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NFL Office Pool Picks Week 4

by Spencer Toth - 9/26/2023

NFL office pool picks Week 4 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

The first 3 weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and we’ve all gotten a solid look at every team. The Vikings, Broncos, Panthers, and Bears find themselves in an 0-3 hole, while the Dolphins and Eagles are the only two remaining undefeated teams. Favorites went 9-7 straight up, with all 9 winners covering the spread in the process. It was the first time this season the favorites got the job done ATS, and the top dogs will be eager to once again assert their dominance on the league. We went 10-6 last week, churning a profit for the second consecutive week. Here’s a look at all 16 matchups for Week 4, with the best bets ATS attached.

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Detroit Lions (+1.5) Over Green Bay Packers

The Lions deserve to be favorites on the road against Seattle, but I’ll gladly take the free point on offer as insurance. Jared Goff took down the Chiefs in their Week 1 primetime matchup and will once again find success in the air against the Packers. Jordan Love hasn’t proven himself under the brightest lights and failed to score in the first 3 quarters last week. Against the Lions, if he finds himself in any sort of a hole, Dan Campbell will shut the door and ride out another close primetime victory. Lions 28, Packers 23

Atlanta Falcons (+3) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Falcons are getting a full field goal in London over the Jaguars and will be able to keep this one close enough to get the cover. Bijan Robinson and the Falcons run game will be the difference maker as Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars haven’t been able to slow things down on the ground. The Jaguars will be eager to get a shock loss to the Texans washed out of their mouths, but it will be a long and sore flight home for the AFC South team after they get dominated in the trenches. Falcons 20, Jaguars 17

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) Over Cleveland Browns

These AFC North rivals square off in a pivotal divisional matchup in Week 4. And while I expect the Browns to come out on top, they will be unable to cover this short spread. The loss of Nick Chubb wasn’t felt in Week 3, as the Browns ran riot over the Titans in a 27-3 drubbing. However, against a hungry Ravens team, they will be unable to pull away and will rely on a last second field goal to take the lead to get the victory at home. Browns 20, Ravens 19

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Over Tennessee Titans

As long as Burrow continues to play through his calf injury, the Bengals will oust the Titans in Week 4. His success as a quarterback isn’t due to his legs, and he proved he can still be very effective without scrambling out of the pocket with the same intensity. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were able to bounce back from their 0-2 start, and a win over the identity-stricken Titans will bring the Bengals back to .500. Bengals 27, Titans 13

Denver Broncos (-3) Over Chicago Bears

Against anyone else in the league, it would not be wise to lay points on the Broncos just 1 week after they gave up 70 points on defense. However, the Bears are a different level of terrible, and even the struggling Broncos can cover this short spread in Chicago. Russell Wilson secured the bag and was unable to deliver victories despite a solid defense last season. In this matchup, he won’t need to be anywhere near his best to outfox Justin Fields, and the Bears will have to wait until at least Week 5 to post their first win of the season. Broncos country gets to celebrate a rare victory. Broncos 21, Bears 13

Indianapolis Colts (-1) Over LA Rams

The Colts have yet to name their Week 4 starter. However, whether or not Anthony Richardson will be able to suit up, they are still in the capable hands of Gardner Minshew. Mihael Pittman has his flaws stopping him from becoming a reliable WR1 on a contender, but a generous Rams defense will allow him to get going in a Colts victory. We’re not being asked to lay much with the home team, and road victories will be hard to come by for a very thin Rams unit. Puka Nacua has gotten off to a hot start to his career but will see some natural regression against the Colts. Colts 22, Rams 17

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) Over Buffalo Bills

How can you fade the Dolphins? A road trip to Buffalo will test this team's mettle, but in a back-and-forth game I’d rather have these points in the back pocket. Tua Tagovailoa will have his work cut out for him against a stingy Bills defense, but the Dolphins ability to adapt to whatever the defense throws at them will be the difference maker. The Bills may have been able to dominate the Raiders and Commanders for their 2 season victories, but Miami won’t roll over as easily. In the underdog role, the Dolphins are a must bet in Buffalo. Dolphins 35, Bills 28

