NFL Power Rankings Week 14
And here comes the weather.
NFL offenses have done a great job of tripping over their own d!#ks all season long. The current average of 43.4 points per game would make this year the lowest scoring season of the last 14 years, and it has been absolutely brutal to watch.
The league-wide scoring drought, as we’ve documented here, has led to a record-setting run of ‘under’ wagers hitting. Even after a midseason market correction, the ‘under’ is hitting around 59 percent this year in non-overtime games.
Not that offenses needed another obstacle to overcome, but now the weather is starting to set in. Throughout the offseason, the preseason and the autumn haze of August and September, football is portrayed and analyzed as a fast-paced, aerial-based, all-out offensive attack. It seems like every year people forget that winter is coming. And with it brings the cold, cruel reality that football is won in the mud.
Heading into Week 14, 10 of the 15 games on the board this weekend features a total at 40.5 or lower.
Two games – Pittsburgh-New England on Thursday night and Jacksonville-Cleveland on Sunday – are tied for the lowest totals on the board at 30.5.
That 30.5-point total isn’t just the lowest posted NFL total this year, or this decade, or this century. That is the lowest posted NFL total since 1993, when three games were posted at either 28.0 or 29.0.
Making matters worse, there is rain and wind in the forecast all over the Midwest and northeast. Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, New York and Baltimore are all facing the prospect of temperatures between 35-55 degrees, rain, and wind blowing at 20 miles per hour or more.
Football weather.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (9-3) – This ranking may be short lived. But how can you argue with the 49ers as the best team in the NFL? For it few minutes in the first quarter, it looked like San Francisco could get run out of Philly, with the Eagles dominating time of possession and starting the game with back-to-back scoring drives. Then the talent kicked in, and the 49ers made another statement with a 35-7 run.
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) – The Ravens are 18-1 straight up against NFC opponents when Lamar Jackson starts at quarterback. Baltimore does have the advantage of getting a West Coast dome team into bad weather and an early start time. However, the Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a bye week, and I have serious reservations about how sharp this team is going to be after a week off this late in the season.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) – I said in this space last week that it was clear that the Eagles were leaking oil. That is now five straight games in which they’ve been outgained and five straight games where they trailed at halftime. The home team in the Cowboys series is 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) – Despite a quality opponent, it is still odd to see the Chiefs installed as a home favorite of less than three points. Kansas City has turned around an ATS swoon that lasted the better part of the last two regular seasons, going 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games. Patrick Mahomes has feasted in this scenario, going 7-2 ATS in his last nine starts as a favorite of less than three points.
5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3) – Mike McCarthy’s stupidity was on full display yet again in Dallas’ win over Seattle last Thursday. From odd decisions to decline penalties, to mismanaged timeouts, to bizarre clock management, McCarthy’s incompetence is the biggest impediment to the Cowboys winning the NFC. Dallas has won 14 straight home games, going 5-1 ATS this season in Big D, and they want revenge for a loss to the Eagles where Dallas ended the game on the Philly 5-yard line.
6. Miami Dolphins (9-3) – Miami is currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And with four of their last five games at home, they have to be considered the favorites to earn home field advantage. It is also worth noting that Miami is 2-0 ATS with average wins by 25.5 points since the in-season version of Hard Knocks came out. I have always felt that the Hard Knocks teams tried a little harder in the preseason. We could be seeing the same phenomenon here.
7. Detroit Lions (9-3) – The Lions are going to have dial up the run game this week in Chicago. The total on this game dropped from 45.5 to 40.5 mainly due to a weather forecast that calls for high winds and a snow/rain mix. Detroit has played five straight games in domes, so it will be interesting to see how they handle the elements.
8. Buffalo Bills (6-6) – The Bills shouldn’t be rattled by yet another trip to Arrowhead. This is the fourth straight season they will head to Kansas City, and this will be their fifth game in Arrowhead since 2021. Buffalo has won the last two regular season meetings with the Chiefs, winning 38-20 in 2021 and 24-20 last year. Buffalo has the fifth-best scoring differential (+101) in the NFL and is clearly better than its record.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) – Trevor Lawrence may miss several weeks with a high ankle sprain. They are now off a disappointing primetime loss, playing on a short week, and rolling with C.J. Beathard at quarterback in a game that will be played in some nasty weather. I have been saying that the Jaguars are not a championship-caliber team all season. The fact that they let the Bengals hang around on MNF was the perfect encapsulation of that.
