NFL Power Rankings Week 1
Last year was the worst NFL season of my career, a horror of unspeakable defeat and monumental failure.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Did he actually just admit to LOSING?!?!”
I know, I know: bettors in The Online World of Gambling are all WINNERS! As my friend Raphael Esparza likes to say, “Gambling Twitter is undefeated!” The Online World of Gambling is paved with triumph and gold. No one ever loses. No one that gambles should ever concede infallibility. And no professional is allowed to project anything but Absolute Certainty.
Whenever I converse with someone that bets on sports – professionally or recreationally – I instantly dismiss them the minute they start rattling off all their conquests or when they begin bragging about how great they are. Because if they were serious, they would speak in hushed, reverent tones about their victories while burdened by the crushing weight of past defeats.
For me, the losses have always been what makes gambling real. Life is about stakes. Consequences. Actions and reactions. Thermodynamics. Good and evil. Yin and yang. You can’t have a winner without a loser.
Every professional football game is ruled by those stakes. That’s why we love it. If you don’t experience the pain of loss, then how can you ever really understand and appreciate the joy of victory?
I’m the type of person that hates losing a lot more than I like winning. You don’t get to that point without experiencing loss in your life. Not just in gambling or in sports. You must have a clear understanding of what you truly fear in order to motivate your actions to succeed.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick didn’t love winning; they hated losing. Jerry Jones will never win another championship because he doesn’t hate losing enough and is instead chasing some cowardly affirmation. The NFL is dotted with men that fall on one side of the blade or the other. And the results often speak for themselves.
I’ve done a lot of winning throughout my 18-year professional career. Big winning games. Amazing winning seasons. Incredible winning runs that last months at a time. I never fixate on those, though. Most I barely remember. For me, gambling has never been about chasing a high. I don’t do it for the dopamine hit or as some kind of validation of my manhood. I don’t do it for fun.
My motivations have always been simpler. Purer, some would say. I’m motivated by fear and hatred. The fear of failure. The hatred of that feeling of loss and helplessness. Sheer bitterness and contempt for any acceptance that the world is as cruel and indifferent as I know it to be.
And last year I was forced to face exactly those things that I’ve always despised. The result is a year that will be forever burned into my soul. It will never scar; it will always be a delicate wound just about to open, emptying all those feelings of pain, shame, frustration, depression and weakness.
We are on the eve of the 2023 campaign. It will be a grueling six-month orgy of violence and adrenaline. It will be at the same time a completely unique experience of cosmic energy while also being a simulacrum of every NFL season to come before it. This adventure exists outside of time – yet also completely dependent on it.
This is all I have thought about since the end of last season. This moment. Not for redemption. I can’t change the past. Not for salvation. There’s none to be had. Instead, I am ready to plunge my soul ahead with a sense of focus and clarity. Armed only with my rage. Moving toward something and away from something else.
I’m not seeking glory. Though I know it will come. And when it does, it will be just another moment of relief. Another fleeting glimpse of safety. Calm. Then I will remember what it is that I was running from in the first place and start off once again.
There are no winners in an NFL season. Only survivors.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) – Defending Super Bowl champs are 19-4 straight up and 14-7-2 against the spread in Week 1 over the last 23 years. Kansas City is 21-11 ATS in season openers over the last 32 years, and Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in 10 season openers with the Chiefs.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) – So far this millennium, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is just 4-19 (17.3%) ATS in Week 1. Jalen Hurts has also been vulnerable in true road games the last two seasons, going 6-13 ATS away from home and 3-9 ATS as a road favorite.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) – I think Joe Burrow and his calf are going to be fine and he will have another dominating season. However, I can’t just ignore how sloppy Burrow was last year in Week 1 (four interceptions) after missing the preseason because of an appendectomy. Burrow has also struggled against the Browns, going 1-4 straight up against them and 0-4 in Cleveland.
4. Buffalo Bills (0-0) – The Bills have been the best Week 1 bet in the NFL over the last 20 years, going 14-6 ATS in their season opener. Buffalo was a double-digit favorite in both games against New York last season, and they are 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings with the Jets.
5. San Francisco 49ers (0-0) – This is a tough task for the Niners this week, traveling across the country for an early kickoff against a tough Steelers team. Getting Joe Bosa back helps. But if Gorge Kittle can’t go, that definitely ups the degree of difficulty as well. San Francisco has won only one of its last five season openers.
6. New York Jets (0-0) – Detroit’s backdoor cover against the Eagles in the season opener made it seven straight seasons that the team that was featured on Hard Knocks covered the spread in Week 1. Also, Aaron Rodgers is 7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. The Jets are just 5-25 SU and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games against AFC East opponents.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) – This is Pittsburgh’s first Week 1 home game since 2014, so I would expect a big showing from the home crowd. The Steelers are an incredible 41-21 ATS in their last 62 games as an underdog and a stellar 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.
8. Dallas Cowboys (0-0) – Dak Prescott has been compared to Kirk Cousins a lot. Both guys are considered overpaid. Both put up huge numbers and have irritatingly good win-loss records in their careers. Both are also clearly limited in their ability to get their teams to the Super Bowl. One area where Prescott and Cousins are dead opposites: Prescott is an outstanding 21-12 ATS in his career in primetime games. He is also 27-7 straight up and 24-10 ATS in his career against divisional opponents.
9. Miami Dolphins (0-0) – Is there a more entertaining nondivisional matchup this week than the Dolphins-Chargers? This game is actually a rematch of a 23-17 home win by Los Angeles last year. That score was a bit misleading as the Chargers outgained Miami by over 200 yards and held the ball for nearly 20 more minutes (39:38 to 20:22) in one of the most lopsided time-of-possession games of the 2022 season.
10. Baltimore Ravens (0-0) – This will be Baltimore’s third time as a double-digit favorite in Week 1. They wrecked the Bears in 2001 as a 10.5-point favorite and did the same to the Chiefs in 2009 as 13-point chalk. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 season opening games under John Harbaugh and has covered the spread in six of the last seven.
11. Cleveland Browns (0-0) – Last year’s season-opening win snapped an absurd streak of 17 straight years without a Week 1 win for the Browns. They are 2-22-1 in Week 1 dating back to their 1995 return to NFL and they are 0-10-1 SU in their last 11 Week 1 home games. The Browns are 10-21 ATS as home underdogs overall.
12. Detroit Lions (0-0) – It is put up or shut up time for the Lions, this year’s Trendy Team. Look, I feel the same way about Detroit that most people do: I like the young talent, I like the direct, hard-nosed style that they employ, and they have some nice pieces. However, expectations and hype have a way of crippling teams in Detroit’s situation. The Lions are 23-11 ATS over the last two seasons and are drawing over two-thirds of the action in Thursday’s game.
13. Denver Broncos (0-0) – Denver is 32-8 SU at home in the month of September dating back to 2002, and they are an overwhelming 13-1 SU at home against divisional opponents in the first month of the season.
14. Seattle Seahawks (0-0) – Seattle has come charging out of the gate the last several seasons, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four season-opening games. The Seahawks have won eight straight Week 1 home games, including last year’s ridiculous win over Denver on Monday Night Football, and they are 6-2 ATS in those eight victories.
15. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) – Don’t be surprised if the books move this line off the 3.0 and back down to its open at 2.5. The Chargers are taking a slim majority of the tickets and cash in this Miami matchup. However, rumors are starting that sharp money is jumping on the Dolphins on both the spread and the moneyline.
16. New Orleans Saints (0-0) – Dennis Allen is a pathetic 15-38 SU and 21-32 ATS in his career as a head coach. The Saints have an overwhelming home field advantage, the better quarterback, and the more talented team heading into this Week 1 matchup with Tennessee. If Allen doesn’t have his guys ready for a rock fight, I think it is going to be a negative harbinger for what could end up as his last season, ever, as a head coach in the NFL.
17. Atlanta Falcons (0-0) – The Falcons haven’t won a season opening game since 2017 and they have lost four straight Week 1 home games. Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in Week 1 over the last season, covering the spread last season in a heartbreaking 27-26 loss to the Saints that saw them blow a 26-10 fourth quarter lead.
18. Chicago Bears (0-0) – This spread has been one of the biggest movers on the board over the last few weeks with both sharp and public money pouring into Green Bay. The Bears are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games against the Packers and are a dreadful 5-18 ATS in all divisional games the last four seasons.
19. New York Giants (0-0) – Daniel Jones is just 1-10 SU in his career in primetime. That begs the question: why the hell are the Giants playing so many primetime games? Jones has lost four straight primetime home games, and he is just 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.
20. Minnesota Vikings (0-0) – Over the past four seasons, the Vikings have been favored by 6.0 or more points 11 times. Seven of those games came against the hapless Bears and Lions, with Minnesota going 3-4 ATS in that role against their rivals. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS against nondivisional opponents as a favorite of 6.0 or more and their last ATS win in that role came in Week 3 of the 2019 season against the Raiders.
21. New England Patriots (0-0) – Bill Belichick has had months to prepare for the Eagles offense, and I think he’ll have the Patriots defense ready to go. New England has held its last four Week 1 opponents to an average of just 12.7 points per game.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) – Peter King is the latest to drink the Jaguars Kool-Aid, picking Jacksonville to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC this season. Look, I may be a little too low on the Jaguars this year. But I’ll believe it when I see it. The last three years that Jacksonville has entered the season with any type of expectations (2008, 2018 and 2019), they combined to go 16-32 straight up.
23. Washington Commanders (0-0) – Washington says that they are ‘optimistic’ about getting Terry McLaurin back for their Week 1 game. However, they signed Jamison Crowder to the practice squad this week, and that strikes me as a move that suggests they don’t expect to have their No. 1 receiver this Sunday.
24. Green Bay Packers (0-0) – Green Bay played its starters a lot more in the preseason this year. I think part of that was because Aaron Rodgers is gone. I also think that the coaching staff was looking to prepare differently after getting annihilated by a combined score of 71-10 in their last two Week 1 games. Matt LaFleur is 13-4 ATS in his last 17 games as an underdog.
25. Tennessee Titans (0-0) – It looks like there has been a bit of buy-back on the Titans. The Saints-Titans line has been flopping around 3.5 and 4.0 this offseason. But a late surge of Titans money has dropped it down to a flat 3.0, and I’ll be stunned if it moves from there before kickoff. The Titans are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 3.5 or more.
26. Carolina Panthers (0-0) – Bryce Young will be the 18th quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to start in Week 1 of his draft year. The last one to win their first start? David Carr in 2002 in a 19-10 win over the Cowboys. Seven of the last eight No. 1 overall picks to start in Week 1 have lost, including Trevor Lawrence in 2021, with Kyler Murray earning a tie in Week 1 of 2019. The last No. 1 pick to make their first start without throwing an interception was Jeff George in 1990. Since then, top overall picks have gone 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS in their first game.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) – The Mike Evans situation is simmering. He wants an extension. The Bucs front office has told Evans, Devin White and Antoine Winfield that they don’t have any money for extensions this offseason. I’m sensing a lot of frustration from the veterans in this locker room, and how that plays out through the first two months will be a key subplot for this squad.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) – Chandler Jones now joins a long, distinguished list of guys that the Raiders organization has pissed off. I don’t know all the details, but Jones was not at the Raiders facility on Wednesday, and I’ll be surprised if he plays this weekend. Not only is that a key loss to a defense that is already overmatched, but you can’t overstate the impact that the circus that is the Raiders front office has on team morale. This, coming on the heels of the Josh Jacobs mess, doesn’t bode well for this group’s karma.
29. Houston Texans (0-0) – It is absolute stupidity that the Texans are allowing C.J. Stroud to make his first start on the road at Baltimore. Why? What is the upside here? What sense does it make to throw Stroud to the wolves like this? Quarterbacks that were first round draft choices are 4-12-1 SU and 6-11 ATS in their first career start.
30. Los Angeles Rams (0-0) – The Rams roster enters the season with the second-youngest average age in the NFL at 25.3 years per player. (Green Bay is No. 1 at 25.0.) It looks like the Rams will be without Cooper Kupp this weekend because of injury. If you throw out their head-tilting 51-point outburst against Denver last season, the Rams averaged 15.4 points per game last year in seven games without Kupp.
31. Indianapolis Colts (0-0) – In case I haven’t made my feelings clear I just want to get it down on paper: Anthony Richardson is going to be a bust. A spectacular bust. The guy is like if JaMarcus Russell and Johnny Manziel had a child. It is absolutely insane that the Colts are starting Richardson, a guy that played just 13 games in college, and right now this looks like one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NFL.
32. Arizona Cardinals (0-0) – The Cardinals are starting a rookie wide receiver, a rookie right tackle and a rookie cornerback. Two of their offensive line starters – Elijah Wilkinson and Hjalte Froholdt – were guys they picked up off the scrap heap this spring. Starting quarterback Josh Dobbs has been on the roster for 15 minutes. Some guys named “Jonathan Ledbetter” and “Dennis Gardeck” are set to start on defense. Yup, it’s going to be a long year for these guys.
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