NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

by Joey House - 9/19/2023

After a turbulent opening in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, "order" was restored as favorites went 10-6 SU. Clearly, my selection skills were a little rusty the first week, as I rebounded with a 12-4 mark and a total of 119 points out of a possible 136.

In 1979, the NFL expanded the postseason format. Since that change, only six teams (3.2%) have started 0-3 and reached the playoffs; the most recent club to overcome those odds—the 2018 Houston Texans. Through two weeks of pro football competition, Houston, Arizona, and Carolina are winless.

Then there are others, such as the AFC Championship loser Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Chargers, also a 2022 playoff team, that are virtually playing for the postseason lives less than a quarter of the way through the season.

After last week, where there were no double-digit point spreads, Week 3 had four different games open at 10 or higher. The underdogs continued to cash tickets last week, going 6-10 SU and an even better 9-5-2 ATS. Road teams, for the second consecutive week, were better than .500, going 9-7. This will be a trend to keep an eye on, as there will most likely be a regression to the mean and the home teams eventually balance out the wins.

Just as a refresher for the series, I list the point value along with the winner of the game, so there is no confusion. All picks are straight up and do not involve the point spread, making these plays potential NFL Survivor Pool picks as well. All games are Sunday unless noted otherwise.

Doc's Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points- Baltimore over Indianapolis: Baltimore survived a tough divisional road test, winning last week in Cincinnati. They return home to face a better-than-expected Colts team that has a rookie QB, Anthony Richardson. However, he was knocked out of last week's game and is in the concussion protocol. Without him, the Colts might be competitive with backup QB Gardner Minshew, but doubtful to win big road games like this.

15 points- Dallas over Arizona: Arizona lost in heartbreaking fashion last week, blowing a 28-7 lead late in the 3rd quarter in losing to the New York Giants. Things don't get any easier for the Cardinals as Dallas, the team who shut out the Giants 40-0 in the season opener, visits State Farm Stadium. This is one of the four double-digit spreads mentioned above.

14 points- Kansas City over Chicago: Kansas City, just like myself, rebounded from a rough Week 1 loss with a solid road victory over one of the up-and-coming teams in the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though the Chiefs have yet to really get on track offensively, if the defense continues to hold good offenses to less than 300 total yards and no TDs, they might not need the explosive KC offense from year’s past. It may be a long season for Bears fans.

13 points- Jacksonville over Houston: This year's crop of rookie QBs has been much better than anticipated, and C.J. Stroud is a big reason why. He unfortunately suffers from the same afflictions that seem to plague Houston's rookie QBs: a porous offensive line. Through 2 games, he's been sacked 11 times, a little over 10% of his pass attempts. Until the Texans can keep him upright, it'll be a long and painful road to their first victory.

12 points- Buffalo over Washington: The Commanders pulled out a win in a location (Denver) where they have historically played poorly. Now they play a team (Buffalo) whom they have struggled against, going 2-8 SU and ATS against the Bills. Buffalo learned that if you don't turn the ball over (4 turnovers in their week 1 loss, none last week), it's much easier to win.

11 points- Philadelphia over Tampa Bay (Mon. night): The Eagles seemed to have picked up right where they left off last regular season, winning at Foxborough and their home opener. After some questionable play-calling in the game against the Patriots, Philly got back to pounding the rock down their opponent's throat, to the tune of 259 yards on the ground. Tampa Bay has the league's 2nd-best rush defense after two games. Whoever wins that battle will likely come away with the victory.

10 points- Seattle over Carolina: The worst rookie QB of the bunch was also the first one taken, Carolina's Bryce Young. While Seattle's "Twelfth Man" isn't likely to intimidate a QB coming from the SEC, a Pete Carroll-inspired defense just might.

9 points- San Francisco over NY Giants (Thur. night): The Giants expended a lot of mental energy in that impressive comeback win in Arizona. Going to San Francisco on a short week is not the way you want to be rewarded.

8 points- Las Vegas over Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has never won as a road favorite against the Raiders. The opening line for this game? Pittsburgh minus one. We think that trend continues.

7 points- New England over NY Jets: The Patriots probably couldn't wait to hit the road, dropping two games at home that felt like they should have won. The Jets are still going the Zach Wilson route. However, if he has another game like his last game (12-27-170 yds, 1td-3ints), that leash will get mighty short.

6 points- Detroit over Atlanta: The Falcons' QB Desmond Ridder has been a very pleasant surprise, but we get to see him make his first road start of the season. In true Lions fashion, Detroit follows up its impressive season-opening win against Kansas City with a head-scratching overtime loss to Seattle.

5 points- Miami over Denver: Miami makes its home debut after going a perfect 2-0 on their road trip. Denver "should" be 2-0 but coughed up leads in both of their home games against Las Vegas and Washington. Miami's offense has been impressive this year, as has their defense. They move to 3-0 for the second consecutive year.

4 points- Minnesota over LA Chargers: The Chargers are one of those 0-2 teams that are practically fighting for their playoff lives. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is in the exact same boat. With this game being at home and a 1 p.m. start, the All-Pro Kirk Cousins will make his appearance. If you're a betting fan, this would make for a great OVER wager.

3 points- Green Bay over New Orleans: The new starting QB for Green Bay, Jordan Love, may not have made Packers fans completely forget about their past two Hall of Fame starting QBs, but he has thrown for 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Saints just wish the Raiders would have cut Derek Carr 3 years ago so they could have got him then, instead of going through "Famous Jameis" and the "Red Rifle". Better late than never.

2 points- Cincinnati over LA Rams: I'm not sure if Bengals QB Joe Burrow is fully recovered from his preseason calf injury, but something is amiss, as his completion percentage is 11 points lower than his career average. Cincy is in the same boat as the Chargers and Vikings, with this being almost a "must-win" game. Luckily for them, the Rams are only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games in Cincinnati.

1 point- Tennessee over Cleveland: Cleveland fans must think they are cursed: First, RB Nick Chubb goes down for the season in the Monday Night Game against Pittsburgh, and then they watch as the Steelers score two defensive touchdowns to win a game that the Browns had led most of the way. The Titans don't know if they should be happy that they're not 0-2 or pissed off that they're not 2-0.

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