10. Houston Texans (7-5) – For all the talk about C.J. Stroud, the Texans defense carried them in their win over the Broncos. Houston had three sacks, three interceptions, and they shut out the Broncos on third downs (0-for-11). Will Anderson was a beast, notching two of the sacks and tipping a pass that was intercepted. Houston’s secondary is one of the deepest and best in the AFC. If the front seven holds up against the run down the stretch, this defense should continue to improve.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) – Sunday’s game, delayed twice by severe weather, was really decided during a few minutes in the second quarter. First, Kenny Pickett got injured and forced out of the game. The next play, the Steelers got stuffed on a weak 4th-and-1 run at the goal line. That was followed by a 99-yard touchdown drive by the Cardinals. And that was the ballgame. Pittsburgh never recovered, and clearly this team A) can’t be trusted as a favorite and B) shouldn’t be overlooked as an underdog.
12. Seattle Seahawks (6-6) – The Seahawks have not been competitive in the San Francisco series the past two years, losing four straight by 18, 18, 8 and 20 points, respectively. Seattle is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight divisional games and they are 2-6 ATS against teams that are above .500. Seattle is just 3-8 ATS after a loss, and you have to wonder if there’s some lingering disappointment after that loss in Dallas.
13. Indianapolis Colts (7-5) – That is now four straight wins, and the Colts are 5-1 in their last six road games. You really just have to take the good with the bad with Gardner Minshew. He had an awful strip sack that cost the Colts points, and his interception on a two-point conversion (which was returned 99 yards for two points for the Titans) are maddening. But Minshew rebounded (again) and led the Colts to a tough win and cover.
14. Denver Broncos (6-6) – There’s a chance the Broncos offense could have a bit of a breakout down the stretch. Relative to strength of opposing defenses, Denver faces the easiest schedule in the NFL the rest of the season. Through the first 12 games, the Broncos have faced the fourth-toughest schedule based on strength of defense.
15. Green Bay Packers (6-6) – That is now three straight wins and four of five for the Packers. Now Green Bay must shift gears. They have been underdogs in 10 of their last 11 games. They were nearly a touchdown home dog last week and are now laying nearly a touchdown as a road favorite in New York next Monday night. That may not seem like a big deal, but I’ve always been wary of teams that see swings on the spread (underdog to favorite or vice versa) of 10 or more points from week to week.
16. Cleveland Browns (7-5) – Joe Flacco looked perfectly average for the Browns last week. So, let’s not act like he is somehow going to save this team’s season. Flacco barely completed 50 percent of his passes (23-for-44) and threw an interception against a Rams team that is No. 16 in total defense and No. 15 against the pass. Cleveland doesn’t face any dominating defenses the rest of the way. However, anyone expecting big things from the way-past-his-prime Flacco is kidding themselves.
17. Minnesota Vikings (6-6) – Justin Jefferson sure took his sweet time coming back from injury. He better be ready to make a major impact for the Vikings this week on the road in Las Vegas. The Vikings have covered the spread in six straight road games, and they are 4-1 ATS against teams below .500. Minnesota is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after a bye week.
18. Atlanta Falcons (6-6) – The Falcons continue to be an enigma. They are No. 6 in the NFL in rushing and average at No. 17 in total offense. However, they are a woeful No. 27 in yards per point this season. The home team in the Tampa Bay series is just 4-7 SU in the last 11 meetings.
