NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8

by Joey House - 10/25/2023

Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.

Surprisingly enough, a 19th-century French writer, not Yogi Berra, is credited with saying, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." This NFL season, that maxim holds true. After a shocking season-opening loss at home, Kansas City has run off a 6-0 SU record (5-1 ATS) and looks to be the cream of the crop in the AFC. Another up-and-coming team, with a young QB, is attempting to challenge the Chiefs supremacy. In the previous three seasons, it had been the Cincinnati Bengals, led by QB Joe "Brrr" Burrow. The Jacksonville Jaguars, under the command of 3rd-year QB Trevor Lawerence, have been nipping at the heels of the Chiefs for the past two seasons.

In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles almost duplicated the start of their 2022 season but could only make it to the sixth game this season instead of the ninth before suffering their first loss. Minnesota and Detroit have flip-flopped first and second in the NFC North, and San Francisco and Seattle are again first and second in the NFC West.

Doc's Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points- Kansas City over Denver: I usually try to stay away from divisional rivals for top selections, especially on the road, but you have to go back to 2014, and eight games, when Patrick Mahomes was a freshman QB at Texas Tech, to see the last time the Broncos won on their home turf.

15 points- Miami over New England: If I were a superstitious bettor, I would be hesitant to bet against the Patriots again after burning me last week. However, Miami has been playing great ball at home, 15-2 in their previous 17 home games. New England is also 1-5 over their six most recent matchups against the Fins.

14 points- New Orleans over Indianapolis: New Orleans are 8-2 SU and ATS against Indianapolis. Indy has been plagued by turnovers this season, with the team giving the ball away four times in its last two games, both of which ended in losses. The Saints are 7th in the league in takeaways.

13 points- Philadelphia over Washington: Despite the overtime scare earlier in the season, Philadelphia has done quite well in recent history against Washington. They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings against their division foe and 5-1 SU in games at Washington. When the Eagles actually run the ball, they have the fourth-best rushing attack in the league. The Commanders, meanwhile, have the 22nd-ranked defense against the run.

12 points- Dallas over LA Rams: The Cowboys bring their second-ranked passing defense to face the Rams' 7th-best passing offense. Los Angeles is allowing 2.6 sacks per game, and Dallas's defense already has 16. Dallas is 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games.

11 points- Detroit over Las Vegas (Monday Night): Las Vegas has the worst rushing attack in the NFL, which doesn't bode well for an offense that is now on their 3rd-starting QB of the season. Detroit is coming off their second loss of the season. The Lions have been very good coming off of a loss, going 3-1 SU in games following their last four losses.

10 points- San Francisco over Cincinnati: While it feels like the sky is falling for some 49ers fans, the fact remains they are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games, as well as 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home contests. The Bengals have also struggled against San Francisco, with Cincinnati going 3-13 SU over the previous 16 games between these two squads.

9 points- Baltimore over Arizona: One of the best ways to win on the road in the NFL is to have a solid rushing attack to control the time of possession. The Ravens fit that bill beautifully, with the 3rd-best run game in the NFL to go up against the Cardinals' 25th-ranked rush defense. Baltimore has won five out of six most recent games against Arizona.

8 points- Jacksonville over Pittsburgh: The Steelers have managed a 4-2 record with the 25th-ranked rushing offense and defense and the 28th-ranked passing offense and defense. Their smoke-and-mirrors act will get exposed against a good Jacksonville team that is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 games against Pittsburgh.

7 points- LA Chargers over Chicago (Sun. Night): The Bears' backup QB, an undrafted rookie out of D-II Shepherd University, defeated Las Vegas thanks to three Raiders' turnovers. The Chargers aren't nearly as generous, ranking 2nd in the league in giveaways with five on the season.

6 points- Minnesota over Green Bay: Expect a ton of passing in this game, as the Vikings have the 30th-ranked rushing offense, and the Packers enter with the 24th. What Minnesota does have is Kirk Cousin and the third-best aerial unit going against Green Bay's 8th-ranked defense. Sadly for the "Pack Attack," their passing attack is only slightly better (23rd) than their rushing unit.

5 points- Buffalo over Tampa Bay (Thur. Night): Tampa Bay limps into Buffalo, with QB Baker Mayfield, WR Chris Godwin, and LG Matt Feiler all questionable on a short week. The Bills have been almost automatic at home, going 15-3 (SU) in their last 18 home games. They've also feasted on the NFC, winning eight out of their previous nine games. It could be worse for the Buccaneers...this game could have been in December.

4 points- New York Giants over New York Jets: The Giants' starting QB, Daniel Jones, getting hurt may have been a blessing in disguise for the G-Men, as backup Tyrod Taylor has shown the ability to move the ball. The Jets struggle against their hometown rivals, going 2-5 in their previous seven games against the Giants.

3 points- Houston over Carolina: This batch of rookie QBs has been excellent, led by the impressive play of C.J. Stroud. He is 127-213 (59.6%), 1,660 yards, 9 TDs and 1 INT. Even more impressive, Houston is 3-3. Until the 0-6 Panthers win a game, I will be picking against them.

2 points- Cleveland over Seattle: Seattle comes into this game with a solid 4-2 record but ranked 13th in passing and 20th in rushing offense. Cleveland's defense, ranked first against the pass and seventh against the rush, stacks up very well. The Browns feature the second-best rushing attack in the NFL to go along with that stout defense. That is a blueprint for how to win in the National Football League.

1 point- Tennessee over Atlanta: If a team ever needed a bye week, it was the Tennessee Titans. Something is wrong when your running back has a third of your passing touchdowns. It appears that age has finally caught up to Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill. He's 98-158 (62%), 1,128 yards, 2 TDs and 6 INTs. However, Tennessee is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games coming out of a bye-week. The Falcons have done poorly against the Titans, going 2-6 SU in their previous eight meetings.

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8

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