bowl. It’s a copycat league, and someone is going to try to mimic that.
6. Miami Dolphins (9-4) – Mike McDaniel has been extremely cautious with injured players all season long. Monday, it came back to bite the Dolphins in a big way. They decided to rest starting left tackle Terron Armstead, starting guard Robert Hunt and starting safety Jevon Holland against the Titans. The result was five sacks allowed and a defense that surrendered 15 points in the last four minutes of the game for an epic collapse by the Fins.
7. Detroit Lions (9-4) – Over the last five weeks, the Lions have allowed an average of 30 points per game. And they’ve been getting strafed despite four of those games coming against teams ranked No. 19 or worse in total offense. They haven’t exactly been facing juggernauts. Now they will line up against a Broncos offense that is just No. 24 in total yards but has mustered 23.2 points per game over its last six outings.
8. Buffalo Bills (7-6) – The line movement on the Cowboys-Bills game is a giant red flag on this matchup. This line opened with Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite and overnight Monday spiked to 2.5 despite the majority of public action on Dallas. Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four home games. If there is any magic in Orchard Park, the Bills sure could use it this week.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) – Rattled. This entire team looks rattled right now after back-to-back losses. I can’t believe that Trevor Lawrence played on Sunday after his ugly ankle injury last Monday night. He was not sharp at all. Jacksonville actually upset Baltimore at home last year in a similar spot as a 3.5-point home underdog. Lawrence threw a 10-yard touchdown to Marvin Jones with just 14 seconds remaining in a game that saw the teams explode for 33 points in the fourth quarter after mustering just 22 in the first three.
10. Cleveland Browns (8-5) – The Browns lost two starting offensive tackles in the last 48 hours. Right tackle Dawand Jones hurt himself in practice last week, and it is confirmed that he is out for the year with a torn MCL. Cleveland was hoping to get left tackle Jedrick Wills back from IR, but he had surgery on Tuesday and is also done for the season. Throw in a wrist injury to running back Jerome Ford, and Joe Flacco is losing a lot of new friends on offense.
11. Denver Broncos (7-6) – During the past seven games, the Broncos defense has allowed 111 points, averaging 15.9 PPG. In the first six games the defense allowed 198 points, an average of 33.0 PPG. So, this team has cut their points allowed in half inside the same season. Not surprisingly, the Broncos went 0-5-1 ATS in their first six games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven since the turnaround.
12. Houston Texans (7-6) – It was only a matter of time before C.J. Stroud got his clock cleaned. Anyone that has watched this guy play this year knows that a big part of his magic has happened with him holding onto the ball, scrambling all over the place, buying time, and then unleashing a laser down the field. C.J. Stroud is in the concussion protocol, and I’ll be surprised if Houston risks its franchise quarterback by putting him out there this week.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) – After back-to-back outright losses as a favorite, the Steelers are back in their preferred role of underdog. Pittsburgh has not lost to the Colts since November of 2008, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. That includes a 24-17 win in Indianapolis last November.
14. Seattle Seahawks (6-7) – Drew Lock will get the nod again this week on MNF in a must-win game for the Seahawks. Seattle has won seven straight games against the Eagles and haven’t lost to Philadelphia since November of 2008. Seattle is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams, although they haven’t faced off since 2020.
15. Indianapolis Colts (7-6) – I don’t know what Gardner Minshew’s daily prop lines are going to be for whether he throws an interception this week against the Steelers. But no matter how high the juice is, you should absolutely bet on him tossing one to the Black and Gold. The Colts are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
16. Green Bay Packers (6-7) – Jordan Love was not sharp in the first half of that game on Monday, and that kind of set the tone for a crippling loss. Love’s decision making and his accuracy were both erratic in the first 30 minutes. And by the time he got going in the second half, it was too late; Green Bay had let the Giants hang around and believe they could win. We will see if that loss lingers with this young team and carries over into this week’s game against a veteran Bucs squad.
17. Los Angeles Rams (6-7) – Amazing call this week by J.B. Long, the play-by-play guy for the Rams when he said, “Matt Stafford is playing quarterback like an ellipsis – dot, dot, dot.” The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss but just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) – Jake Browning's 79.3 completion percentage is the best mark by any quarterback in NFL history through his first three career starts. And if you’ve watched Browning the last two games, there is nothing fluky about what he’s doing. He is putting the ball on the money, and the Bengals have done a good job simplifying the offense, with Browning only averaging 4.4 yards per target.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-6) – Of course, Justin Jefferson got hurt as soon as he came back! Jefferson is putting on an absolute clinic of what not to do in a contract year. The Vikings’ blitz-crazy defense has been carrying the team, holding seven of eight opponents to 21 points or less, and Minnesota is just 3-10 this year against the total.