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

The Panthers haven’t looked good on offense yet this season, but Minnesota can certainly help with that. Tough tests against the Falcons, Saints, and Seahawks have this Panthers offense undervalued, and we will see them finally get going against the Vikings. Kirk Cousins and co. will still get the victory, but the Panthers will prove to the league, and more importantly themselves, that they still have potential. Vikings 23, Panthers 21

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Over Houston Texans 

The Steelers appeared to be in jeopardy of losing their 17-season win streak, but a pair of dominant defensive wins has them in the driver’s seat once again. CJ Stroud got a feel-good win over the Jaguars under his belt in Week 3, but the Steelers won’t give him an inch in Week 4. Kenny Pickett managed to inject some life into their offense against the Raiders. And as long as the Steelers defense stays healthy, there’s no reason to face them against the bottom half of the league. Steelers 23, Texans 10

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead against the Packers and will be eager to avoid the same fate against their divisional rivals. The Saints still possess one of the top defensive units in the league, and Baker Mayfield and their negative playstyle will find it very difficult to put together lengthy drives. The Saints offense may be lacking, but it won’t be needed frequently in order to push them over the line. Saints 17, Buccaneers 9

Washington Commanders (+8.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles

Eric Bienemy has been criticized for his aggressive coaching techniques in the past and will undoubtedly be laying it into the Commanders offense in practice this week. A 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Bills in Week 4 has inflated this line, and in a divisional game I love getting 8.5 free points. Jalen Hurts and the infamous quarterback sneak has been borderline unstoppable this season. However, if any defensive line is equipped to slow him down, it’s the Commanders. Washington is still nowhere near the Eagles level, but we’re getting a soft enough line for them to be the play. Eagles 25, Commanders 20

Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) Over LA Chargers

This Chargers defense doesn’t deserve to be nearly a touchdown favorite against anyone in the league, and Jimmy Garoppolo knows how to navigate an offense. The Chargers have the advantage on offense and will be able to shred the Raiders defense, which just gave up 23 points to the lowly Steelers. However, the loss of Mike Williams will see them forced into an adjustment period, and it will be enough to keep this one close. Betting on the Raiders defense to slow down the Chargers is a tough pill to swallow, but this line is too wide, and the Chargers defense is still unproven to warrant laying the points. Chargers 28, Raiders 24

San Francisco 49ers (-14) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals upset the Cowboys as 12-point favorites in Week 3, but the 49ers are a different beast to tame. They’ve won all 3 games by 7+ points and have a combined winning margin of 48. They have all the tools on both sides of the ball to beat the Cardinals, and Brock Purdy will continue to play smart football in their dominating win. A two-touchdown spread in a divisional game will raise eyebrows, but I am more than confident in laying the points with the vastly superior team. 49ers 31, Cardinals 12

New England Patriots (+7) Over Dallas Cowboys

The Patriots were able to take advantage of a reeling Jets team in Week 3 and are good enough to keep this one close. The Cowboys got caught taking it easy against the Cardinals and got burned on the road against the bottom feeder last week. At home, the Cowboys will be able to avoid dropping back to .500, but expecting them to win by more than a touchdown is a tall task. These are the types of games Bill Belichick lives for, and he certainly has a game plan ready to neutralize Dak Prescott and co. Cowboys 24, Patriots 19

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) Over New York Jets

Please, do not lay your hard-earned cash on Zach Wilson. The Jets defense may still be elite. However, when you can’t consistently put points on the board, it is very difficult to lock up victories. We aren’t being asked to lay many points on a team that just ripped off a 31-point victory, and the Chiefs have now held their opponents to just 19 points in the last 2 games combined. Another dominating victory is on the cards, and a New York road trip for Taylor Swift will ensure the Chiefs remain atop the AFC West. Chiefs 30, Jets 10

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) Over New York Giants

I’m not sure why the Seahawks are underdogs in this matchup, and I intend to take full advantage. Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III have formed a powerful partnership in the Seahawks backfield, and the Giants will not be able to match their offensive intensity. The loss of Saquon Barkley has made a dreadful offense even worse, and Daniel Jones has no gameplan without his versatile back in the lineup. Grab the free point and play them on the moneyline, too. I’m calling for a Seahawks blowout. Seahawks 35, Giants 17

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