NFL Power Rankings Week 12
It’s Thanksgiving Week, which is the busiest gambling week of the season. As such, I’m going to keep this short and sweet.
Also, this week we will be releasing our football picks at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 22 to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday.
Happy Thanksgiving to each of you and your loved ones and good luck this week!
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) – The Eagles aren’t going 16-1. They aren’t. So the question becomes what games are they going to lose on the remaining schedule? Their last three games are against the Giants (twice) and Cardinals. That leaves the next four weeks: vs. Buffalo, vs. San Francisco, at Dallas and at Seattle. I’m willing to wager that the Eagles lose two of those four games and fail against the spread in three of four.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) – Catch. The. Ball. Discounting Week 17 games, the Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after a loss.
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3) – Todd Monken’s biggest impact on this team has been in its red zone efficiency. The Ravens were No. 30 in the league last year, converting just 44.4% of their trips into touchdowns. This year Baltimore is No. 4 in the NFL at 65.2%.
4. San Francisco 49ers (7-3) – That is two straight double-digit wins for the 49ers, who are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The 49ers have won three straight against the Seahawks, including last year’s 41-23 playoff thrashing, and are 4-2 ATS in this series since January of 2021.
5. Detroit Lions (8-2) – Winning games that you should’ve lost is a skill that good teams learn. The Lions have been on the other end of numerous games like that victory over Chicago, with Detroit overcoming a 12-point deficit in the final three minutes.
6. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) – Dallas beat the Chargers by just three points on Oct. 16. Their other six wins have come by an average of 28.3 points per game. Their last three wins have all come by at least 23 points. And over the last two weeks, they have outscored the Giants and Panthers by a combined 82-27. They are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Washington.
7. Miami Dolphins (7-3) – Miami has absolutely owned the Jets. They are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against New York. Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone ‘under’. The Dolphins are averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, nearly a full yard better than the No. 2 team. Let’s see if they are going to continue to move the ball effectively on the ground as the weather starts to change.
8. Cleveland Browns (7-3) – At a certain point, the bubble is going to burst for this group, who have now won three straight games overall and two straight games that they had no business winning. Teams off of back-to-back divisional games are always poor bets, especially when they are coming off two straight rivalry wins.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) – Revenge game this week for the Jaguars, who lost 37-17 to Houston back in Week 3. The favorite is just 3-7 ATS in this series.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-5) – I love Joe Brady as the Bills offensive coordinator. This guy is the real deal. And after this week’s game against Philadelphia (who is on a short week), the Bills will have a bye. That should give Brady a little time to implement some of his core concepts for this offense and that’s going to make this a tough team for opponents to prepare for down the stretch.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) – Pete Carroll announced that Geno Smith will start on Thanksgiving against the 49ers. Smith has a bruised triceps, although there is no way that is the reason for his shaky play over the last month.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) – In the 45 games that Matt Canada was the offensive coordinator, Pittsburgh never gained over 400 total yards, and the Steelers were outgained 31 times. Mercifully, Canada caught the axe on Tuesday.
13. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) – Wouldn’t it have made more sense for Josh Dobbs to pitch the ball to T.J. Hockenson on that bizarre 3rd-and-1 play in the first quarter of Sunday’s game? Also, how was Kareem Jackson not flagged for unnecessary roughness on that play – which led to a Dobbs fumble – for leading with his helmet?
14. Houston Texans (6-4) – Houston has dominated the Jaguars. The Texans are 9-1 SU And 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against their AFC South rivals. A win here would put Houston in first place in the division, somewhere absolutely no one saw this team being at any point this year.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) – Let’s not pretend that the Bengals are going to be anything without Joe Burrow. He is that team. He is the wellspring of their confidence. This team is going to go into the tank. And once one loss becomes two becomes three, and when this team embraces that it isn’t going to playoffs, I think they are going to completely mail it in.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) – Anyone that has read this space over the past few years knows that I have never bought into the Chargers. This team is not good, and Brandon Staley is a joke. His got heated at a press conference earlier this week. That’s just him embracing the fact that he is about to get fired.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) – That is now four straight ATS wins for the Bucs, whose defense has completely melted down. They have covered five straight games on the road, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
18. New Orleans Saints (5-5) – The Saints-Falcons rivalry is one of the nastiest in the NFL that no one talks about. However, it has been completely lopsided over the last several years, with New Orleans Saints winning three straight, six of seven and eight of the last 10 meetings.
19. Indianapolis Colts (5-5) – We will see if the bye week blunted the little bit of momentum that the Colts had. Indianapolis had won back-to-back games heading into their week off. I would think that this offense, which is No. 9 in the league in scoring, would be able to tear up a Bucs defense that has allowed an average of 24 points per game over the last month.
20. Denver Broncos (5-5) – Can this team maintain this emotional level after back-to-back last-second wins? Denver has now won four straight games and, somehow, have gotten themselves back in the AFC playoff picture. The biggest difference has been the improvement of their defense (which will be without Kareem Jackson for four more games because of suspension). Denver has held five straight opponents below 22 points (going ‘under’ in all five games).
21. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) – Here is Atlanta’s last three losses: they lost to rookie Will Levis in his first career start (Tennessee’s only win in the last two months), they lost to Josh Dobbs who was picked up just days before his appearance for the Vikings, and they lost to Kyler Murray in Murray’s first start in nearly 12 months.
22. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) – Six of Las Vegas’ last nine losses to the Chiefs have come by 18 or more points. The Raiders have now covered the spread in all three of Antonio Pierce’s games, but the rookie head coach may get exposed this week going up against an angry Chiefs team and mastermind Andy Reid.
23. Washington Commanders (4-7) – Sam Howell may die this week. He’s taken 51 sacks already this season, and I’ll be stunned if he is taken down fewer than 10 times by the ferocious Cowboys pass rush.
24. New York Jets (5-5) – Mercifully, Zach Wilson’s tenure as Jets starting quarterback is over. I’m going to miss watching that goofy bastard flail around out there each Sunday.
25. Los Angeles Rams (4-6) – There is still a chance that Cooper Kupp could suit up this week for the Rams in Arizona. The bigger issue for Los Angeles is going to be their No. 22 ranked rushing defense against Arizona’s run-heavy attack. Los Angeles has won eight of the last 10 meetings with the Cardinals both SU and ATS.
26. Green Bay Packers (4-6) – Jayden Reed has really become The Big Play Guy for this Packers passing offense. Last week was the third time in four weeks that he beat his player prop for receiving yards, and he is definitely looking like a keeper. Only three of Green Bay’s last nine games have been decided by more than one score.
27. Tennessee Titans (3-7) – There is no way that I trust this team laying points to anyone right now. The Titans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and are No. 30 in the NFL in offensive yards per point since switching to Will Levis at quarterback.
28. Chicago Bears (3-8) – That was the second game this year in which the Bears blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Matt Eberflus’ soft Cover-2 defense is ridiculous and needs to go. The Bears have alternated wins and losses ATS the last seven weeks, and their five-game losing streak against the Vikings is their longest in the series since a six-game losing streak to Minnesota from 1992-1994.
29. New York Giants (3-8) – Dating back to their Week 17 meeting in 2007, where the Patriots were attempting to finish the regular season undefeated, the Giants have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games against New England.
30. New England Patriots (2-8) – Who cares who the New England quarterback is going to be? Does it matter? This team is going to suck no matter who is under center. I cannot believe this team is favored this week.
31. Arizona Cardinals (2-9) – Interesting line movement in the Arizona game. The Cardinals opened at +1.5 but were quickly bet to -1.5. If they close as the favorite, it will be just the first time in 18 games Arizona has been laying points and just the third time over the last two seasons.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-9) – Carolina is on a 2-8 ATS slide, and the Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams from the AFC.
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