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) – As soon as the Falcons scored the go-ahead touchdown with 3:23 to play – set up by an absolutely ridiculous catch by Drake London – I instantly knew that the Falcons were going to lose in a similar fashion to what happened in the Minnesota game. I don’t know what it is about this defense, but they have struggled to close games all year. Atlanta has played eight games that have been decided by five points or less.
21. New Orleans Saints (6-7) – There is no way that the Saints should be six-point favorites over the Giants this week. New Orleans has the fact that the G-Men are on a short week going for them. That’s it. The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and 2-8 ATS this season as a favorite. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS at home this year and no longer have one of the best home field advantages in the league.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) – Kudos to the Tampa Bay offense brain trust for their game plan against Atlanta. The Bucs realized that Atlanta was decimated along the offensive line, and Tampa pounded the ball on the ground. Even their final drive, which lasted 12 plays and began with just over three minutes to play, featured five running plays for 26 yards, including a crucial 4th-and-1 conversion.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) – Last week’s shutout loss wasn’t a one-off. The Raiders have scored 46 points in their past four games, and they have only topped the 17-point mark twice in their last 10 games. Despite that, expectations for the Raiders have been so low they are still a solid 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Raiders are also 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Chargers, with the home team winning five straight in this series.
24. New York Jets (5-8) – My honest to God feeling about the Jets is, “Who cares?” There has been so much ink spilled about this team over the last eight months, and they are such losers, who cares what happens to this group? The Jets are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Dolphins. This has been a big underdog series, though, and Miami may be without Tyreke Hill and a slew of other key players this Sunday.
25. Tennessee Titans (5-8) – For all the flaws this team has, Tennessee’s red zone defense has been outstanding this year. The Titans are allowing touchdowns on an NFL-best 37 percent of opponents’ red zone trips. Miami got inside the Tennessee 25-yard-line four times on Monday but only converted that into six total points.
26. Chicago Bears (5-8) – I mentioned Montez Sweat’s impressive, immediate impact on Chicago’s defense weeks ago. Now the numbers back it up. Since joining the Bears in Week 9, Chicago’s defense ranks No. 5 in total defense (272.2 YPG), No. 5 in pass defense (180.6 YPG), No. 9 in scoring defense (18.2 PPG) and No. 2 in total takeaways (11). They also have 10 sacks in the last four games after managing just 11 in the first nine games.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) – Los Angeles allowed 24 points to a mediocre Denver offense – and the Broncos had two more touchdowns that were taken off the board due to questionable calls. The Chargers offense is at 34.9 yards per point in their last three games – which is five yards per point worse than the historically bad Patriots offense. So much for Kellen Moore super-charging this offense.
28. Washington Commanders (4-9) – Washington has gone ‘over’ in four straight games, so the books have jacked up their total this week to 49.0. The Commanders have allowed 45 points in back-to-back games, have allowed 150 in their last four, and have been hit for 31 or more points in six of their last 10.
29. New York Giants (5-8) – I couldn’t stand Tommy DeVito when he was at Syracuse. The guy was a dud. However, if you can’t enjoy the DeVito story and what he is doing right now in New York – salvaging what had been a bleak season for the G-Men – then you just don’t have a heart. DeVito is the first undrafted rookie quarterback to win three straight starts without an INT, the first with a passer rating of 100+ in three straight starts, and just the third to win three straight with zero INTs and a rating of 100+.
30. Arizona Cardinals (3-10) – The Cardinals have lost three straight to the 49ers by an average of 24 points per game. Arizona was on a nice 5-2 ATS run prior to last week’s bye, and this is the same group that upset the Cowboys at home and only lost to the Ravens by seven. I think they could hang around with the 49ers if San Francisco takes this group lightly.
31. New England Patriots (3-10) – Let’s not get carried away with one win from the Patriots. They still managed only 303 total yards in their win over the Steelers, and they have averaged just 11.7 points per game over their last 10 games and 11.3 per game over their last six. This is Bill Belichick’s first game against Patrick Mahomes since October 2020 and the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS against the Patriots since 2017.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-12) – Carolina lost by 22 points last week despite outgaining the Saints by 100 yards and owning nearly a 10-minute time of possession advantage. Two lost fumbles (one returned for a touchdown) and a 13-for-36 effort from Bryce Young doomed this group. Carolina lost to Atlanta in Week 1 despite holding the Falcons to just 221 total yards, and I think they will be able to shut the Falcons’ erratic O down again.
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