Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2023-24 NFL League Leaders Props Best Bets and Stay Away from Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 8/20/2023

NFL League Leaders props best bets Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL is a results-driven league, and the football world has a huge fascination with statistics. Whether it is fantasy football or keeping tabs on a favorite player, we are all paying attention to stats. Raw numbers do not always lead to championships, but they can be fun to follow and even more fun to predict! Here, you will find our predictions for our best bets and players to stay away from in the league leader’s statistical categories.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Passing Yards Best Bet: Justin Herbert (+650)

I am extremely high on Herbert in 2023. The man got paid, and the Chargers used their first-round selection on former TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. He has a plethora of healthy weapons from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Herbert threw for 4,739 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns last season with broken ribs and a depleted offense. The Chargers signal caller could break records this year.

Passing Yards Stay Away From: Aaron Rodgers (+2000)

Aaron Rodgers has the eighth best odds of leading the league in yards, and I am just not buying it. He is in a new system and will take time finding chemistry within the offense. He will also be 39-years-old once the season starts. Sooner or later, he will start to fall off, and his numbers will dip. I would bet sooner.

Passing Touchdowns Best Bet: Joe Burrow (+450)

Despite suffering a calf injury a few weeks ago, Burrow was seen jogging and throwing prior to the Bengals’ first preseason game. He will be ready for Week 1. This offense is high-flying and has all the pieces where the Cincy QB could lead the league in TDs. What is not to like with a supporting cast of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon?

Passing Touchdowns Stay Away From: Josh Allen (+500)

The Bills offense looked dysfunctional in the final eight games last season. Stefon Diggs was a distraction, and Allen was inconsistent throwing the ball. There were also rumblings of an elbow issue. Allen also loves running for touchdowns inside the 10-yard line, which could take away passing TDs. This team will be good, but fade Allen to lead the league in touchdown passes.

Rushing Yards Best Bet: Saquan Barkley (+1500)

He flirted with a holdout prior to the season and signed a one-year deal. Barkley will be highly motivated to prove that he deserves that long-term contract. He ranked fourth in 2022 with 1,312 rushing yards. With new pass-catchers like Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt, and Parris Campbell on the roster, Barkley should see more running room. Staying healthy is the only question mark here.

Rushing Yards Stay Away From: Jonathan Taylor (+800)

With the third best odds to lead the league in rushing, I am staying away from the Colts running back for one simple reason. He does not want to be there. Even if he suits up for Week 1, there is nothing worse than a player that is unmotivated.

Rushing Touchdowns Best Bet: Derrick Henry (+550)

Tennessee will still feature a run-first offense, and Henry will be back on top in 2023. Anytime the Titans get close to the goal line, Henry is going to get the football. He tied for second place last season with 13 rushing touchdowns, only behind Jamaal Williams. He is going to strike pay dirt often in 2023.

Rushing Touchdowns Stay Away From: Josh Jacobs (+1300)

Last season, Jacobs led the league in rushing and has made it clear he wants a new payday. He still has not reported to camp, and there is tension between the ball carrier and the organization. If he ends up playing, he has a brand new QB running the offense. If he gets traded, he will have to learn a new offense. Stay away!

Receiving Yards Best Bet: Justin Jefferson (+550)

In three seasons, Jefferson has already racked up 4,825 receiving yards. He has topped 1,400 yards every season and led the league with 1,809 yards in 2022. With Dalvin Cook gone, he is the unquestioned centerpiece of the offense. Expect JJ to repeat in 2023.

Receiving Yards Stay Away From: Cooper Kupp (+800)

He heads into 2023 with the third best odds to lead the league in receiving yards. There are a ton of question marks surrounding the Rams. Kupp is coming off a major injury, Stafford was banged up last season, and the supporting cast is mediocre at best. Defenses should double and triple team Kupp.

Receiving Touchdowns Best Bet: Travis Kelce (+500)

Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down. The prediction here is that he will accomplish something he has never done before in his Hall of Fame career and lead the NFL in TDs. He is the No. 1 option in Kansas City. And when the Chiefs get into the redzone, Mahomes always looks for the star tight end.

Receiving Touchdowns Stay Away From: Davante Adams (+1400)

He led all receivers in touchdowns in 2022, and I am picking Adams to regress in 2023. He played college ball Derek Carr and already had chemistry going into last season. Carr is gone, and steps in Jimmy G. The former 49ers QB is a downgrade from Carr in my opinion. Fade Adams. 

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers