NFL Office Pool Picks Week 1 - ATS Picks for Every Game

by Spencer Toth - 8/24/2023

NFL office pool picks Week 1 Jared Goff Detroit Lions

After 207 football-free days, the NFL is back. While football being back is great, the fact that we can once again bet on football is even better. Being able to confidently lay down a pick on one game is nice, but being able to strut your knowledge on all 16 matchups each week is a different feat. Office pools allow the true football gurus to show off their stuff, and by following this column you’ll be able to emerge victorious over your opponents, week in and week out.

Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) Over Detroit Lions

The Lions won eight of their final 10 games to close out last season, but they’re being given a little too much respect on opening night. The Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions, and rarely allow for close games at Arrowhead Stadium. They’ve gone 14-3 at home in the last two seasons, and the Lions are not good enough to buck this trend. The Lions will have a solid season, but they won’t get off to a hot start. In what will be a high scoring contest, the Chiefs will drop 35+ and leave the Lions in the dust. Chiefs 37, Lions 27

Arizona Cardinals (+6) Over Washington Commanders

There is some quiet optimism in the Commanders dressing room heading into the upcoming season, but this spread is too high for a team that still has plenty to prove. Sam Howell has looked good in the preseason, and the Commanders defense will always keep the games close. However, the Cardinals are still going to go out there to win games and have been surprisingly good on the road in recent years. There are too many questions surrounding the Commanders consistency to warrant them being almost a touchdown favorite over anyone in the NFL. I expect them to win, but the Cardinals and Kyler Murray will keep it close. Commanders 26, Cardinals 21

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) Over Atlanta Falcons

Both of these teams are deep in a rebuild and will be eager to see what their new signal callers can achieve. The Panthers went all in to acquire Bryce Young, and he will be given the reins to the team for likely the entire season. Young will be able to take advantage of a weak Falcons defense. And while the feisty Mercedes-Benz Arena is a tough place to make your NFL debut, the 3.5 points we are getting is a solid margin for error. A running attack featuring Bijan Robinson will ensure this one stays close, and I’ll be taking the Panthers to pull off the upset with a last second field goal. Panthers 20, Falcons 19

Cincinnati Bengals (+2) Over Cleveland Browns

How long can the Bengals stay underrated? Despite winning the AFC North for the second straight season, the Bengals are once again being placed among the Browns and Ravens heading into the season. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have proven to be an unstoppable duo, yet the Bengals are coming into this game as underdogs. Deshaun Watson and the Browns made some key acquisitions in the WR room in the offseason, but it may take a few games for them to develop the chemistry with Watson. He’s thrown only three passes heading into the final game of the preseason, and the Bengals will be eager to get off on the right foot this year. The AFC North always plays close games with each other, yet the Bengals should have no problem winning outright, covering in the process. Bengals 27, Browns 21

Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) Over Houston Texans

No more excuses for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback finally has some solid receivers around him and must deliver in his 7th NFL season. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and first round pick Zay Flowers, has given Jackson what he has always requested, and an easy matchup against the lowly Texans in Week 1 is the perfect time for him to play with his new toys. John Harbaugh is not a fan of taking his foot off the gas, regardless of the score or situation, and I expect a blowout win for Baltimore. CJ Stroud will have plenty of time to show he’s worthy of his 2nd overall pick, but a game in Baltimore against a team with plenty to prove will leave him exposed. Ravens 33, Texans 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson finished last year off strong, winning their final seven games. A visit to a division rival in Indianapolis is always tough, but Lawrence and co. have the tools needed to get it done. An always stingy defense that now has a suddenly deep wide receiver room will be able to dominate a Colts team that feels as though the season is already over. Jonathan Taylor’s status with the team remains in limbo, and rookie Anthony Richardson is being thrown to the wind. The Jaguars will benefit from an easy division and should have no problem picking up where they left off in the regular season. Jaguars 24, Colts 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) Over San Francisco 49ers

While Brock Purdy stepped up admirably last year as QB3, this year is very different. Mr. Irrelevant from the 2022 draft had no pressure to deliver last season, but this year, as the starter for a very talented 49ers squad, he must get it done. A trip to Pittsburgh is always a tough game, as the Steelers refuse to give an inch, which is one of the reasons they’ve never finished under .500 in Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as head coach. T.J. Watt will be eager to get his hands on Purdy, and I expect the Steelers to get the job done at home on the back of strong defensive play. Steelers 20, 49ers 17

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Despite finishing with a 14-3 record last season, the Vikings still have plenty to prove. Their -3 point differential exposed the holes this team still has. However, when it comes to the NFL, the better QB often wins. Kirk Cousins’ link up with Justin Jefferson put the league on notice, and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans will struggle to replicate that success. While the Vikings often leave it down to the wire, I expect head coach Kevin O’Connell to keep his foot on his opponents throat and urge his men to never let up. Against a visionless Buccaneers team, the Vikings will be able to use their home crowd to take a double-digit lead into halftime, before cruising to an easy victory in Week 1. Vikings 28, Buccaneers 17

