NFL Power Rankings Week 11
Rather than give you my normally snappy introduction to my power rankings (I mean, you clicked the link; you know what you came here for) I’m going to use this time and space for a Doc’s Sports public service announcement.
Next week is the week of Thanksgiving. Our handicappers always release our full football cards (college football and NFL combined) at 6 p.m. EST on Thursdays. However, to accommodate the holiday, we will be releasing our picks at 6 p.m. EST on Wednesday. That way you will have time to get your action in on Wednesday and can kick back and relax during one of the best weekends of football all year.
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s see if Week 11 can match Week 10 for sheer drama. For the first time in NFL history, six games were decided on walk-off field goals on the last play of the game. That is an eyebrow-raising level of parity and resulted in underdogs having one of their best ATS weeks of the season.
Also, as we have tracked in this space this season, the ‘under’ has been absolutely crushing it at the window with 60 percent of all NFL games staying below the total. However, last week the ‘over’ went 9-5. Have the sportsbooks finally overadjusted totals to slow down the rash of ‘unders’ or was last week a fluke?
Those are just a couple of storylines that we’ll be tracking as the season hits the stretch run.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) – Revenge games don’t get much bigger than this. This Monday’s game at Arrowhead will be just the ninth time in NFL history that a Super Bowl rematch has taken place the following season. It has happened three times this century (Falcons-Patriots, Panthers-Broncos and Broncos-Seahawks), and the Super Bowl loser has lost the rematch (1-2 ATS) all three times.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) – The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on Monday Night Football. Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams that are above .500, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of three points or less.
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3) – The Ravens have been good on short weeks, going 6-2 ATS in their last Thursday night games. Defense usually dominates these Thursday games, and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five (6-4 on the year).
4. San Francisco 49ers (6-3) – The 49ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games and have absolutely dominated their opponents in three wins at Levi’s Stadium this year, beating the Cowboys, Cardinals and Giants by an average of 23 points apiece. These two teams met here last season, and San Francisco ran out to a 28-0 lead while cruising to a 35-7 win.
5. Miami Dolphins (6-3) – This may be one of those situations where a team is overvalued coming out of a bye week. We saw it last Sunday: Jacksonville lost all its momentum thanks to a week off. My point is that the whole, “they had extra time to prepare” narrative that often follows teams out of a bye week is a myth. (That said, Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after a bye week!)
6. Detroit Lions (7-2) – That was a hell of a call by Dan Campbell to go for it on 4th-and-2 with under two minutes left rather than take the chip shot field goal. It was also the right call. Justin Herbert was on fire. There was a 100 percent chance that if Detroit gave the ball back to the Chargers then L.A. was going to at least get a field goal and send it to OT. Campbell had a chance to end the game by picking up two yards and went for it. Even if the Lions hadn’t executed and lost the game it still would’ve been the right call.
7. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) – Let’s see if the Cowboys continue their home/road Jekyll/Hyde performance this week. Dallas did hammer the feeble Giants 40-0 on the road in the season opener and should be more than capable of doing the same to Carolina this week. However, Dallas is 1-3 ATS away from home since that trip to New York and 4-9 ATS on the road since the middle of last season.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) – The Bengals have beaten the Ravens in four of the last six meetings, and the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog and are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games overall. Despite last week’s flop, the Bengals are still on a 17-6 overall ATS run.
9. Cleveland Browns (6-3) – This is what’s frustrating about Deshaun Watson. Is he going to maintain the level he played in for the final three quarters against the Ravens or was that a fluke? Watson was perfect in the second half and played his best game in about five years. That was a far cry from the erratic mess he was in Indianapolis. Cleveland is 5-1 in the games he has started – despite Watson’s pedestrian 44.7 QBR – and he is questionable to play this week against the Steelers because of an ankle injury. It is just always something with this guy.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) – The Jaguars have now allowed 20 or more points in four of their last five games and they looked lost on that side of the ball last week against the 49ers. I have been saying for a while that bye weeks in the NFL can be tricky. They don’t always help teams. Jacksonville, which had so much momentum with a five-game winning streak, looked lethargic and disorganized after their week off. The Jaguars haven’t beaten the Titans three straight times since the 2005-2006 seasons and have pulled off only three straight wins in this series twice in franchise history.
