NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6

by Joey House - 10/10/2023

San Francisco continues to be the only dominant team in every NFL game. That is usually the case, though, when you have the 2nd highest-scoring offense and the best-scoring defense in the league. They just held Dallas's offense, averaging 360 yards a game, to 197 total yards and 10 points. One interesting aspect of their dominance is that an offense averaging 33.4 ppg is being led by QB Brock Purdy, "Mr. Irrelevance" from the 2022 draft.

My parents taught me a saying that says, "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones." I don't think Broncos head coach Sean Payton got the same lesson. After calling the former Denver head Paul Hackett's time in Denver "...one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history", Payton promptly led the Broncos to an 0-3 start and then lost the matchup against Hackett's new team, the New York Jets (he's the offensive coordinator there). My parents also taught me to "think before I speak."

Since there was a little foul-up last week with the format, I'll review things as a refresher for the series. I list the point value along with the winner of the game. All picks are straight up and do not involve the point spread, making these plays potential NFL Survivor Pool picks as well. All games are Sunday unless noted otherwise.

Doc's Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

15 points- San Francisco over Cleveland: You take a San Francisco team playing the best football up against a Cleveland team that seems to be struggling to find its offensive identity. The Browns' defense is legit, but it is out on the field too long and eventually runs out of gas.

14 points- Philadelphia over New York Jets: As if the Eagles needed any more weapons, QB Jalen Hurts finally got his tight end into the offensive game plan. Unfortunately for the Jets, nobody in Philly said anything derogatory about them.

13 points- Buffalo over New York Giants: The only thing better than having a bye week after playing over in England is getting to play the Giants. Buffalo wins big.

12 points- Kansas City over Denver (Thursday Night): The second time this season that K.C. has played on Thursday night. If we had to pick against the spread, this game would be close. But the Chiefs have won 10 straight over the Broncos.

11 points- Miami over Carolina: Miami's defense is the weak spot in their armor, but that shouldn't matter in this game. Panthers' rookie QB Bryce Young has been decent but turns the ball over too much. Miami might score a 50-piece here to go with their 70-point outburst earlier this season.

10 points- Cincinnati over Seattle: Bengals' fans hope that last week's performance indicated that he's fully healed from his heel injury. Cincinnati is 8-1 SU in their last nine home contests and 6-0 in their last six games against the NFC North.

9 points- Los Angeles Rams over Arizona: The Arizona Cardinals have the 26th-ranked defense in passing yards, and the Los Angeles Rams have the 5th-ranked passing offense. After this game, they could have the fourth or even third-best passing attack.

8 points- Detroit over Tampa Bay: The Lions are living up to their preseason hype, going 6-1 SU dating back to last season. They also historically play Tampa Bay well, going 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games against the Buccaneers. In order for the Lions to cover the spread this game, they'll have to win by more than 3 points.

7 points- Minnesota over Chicago: The good news for Chicago is they finally landed in the win column last week against Washington. The bad news is now they face the league's second-best passing offense with the league's second-worst passing defense.

6 points- Atlanta over Washington: After starting 2-0, the Commanders have dropped the last three games, allowing 30 or more points in the last four. Atlanta will look to get their offense on track.

5 points- Houston over New Orleans: Texans' rookie QB, C.J. Stroud, is making me re-evaluate how I judge first-year QBs. He's 3rd in the league in passing yards (1,461) and has yet to throw an interception (he has thrown 7 TDs, though). Houston struggles against the rush, but New Orleans' running game is impotent. I'm backing the Texans again.

4 points- Las Vegas over New England: Does Bill Belichick ever have to worry about getting a hot seat? Their offense is dead last in scoring, and the defense is 25th out of 32 in points allowed, with no end in sight. Even though the Raiders are 2-7 in their last nine meetings with New England, they are 8-4 in their last 12 games at home (they're a 3-point favorite on Sunday).

3 points- Baltimore over Tennessee (in England): Just when I think Baltimore has really turned the corner, they lay a complete dud in Pittsburgh. The scheduling gurus didn't do the Ravens any favors, either, as this is their 3rd game in a row away from M&T Bank Stadium. Luckily for them, the Titans have a tough time scoring themselves, only averaging 17.6 ppg. Last week's game in England soared over 60 total points. This one might fly under the radar around 35.

2 points- Dallas over L.A. Chargers (Monday night): One of two things will happen to Dallas after last week's spanking by San Francisco: They're going to come out spitting bullets, or it starts a tailspin. I think this team is too talented for the latter. The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in their last five road games against the Chargers.

1 point- Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Indianapolis may have received a blessing in disguise when rookie QB Anthony Richardson was knocked out of their game against Tennessee. Gardner Minshew II is a very capable backup and should probably be starting to give the rookie some time to gel. Jacksonville finally returns after being "across the pond" for the last two weeks. I think the wear and tear on travel may affect them against a quality opponent.

Here is my record for the season so far:

Week 1: 9-7 59 total points

Week 2: 12-4 119 total points

Week 3: 10-6 79 total points

Week 4: 10-6 97 total points

Week 5: 6-8 69 total points

Total: 47-31 (61.8%) avg. 84.6 points per week

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