by Mike Allen - 8/15/2023

NFL player performance best bets and predictions George Kittle San Francisco 49ers

The 2023 NFL preseason is officially underway. And, like anyone else, we are doing our best not to overthink it.

It's good to see the players back on the field playing throw and catch. However, outside of the battles for a starting quarterback position, preseason football only makes me more anxious for Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

I am not a fan of anxiety. Most people would agree, at least in our conscious minds. This is where NFL futures bets come into play, though.

Tis' the season! Several of the major online sportsbooks have a plethora of betting odds available for us. There are team performance odds as well as over/unders for a particular player's performance throughout the 2023 regular season.

Player performance betting odds are what we are going to focus on today. For example, the freshly minted New York Jet, Aaron Rodgers, has over/under betting odds of 8.5 interceptions thrown. Both are set at (-115) for him. A good argument can be made for either side of the total.

There are a ton of different betting lines for the various players at the skill positions. Finding which ones to bet on can be overwhelming, a lot like the menu at The Cheesecake Factory. Too many options can leave us undecided.

We have sifted through the sand, though, and found the best bets for NFL player performance in 2023.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Best Bets

Dak Prescott Player Performance Odds and Predictions

Over 11 INTs: +100

Under 11 INTs: -130

Dak Prescott. Have we seen your ceiling yet? You signed one of the largest contracts in the history of professional sports in 2021, and we have yet to witness Prescott take his game to the championship level.

In the following Fall, the Cowboy quarterback had one of the best seasons of his career, finishing 2nd in the voting by the Associated Press for NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

Last season, though, we saw an alarming level of regression from the franchise player. In just 12 games played, Dak threw a career-high 15 interceptions. His INT percentage of 3.8% is more than double his career average in his other years played.

Why is the over/under sitting at just 11 picks, though? Shouldn't we hit the over? It's even money. Hold your horses, Cowboy fans.

While I believe that Dallas shouldn't be paying him 50 million dollars this season and that we have already seen the best Dak Prescott we ever will, I can't take anything away from the guy's work ethic.

That is part of the reason we saw him hit his big head on the ceiling so early in his career. From a business perspective, this was a genius move. The guy didn't plan it that way, though. He certainly believes in himself.

Is his INT rate of 3.8 going to decrease significantly? In all likelihood, yes. He can more than cut this number in half, though, and still throw more than 11 picks.

Is he going to tighten up? Sure. However, we still project Dak Prescott’s regular season total at 13-15 interceptions thrown.

Pick: Dak Prescott to Throw Over 11 Interceptions in 2023

George Kittle Player Performance Odds and Predictions

Over 5.5 Touchdown Receptions: +100

Under 5.5 Touchdown Receptions: -130

Just like the betting odds for Dak Prescott's INTs thrown, it's clear which side the money has gone. Making a case, though, for George Kittle to reel in only 5 or fewer touchdowns in 2023 is not something I can do with honest eyes.

The 7th-year San Francisco 49er emphasized he feels healthier than ever heading into the 2023 season.

One cool thing about Kittle is that he is arguably just as good of a blocker as he is a pass catcher. This gives his offense a lot of flexibility/unpredictability when he is on the field.

I know San Francisco is loaded with firepower, and that's why the over/under is set as low as it is, but I can't help but lean toward him catching more than 5. Kittle played in only 15 games last year but snagged 11 touchdowns.

That was a career-high, and his previous season's best was just 6. Oddsmakers are looking at his time in the league as a whole, but I am openly siding with recency bias on this one.

He is healthier than ever. The tight end has excellent chemistry with his new quarterback Brock Purdy. All 11 of those TD receptions were thrown by Purdy. Oh, and remember George's previous career high of six? Well, he caught seven over the final four games of the regular season!

Pick: George Kittle with Over 5.5 Touchdown Receptions

In Conclusion

Today, we came up with a couple of bets that will likely last you the length of the 2023 NFL regular season.

Yes, Prescott throwing more than 11 interceptions is a bet I like.

The bet on 49ers Kittle catching six or more touchdowns, though, I'm in love with! He has seven over his previous four games. Bet your daughter's dollhouse on it! This one will likely cash before Black Friday.

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2023 NFL Player Performance Best Bets and Predictions