New Orleans Saints (-3) Over Tennessee Titans

The Saints finally have their QB. Derek Carr may not be among the upper echelon of NFL QBs, but he’s still more than capable of leading an NFL franchise to wins. For the Titans, they are lacking an identity. Derrick Henry is now 29-years-old, and the top NFL running backs often start declining once they hit 30. Ryan Tannehill isn’t getting any better, and the Titans, despite their weak division, are not expected to get anywhere near .500. For the Saints, they are expected to take care of their weak opposition, and a home game against the Titans is exactly what the doctor ordered. This short spread doesn’t bother me, as the Saints have the QB, wide receiver, and defensive edge over the Titans. Once you factor in the home field advantage, this play becomes a slam dunk. Saints 27, Titans 13

Chicago Bears (-2.5) Over Green Bay Packers

In recent years, the Packers have owned the Bears. Since 2011, the Packers have won 23 of the 26 matchups between these two. However, the departure of Aaron Rodgers has Bears fans hopeful. Justin Fields finished 7th in the league with 1,143 rushing yards last year and is ready to lead a potent Chicago offense to their first playoff win since 2010. For the Packers, they are starting the season with Jordan Love, just the 3rd starting QB for the Packers since 1993. Love will have his work cut out for him, as the Cheeseheads are not used to losing, especially to the rival Bears. However, I expect him to fall short at Soldier field, in a close defensive battle. Bears 17, Packers 13

Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) Over Seattle Seahawks

The Rams put up one of the worst Super Bowl defenses of all time last season, going just 5-12. The injury to Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford certainly hurt their aspirations, and I’m not ready to give up on them quite yet. These division games often result in razor close contests, and I’m more than happy to grab these 5.5 points with the Rams. Geno Smith had a subpar second half of the season last year and could once again fail to meet expectations. The Seahawks may have the more complete lineup, but the Rams will be able to keep this one close on the road. Seahawks 27, Rams 24

Denver Broncos (-4) Over Las Vegas Raiders

It is impossible to overstate how poor Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos were last season. There were legitimate Super Bowl hopes for the Broncos last season, yet a 5-12 record left them well outside the playoffs. This year, hopes have rebuilt themselves as an improved defense combined with enough time for the proven Wilson to build chemistry has the Broncos ready to make a push. For the Raiders, they lost their QB, and have some of the lowest expectations in the league. Their poor defense hasn’t gotten any better, and Jimmy Garoppolo will take some time getting comfy in Las Vegas. I’m not convinced the Broncos will make the playoffs, but they’re good enough to win by a touchdown at home vs the Raiders. Broncos 23, Raiders 17

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) Over Miami Dolphins

The Chargers have all the tools to win, but they’ve been stuck with the Chiefs in their division and have failed to win a playoff game with Justin Herbert. Austin Ekeler and Herbert will always give this team a chance to win, and they are built very similar to the Dolphins. Both have electric quarterbacks but have fallen just short of expectations. Now that Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, the Dolphins have legitimate Super Bowl hopes for the first time in a decade. While I expect them to fall short in this high-profile matchup, they won’t go down without a fight. A late Herbert touchdown drive will be enough for the Chargers to put the pressure on the defending champions in the AFC West. Chargers 28, Dolphins 24

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) Over New England Patriots

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have proven they are the team to beat in the NFC and will be hungry to avenge their Super Bowl loss last season. They have been able to fill the holes created by their departing free agents and once again have a very well-rounded, solid squad. For the Patriots, Bill Belichick will always keep his teams competitive. Mac Jones is certainly no Tom Brady, but a stout Patriots defense keeps them in games. Despite the Patriots home field advantage, the Eagles will be able to start their season off strong with a resounding victory. Eagles 24, Patriots 16

New York Giants (+3.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

In this divisional matchup, I’ll happily take the home dog. Dak Prescott hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant this kind of line, especially against a divisional rival. His shiny new toy in Brandin Cooks will pair up nicely with Ceedee Lamb. However, if Prescott can’t accurately deliver the ball, then it won't matter. Saquon Barkley put his contract dispute behind him and is ready to take the league by storm on his 1-year contract, spearheading a potent offense with an injection of Darren Waller. In the season opener on Sunday Night Football, the Giants will let everyone know their surprise playoff appearance was no fluke and take care of the Cowboys thanks to a time expiring field goal. Giants 27, Cowboys 24

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) Over New York Jets

The AFC East is suddenly very competitive, as the Jets went all in to acquire two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. A sturdy defense that now has a solid complimentary offense makes this Jets team a legitimate Super Bowl threat. However, the 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers is no longer an MVP-caliber quarterback, and it cannot be forgotten he led a decent Packers team to just eight wins last year. As long as the Bills Have Josh Allen, they’ll be in good hands. Allen has proven himself to be a top 5 QB in the league. And now a healthy defense, led by Von Miller, makes this Bills team an AFC favorite. In what is almost a pick ‘em, I expect the Bills to make a statement and win in dominating fashion. Bills 31, Jets 21

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