19. Los Angeles Rams (6-6) – I thought for sure that when Puka Nacua walked to the locker room that he was done for the season. Not for the game – for the season. He has an AC sprain but is expected to play against the hard-hitting Ravens on Sunday. The Rams desperately need him, because right now Cooper Kupp isn’t nearly the guy he has been in recent seasons.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) – So which Bengals offense (and which Jake Browning) is going to show up this week? Is it going to be the vomit-inducing group that mustered just 223 total yards and 10 points against the Steelers or the one that rung up nearly 500 total yards and 34 points in Jacksonville? Also, I think it is time to retire the WR option passes after two of them led to -7 yards and an interception Monday.
21. Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) – The vaunted Chargers offense has been held to just 520 total yards and 16 points the last two weeks. The running game, behind that pathetic offensive line, has been dreadful. If you discount Justin Herbert’s scrambling, the Chargers have turned 51 designed runs in a comical 150 rushing yards the past three weeks. The home team is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Denver.
22. New Orleans Saints (5-7) – Why is Michael Thomas still on this team? That guy has been nothing but a headache and off-field distraction for the Saints for YEARS. His contract must go down in NFL history as one of the worst ever. He spent last weekend on the couch (he is on IR) trash-tweeting quarterback Derek Carr in New Orleans’ loss to the Lions. Things cannot be good in that locker room at all right now.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) – The Bucs were forced to play without all three starting linebackers last week, including leaders Lavonte David and Devin White. The result was Carolina – with its fifth different starting right guard and sixth different left guard of the season – running for 133 yards on 34 carries and scoring touchdowns on two of three red zone trips.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) – The Raiders got a short-term emotional bump after firing Josh McDaniels. Vegas parlayed that energy and emotion into wins over the Giants and Jets. You have to wonder if the novelty of new head coach Antonio Pierce has worn off, though, after two straight losses and then a bye week. This team isn’t going to the playoffs. They aren’t making a late season charge. They just spent two weeks partying around Vegas and they are probably already looking ahead to the offseason. I’ll be very curious to see what the motivation level of this team is on Sunday.
25. Washington Commanders (4-9) – So maybe it wasn’t Jack Del Rio’s fault the defense sucks? Washington has now lost four straight games by an average score of 38-18.
26. New York Jets (5-8) – Since the start of November, the AFC East has gone a combined 1-12 against the rest of the NFL. I thought the East would be the second-best division in football (behind the AFC North). Then the Jets season ended on its opening drive, New England imploded, and the Bills fell apart, resulting a slimy 21-27 mark for the East this year against nondivisional opponents.
27. Tennessee Titans (4-8) – It is sad when an injured punter not only results in the firing of your special teams coach but also takes away one of the best players on your roster. Ryan Stonehouse tied his own NFL regular season average for yards per punt this year at 53.1 YPP. Stonehouse suffered a season-ending knee injury on the second of back-to-back blocked punts by the Colts on Sunday. Those errors led to the Titans canning special teams coach Craig Aukerman and cost Tennessee one of its most valuable players.
28. Chicago Bears (4-8) – The Bears and Lions combined for a completely unsustainable 11.8 yards per point in their 31-26 barn burner on Nov. 19. Turnovers and the teams combining to go 4-for-4 on goal-to-go played a big factor. The Lions and Bears have averaged 56 points per game in their last three meetings.
29. New York Giants (4-8) – The Giants actually went to Green Bay last October, overcame a 20-10 halftime deficit, and pulled off a shocking 27-22 upset as an 8.5-point underdog against the Packers. New York has also won back-to-back games outright as an underdog, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when catching points.
30. Arizona Cardinals (2-10) – Arizona’s 99-yard touchdown drive against the Steelers was their second 99-yard TD drive against a Top 10 defense this season. In fact, these are the first two 99-yard touchdown drives for Arizona since 2016.
31. New England Patriots (2-10) – This team is not going to win another game. They have scored 13 combined points in their last three games, and they have scored seven or fewer points in five of their last nine games. The Patriots are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Steelers, dating back to 2013. That includes a 17-14 win in Pittsburgh last season.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-11) – The Panthers covered the spread despite just 282 yards of total offense, 75 of which came on a drive that A) led to their backdoor ATS win and B) pushed the game total ‘over’. The Panthers got back three key defensive starters last week, although those players still aren’t 100 percent. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Saints.
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