NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5
In the blink of an eye, we have now entered the realm of "bye weeks" and only have 14 games this week, which reduces the total possible from 136 points to 105. The four teams with byes this week are Cleveland, LA Chargers, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.
Just like the college season, there is not one dominant team in the NFL this season. The Niners, who are one of the two undefeated teams, have been the best, even though they were pushed to the limit by the Rams. The Eagles are the other undefeated team but have shown different soft spots in their armor.
All of this simply means that the season will be unpredictable and exciting. We've already seen the most points scored by a single team since 1966 when Miami hung 70 on Denver a couple of weeks ago. Dallas is allowing just a tad above 10 points per game on defense, and the entire AFC South is deadlocked at 2-2. The most disappointing team would have to be the Cincinnati Bengals, barely sitting at 1-3, having won two Monday nights ago 19-16 against the LA Rams. The most DISAPPOINTED team would easily be the NY Jets, who lost their prized acquisition QB Aaron Rodgers two plays into the first game of the season.
Even though all of these selections are straight-up picks, I'm putting the spread after the team that I select so I can denote away vs. home. Also, even though all of the games are picked solely on who wins or loses straight up, I use ATS stats as an indicator of statistical trends. The ATS trends take on more importance when they are used in conjunction with the team that is favored, since in order for that team to get a "win" against the spread, they must actually win the game as well.
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Onto Week Number 5:
14 points- Miami over NY Giants: The Giants are a team in complete disarray, going 1-4 SU in their last five games. Even though Miami lost last weekend in Buffalo, they are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home.
13 points- Philadelphia over LA Rams: Even though they won in OT against Indianapolis, the Rams QB Matt Stafford injured his hip. He didn't miss any time but was clearly bothered by it and is officially listed as questionable. The Rams will need him at 100% against an Eagles team that is 2nd in the league in rushing and 7-1 SU in their last 8 games. Philly is also 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 against LA.
12 points- San Francisco over Dallas: This game is probably the marquee matchup of the weekend. San Francisco has the 3rd-best rushing attack in yardage and 2nd-most rushing TDs with nine. In addition, they are 16-1 in their last 17 games at home, covering nine straight. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a NFC West opponent.
11 points- Kansas City over Minnesota: After losing the season opener to Detroit, K.C. has ripped off 3 consecutive victories, but not in their normally dominant fashion. However, they are 6-0 SU in their last 6 road games and the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
10 points- New Orleans over New England: It's the time of year when injury reports need to be closely watched. Derek Carr played through his shoulder injury suffered in week 2 but wasn't the same QB. New England is 5-2 in their last seven games against the Saints.
9 points- Detroit over Carolina: Detroit has certainly lived up to its preseason hype, having beaten Kansas City and sitting at 3-1. The Lions are tough at home, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home contests. Carolina continues to struggle with their rookie QB, winless this season, and only 1-5 SU in their last six games.
8 points- Tennessee over Indianapolis: This is slightly scary as the Titans have been wildly inconsistent so far this season. However, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against the Colts. Indy might be better off with Gardner Minshew at QB rather than their rookie Anthony Richardson.
7 points- Washington over Chicago Thursday night: Chicago is another team that is struggling quite mightily right now and it doesn't look to get any easier for them. They are 1-8 SU in their last nine matchups against Washington and the Bears are currently in a 10-game losing streak, obviously dating back to last season.
6 points- Arizona over Cincinnati: This line has to be because of public perception, because there has been absolutely nothing to warrant the Bengals being favored over anybody, let alone being a field goal road favorite. The Cardinal's QB Josh Dobbs is quietly putting together a Pro Bowl-caliber season, completing 70.7% of his passes and 814 yards with four TDs and zero interceptions. His Bengals counterpart, Joe "Brrrr" Burrow, has completed 57.6% for 728 yards, including 2 TDs and 2 INTs.
5 points- Baltimore over Pittsburgh: I initially had this with a higher value but this is the Ravens' second divisional road game in a venue they struggle in (1-5 SU in their last 6 games at Pittsburgh). However, the Steelers are so bad right now that I'm discounting the past, perhaps at my own expense. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
4 points- Buffalo over Jacksonville in Tottenham, England: This is another game I initially had higher, but reduced it because Jacksonville, who beat Atlanta last week in England, stayed over in the U.K. the whole week. Buffalo, who looked very impressive against Miami last Sunday, is the better team but traveling to England and playing against someone who doesn't have to make that trip is asking a lot.
3 points- Houston over Atlanta: This is the first game I've picked a rookie QB against a non-rookie, but honestly, Houston's QB C.J. Stroud looks more like a seasoned veteran than his counterpart in Atlanta does. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC opponents.
2 points- Denver over NY Jets: Anybody that is complaining about Denver's QB Russell Wilson doesn't know what they're talking about. He's hitting at a 67.4% clip, for 1,014 yards with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. It's not his fault the Broncos' defense is giving up an average of 37.5 ppg. The Jets season-opening victory, which was less than a calendar month ago, seems like a lifetime. I think it's safe to say that NBC announcer Rodney Harrison isn't on Zach Wilson's Christmas card list.
1 point- Green Bay over Las Vegas: Another game to keep an eye on the injury report. If the Raiders' QB Jimmy Garappolo can make it back, I could understand flipping this pick. Hence the reason I made it just one point.
Here is my record for the season so far:
Week 1: 9-7 59 total points
Week 2: 12-4 119 total points
Week 3: 10-6 79 total points
Week 4: 10-6 97 total points
Total: 41-23 (64%) avg. 88.5 points per week
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