11. Buffalo Bills (5-5) – Ken Dorsey was the scapegoat this week, fired on Tuesday after Buffalo’s disastrous Monday Night Football loss. I am actually a huge fan of Joe Brady and I think he will be brilliant as an OC. I don’t know if it is going to matter for this squad, though, as Buffalo has the third-toughest remaining schedule and right now there are just too many turnovers and mistakes to overcome. The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Jets but do have revenge for an OT loss in New York in Week 1.
12. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) – NPC. The Seahawks look like a non-player character in the NFC race. Sure, they may be good enough to get back to the playoffs. They will do absolutely nothing when they get there, though. This team had multiple chances to stop the Commanders in the fourth quarter and simply couldn’t or wouldn’t do it. Good teams drop the hammer in games like that and put games away.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) – The Steelers have been leaning on the running game, and it has been working. They’ve cranked out 371 rushing yards the last two weeks, and Kenny Pickett hasn’t turned the ball over in four games. Pittsburgh won the first meeting with Cleveland thanks to two defensive touchdowns and a 71-yard George Pickens catch-and-run. The Steelers were outgained by nearly 150 yards in that game. Since the turn of the century, the Steelers are 39-10-1 SU in their last 50 games against Cleveland.
14. Minnesota Vikings (6-4) – That is now five straight wins both SU and ATS for the Vikings, the longest streak in the NFL. Minnesota has gone 4-0 without Justin Jefferson this year and just 2-4 with him this season.
15. Houston Texans (5-4) – Can the Texans handle success? It has been a meteoric rise for C.J. Stroud and this squad. (And I think that Bobby Slowik has to be on the short list for Assistant Coach of the Year.) Now, how does this team handle the shift from being overlooked underdog to unwitting favorite? This week marks only the fifth time in three years that Houston is favored. They are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year – including a loss to the Panthers – and they are just 2-8 ATS when laying points dating back to the 2019 season.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) – The Chargers are now dead last in the NFL in pass defense and No. 31 in total defense. They have a losing record despite outscoring their opponents by nearly three points per game this season. I really do feel like Brandon Staley will get the in-season axe if the Chargers don’t leave Lambeau with a win this Sunday.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) – Tampa Bay has been kind of feisty on the road this year. They have wins over the Vikings and Saints and close losses at Buffalo and at Houston. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS away from home this season and they are on a 3-0 ATS winning streak overall. I’m a little surprised to see them as such hefty underdogs in San Francisco this week.
18. New Orleans Saints (5-5) – If Dennis Allen still has a head coaching job next season, there truly is no god.
19. Washington Commanders (4-6) – Sam Howell has quickly become a backdoor magician. He has covered the spread in three games that Washington has lost this year. Washington is on a solid 5-2 ATS run, but they are 0-3 ATS this year when favored, losing two of those games outright.
20. Indianapolis Colts (5-5) – Last week was the first time all season that Indianapolis was held below 20 points and it was the first time that the Indianapolis defense held an opponent below 13 points. After back-to-back low-scoring games, I have a feeling the Colts are due for a shootout when they come back from their bye week.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) – Can the dreaded 10 a.m. PST kickoff finally blunt some of Vegas’ newfound momentum? I’m not so sure. Las Vegas is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four road games. They are playing a more old-school style under head coach Antonio Pierce, though, and that type of blue collar, run-the-ball-and-play-defense approach usually travels pretty well in the NFL.
22. New York Jets (4-5) – I have no idea why Robert Saleh has this weird loyalty to Zach Wilson. The only thing I can think of is that it has something to do with weirdo owner Woody Johnson wanting Wilson to play. New York’s season went sideways when Aaron Rodgers went down. Benching Wilson – whether it is for Tim Boyle or Trevor Simien – would show some self-awareness from Saleh. It would also show his locker room and his fan base that he is desperately trying anything to salvage this season rather than just stubbornly going down with the ship.
23. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) – Last week was the third straight game that the Falcons lost to a quarterback making his first start of the season with that team. Also, that was an unbelievable no-call on the offensive pass interference that set up the game-winning field goal. Regardless, Atlanta has such bad karma and negative momentum that everything is working against them. The bye week will be a good reset, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for a late-season revival from this group. There’s simply too much bad chemistry to overcome.
24. Denver Broncos (4-5) – Credit where credit is due: Sean Payton has done a very good job of stabilizing a group that was completely off the rails. This team still isn’t very good. And the defense cannot stop the run at all. But wins over the Chiefs and Bills in the last month is nothing to sneeze at. Now we will see how they handle some success, playing on primetime (Sunday Night Football) again this week after their big Monday Night Football upset. The Broncos are 7-19 ATS as a home favorite and they are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games as a favorite of three points or less.
25. Tennessee Titans (3-6) – Let’s call it like it is: Will Levis’ four-touchdown breakout in his first start was a fluke. We see stuff like that happen all the time in sports. (And right now the Falcons are magnets for that type of thing.) Reality is catching up with Levis and the Titans, though. He’s not a savior. He’s a rookie quarterback on a team with a shocking lack of offensive talent. In his past two games, he is 41-for-78 (52.6 percent) with zero touchdowns, two interceptions and eight sacks. It is worth blindly fading Levis until he shows baseline competence.
26. Los Angeles Rams (3-6) – The Rams have dominated their series with Seattle, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight – including three straight ATS wins as underdogs – and they dominated the Seahawks in Seattle in the opener, outgaining them by 246 yards in a 30-13 win. Matt Stafford is expected to be back under center this week and the Rams should be as healthy as they’ve been all season.
27. Green Bay Packers (3-6) – I absolutely thought that Kenny Pickett’s second quarter throw to Jaylen Warren was a backwards pass and therefore should’ve been a fumble and a first-and-goal situation for the Packers. That may or may not have altered the result of that game. Green Bay is not a good football team and is on a 1-5 ATS slide. It bears mentioning that they have four losses (against one win) on games decided by four points or less.
28. Chicago Bears (3-7) – The Bears did not turn the ball over, did not allow an offensive touchdown and didn’t allow a sack for the first time since 1998. They played as clean of a game as you can – and still only beat the worst team in the NFL by three points. Oh, and they didn’t cover. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.
29. New England Patriots (2-8) – All those Super Bowl wins have justifiably insulated Bill Belichick from the indignity of being fired midseason. But there is absolutely no doubt that he has to go. His decision to bench Mac Jones on the final drive of the game was comical both for its stupidity and its blatant trolling of Jones. Did Belichick really think that putting in an ice-cold Bailey Zappe for the final drive was going to give the Pats the best chance to win? Belichick is off the rails.
30. New York Giants (2-8) – Washington has been the one team that New York has completely dominated over the last two decades. The Giants have won seven of their last nine games against Washington. Going back further, they are 21-10 in the last 31 meetings and 32-16-1 in their last 49 games against the Commanders.
31. Arizona Cardinals (2-8) – I’m not really buying a Cardinals resurgence now that Kyler Murray is back under center. If it were not for that one wild scramble in the final minutes, the Cardinals lose that game. Also, Matt Prater is ridiculous. The guy makes 50-yard field goals look like nothing, and he was the other key to Arizona’s victory. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS after a win and they haven’t won back-to-back games since December of 2021.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-8) – Frankly I’m shocked that the Dallas-Carolina number wasn’t at least two touchdowns. Dallas has shown that it can chew up and spit out bad teams. And five of Carolina’s eight losses this year have come by 10 points or more, including three of their last five games.
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