NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 16

by Joey House - 12/20/2023

Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.

For Week 15, we had our best week, record-wise, going 13-3, and our second-highest point total of 113 points. It would have been even higher, but the 1-loss Carolina Panthers drove 90 yards on a 7:35 drive and kicked the game-winning field on the last second. Nevertheless, 13-3 is good, even better when you start trying to account for all the injuries.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points-Philadelphia over NY Giants (Christmas Day): Philadelphia is reeling and needs a win. After getting snowballs thrown at him, perhaps Santa decided to treat Philly with love by bringing the Giants, who are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against the Eagles, in for Christmas.

15 points-Kansas City over Las Vegas (Christmas Day): Whoever created the NFL schedule had a sense of humor. Kansas City visited Las Vegas during the Thanksgiving weekend, winning 31-17. Now they host the Raiders, who are 1-9 SU in their last 10 visits to Arrowhead.

14 points-LA Rams over New Orleans (TNF): I love seasons when 7-7 teams meet with significant playoff implications. According to one major analytic site, whoever wins this game has better than a 70% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Saints, they're 5-1 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to the Rams' home turf. LA is currently installed as a 4-point favorite.

13 points-Buffalo over LA Chargers (Sat): Now that Green Bay has finally lost in December (twice this month), Buffalo has thrown their hat in the ring as December warriors, winning their last eight games in the Christmas month. This stat becomes even more impressive when you see they just beat Kansas City and Dallas. Now they play a team that just gave up 63 points to (cue Chris Berman's voice) "The Raiders."

12 points-Denver over New England: New England is 5-15 in their last 20 visits to Mile High Stadium. If they couldn't win with Tom Brady and company, what makes you think they will win with Bailey Zappe? Denver is 8th in Turnover Margin at plus 5, and New England is 29th with minus 8. You do the math.

11 points- Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (Sat): Like a growing number of games this season, this is a matchup featuring preseason backup QBs. The Bengals' Jake Browning has done admirably, completing 73.6% of his passes en route to leading Cincinnati to a 3-1 record. Pittsburgh's Mason Rudolph will be Pittsburgh's third different starting QB. Cincinnati has yet to lose, winning three straight, since dropping a 16-10 game to the rival Steelers, and Pittsburgh is the polar opposite, dropping their last three games.

10 points-San Francisco over Baltimore (Christmas night): This matchup proves that Santa is an NFL fan: He gets to watch this game after finishing his work from the night before. Some are saying this could be a Super Bowl preview. In a true battle of strength-versus-strength, the Ravens have the best rushing attack in the NFL, with 163 yards a game. The Niners have the 3rd-best rush defense, giving up 89 yards. Something has to give, and San Francisco will get them...this time.

9 points-Chicago over Arizona: Since acquiring Montez Sweat in the middle of the season, the Bears defense has held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. Unfortunately, their playoff hopes were dashed after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against Cleveland. With Carolina's win last week, Arizona is only one game out of first pick in the NFL draft.

8 points- NY Jets over Washington: The Jets have struggled on offense, ranking 30th in the league with 14.4 points per game. Luckily for New York, Washington has been a complete sieve this season, serving up 30.2 ppg and dead last in scoring defense. For its struggles, New York has played decent defense, ranked 11th in scoring with 20.5 ppg and 7th in total yards per game at 298.4 yards per contest. Commanders' fans are counting down the games (3) until head coach Ron Riveria is fired.

7 points-Cleveland over Houston: The legend of Flacco continues to be written. The most recent chapter was overcoming a 10-point deficit and defeating the Bears 20-17 last week. Flacco's completion percentage could be better (57.9%), but he has as many touchdown passes (7) as injured starter Deshaun Watson did, but in half the amount of games. The Texans won in overtime last week against Tennessee with backup QB Case Keenum, and starting QB CJ Stroud is still in the concussion protocol.

6 points-Tennessee over Seattle: Seattle squeaked by against a reeling Eagles team on Monday night. But QB Drew Lock, filling in for the injured starter Geno Smith, has a career 3-9 record on the road in games he's started. Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Seahawks.

5 points-Dallas over Miami: While Miami has a stellar 10-4 record, they have yet to beat a team above .500 for the season. Bad news for Fins fans, as Dallas also has a matching 10-4 record. Full disclosure: I hope I'm wrong about this pick as an Eagles fan, but I don't think I am.

4 points-Jacksonville over Tampa Bay: This matchup features the two South leaders of each conference. It's good that Tampa Bay isn't in the AFC, as they are 1-8 in their last nine games against teams from that conference. Jacksonville has been road warriors lately, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

3 points-Carolina over Green Bay: After their impressive run of 15 consecutive wins in December, Green Bay has now lost their last two and appears to be imploding from the inside. The Packers also haven't played well away from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, going 1-5 SU in their last six road contests. Carolina hasn't started tanking for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes, mounting a 4th-quarter comeback last week against Atlanta.

2 points-Minnesota over Detroit: The strange thing about confidence pools is usually the lower-valued games are the most competitive, and this contest certainly fits the bill. While the Vikings would need a miracle to catch the Lions in the division, Minnesota currently is tied with three other teams for the last playoff spot. Luckily for the Vikings, they're 6-3 SU in their last nine games and 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings against the Lions.

1 points-Indianapolis over Atlanta: The Colts have owned the Falcons since the AFL-NFL merger, going 15-2 SU since 1966. The last time Atlanta beat Indianapolis was 12 years ago, in 2011. The Colts don't just win; They cover as well, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Indy also wins the takeaway battle, going plus 4 over the season compared to the Falcons minus 6.

2023 Total Record

Week 1: 9-7 59 total points

Week 2: 12-4 119 total points

Week 3: 10-6 79 total points

Week 4: 10-6 97 total points

Week 5: 6-8 69 total points

Week 6: 11-4 84 total points

Week 7: 6-7 41 total points

Week 8: 11-5 101 total points

Week 9: No article

Week 10: 9-5 67 total points

Week 11: 10-4 85 total points

Week 12: 10-6 90 total points

Week 13: 8-5 58 total points

Week 14: 6-9 51 total points

Week 15: 13-3 113 points

Total: 118-76 (60.1%)

Finally, from our family at Doc's to yours, have a warm and joyous holiday season, and thank you so much for making Doc's your trusted source for handicapping.

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 16

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