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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 15

by Joey House - 12/13/2023

NFL confidence pool picks Week 15 Easton Stick LA Chargers

Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

One of the biggest challenges in handicapping the NFL at the end of the season is correctly judging a team's mental fortitude and how to factor that into our analysis. In a perfect world, these professionals would go out every week and give 100 percent and let talent and a little bit of luck decide everything. However, as we all know, we live in a "far from perfect" betting universe. Some teams with disappointing records have clearly checked out and are simply biding time for next season. Then there are the NFL Draft guidelines that "reward" the teams with the worst record with the higher picks. The NFL prohibits teams from intentionally "tanking" and losing on purpose, but honestly, what incentive, other than pride, does Carolina have for winning?

We had a rough time last week, losing our most significant pick in heart-wrenching fashion. In the last 4:34 of the game, Miami went from covering a 13.5-point spread to losing the game outright... AT HOME! If you had made a $100 moneyline parlay of the two underdogs from Monday night, you would have cashed for over $2000. Throw in Kansas City's loss at home, and you have a crazy week in the NFL.

16 points- Kansas City over New England: The defending Super Bowl champs look merely mortal these days. However, I think this makes the Chiefs even more of a "sure thing," as they are not playing for home-field advantage in the playoffs; they're playing for their playoff lives.

15 points- Miami over NY Jets: Monday's epic collapse put the Dolphins a full game behind the Ravens for first place in the AFC. They look to get back on track against a Jets team that is 0-7 SU in their last seven visits to Miami.

14 points- San Francisco over Arizona: With their dismantling of Philadelphia two weeks ago, San Francisco leaped to first place in the NFC, holding the tiebreaker over both the Eagles and Cowboys. The Niners are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games against NFC opponents.

13 points- LA Rams over Washington: The Commanders' head coach, Ron Riveria, looks like a "dead man walking," and the Rams are in the middle of the playoff hunt. Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in their last ten December games.

12 points- Baltimore over Jacksonville (SNF): The Ravens are perched on top of the AFC alone, one game ahead of Miami and two games ahead of three other teams, including the Jaguars. Baltimore is 11-4 SU in their last 15 games against AFC South foes, including two wins over Jacksonville.

11 points- Dallas over Buffalo: Buffalo is coming off of their huge road victory against Kansas City. Their reward? They get to play arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now. Over Dallas's 5-game winning streak, they've posted an average margin of victory of 23.4 points per game.

10 points- New Orleans over NY Giants: The Saints find themselves in a 3-way tie for first place, and their two home games become "must-win" affairs. The Giants are in the midst of a modest 3-game win streak but have been poor on the road this season (2-5 SU and the victories came against Arizona and Washington).

9 points- Cleveland over Chicago: For all the troubles the Browns have encountered this season, they're currently atop the AFC Wild-Card heap. The Bears have had issues on the road, going 2-9 SU in their last 11 games away from Soldier Field. The Browns' 38-year-old, unsigned free agent QB Joseph Vincent Flacco has gone from sitting on his couch to potentially leading the Browns to the Superbowl. He threw for 311 yards and 3 TDs with 1 pick in his second game with Cleveland, a 31-27 win over Jacksonville.

8 points- Atlanta over Carolina: Just like New Orleans above, Atlanta finds themselves tied for the NFC South lead. The Falcons are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against the Panthers. There is a distinct possibility that Carolina finishes the season 1-16. The Panthers outgained the Saints 303 to 207 yards last week and lost 28-6.

7 points- Cincinnati over Minnesota (Sat): The Vikings officially named Nick Mullens the starting QB after he came on in relief of Josh Dobbs in last week's riveting 3-0 win over Las Vegas. Minnesota is 1-7 SU in their last eight trips to the "Queen City."

6 points- Detroit over Denver (Sat): Detroit has been a solid team over the past season and a half, going 14-6 SU and ATS in their last 20 games. They're 3rd in the league in yards gained and 15th in yards allowed. Denver's offense is 24th in yards gained, and their defense is 30th in yards given up, with their rush defense dead last in yards allowed and yards per attempt (5.1 yards).

5 points- Houston over Tennessee: The Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been nothing short of spectacular. The Titans' massive come-from-behind win on Monday night in Miami was so emotional that they're bound to have a letdown. Houston is right in the mix of the playoff hunt, and while Tennessee is still alive, they need a lot of help.

4 points- Green Bay over Tampa Bay: I remember in the early 2000s, Tampa Bay struggled in the cold weather, losing two playoff games in cold Philadelphia before finally winning the NFC Championship, in Philly, during their 2002 SuperBowl year. Overall, the Bucs prefer warmer weather, with a 21-64 record in games under 50 degrees.

3 points- Seattle over Philadelphia (MNF): Two weeks ago, the Eagles had the best record in football. Now, they don't even lead their division. After being throttled by their division rivals from Dallas, Philly is forced to travel to take on a team they have lost seven straight to. The Eagles have lost their last three games in Seattle and haven't won there since 2008 when Andy Reid was the coach and Donovan McNabb was under center for the Birds. Full disclosure: As an Eagles fan, I HOPE I'm wrong about this pick, but I don't think I am.

2 points- Las Vegas over LA Chargers (TNF): The Chargers are the latest team to lose their signal caller, as QB Justin Herbert injured his throwing index finger and needs surgery. Easton Stick (I swear I'm not making these names up) is his replacement, and they also signed ex-TCU QB Max Duggan. Las Vegas's defense was lights-out last Sunday, holding the Vikings to just a field goal. Sadly, Minnesota's defense was just a bit better, shutting out the Raiders in the first 3-0 game since 2007 and the third instance in the last 40 years. This game could be a repeat of last week, but Las Vegas gets the field goal this time.

1 point- Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (Sat): A coin toss in the truest sense; my model has this game ending up 20-20. The strengths of each team align with each other, and it should be a close contest. When everything is balanced like this, I default to the home team.

Here is my record for the season so far:

Week 1: 9-7 59 total points

Week 2: 12-4 119 total points

Week 3: 10-6 79 total points

Week 4: 10-6 97 total points

Week 5: 6-8 69 total points

Week 6: 11-4 84 total points

Week 7: 6-7 41 total points

Week 8: 11-5 101 total points

Week 9: No article

Week 10: 9-5 67 total points

Week 11: 10-4 85 total points

Week 12: 10-6 90 total points

Week 13: 8-5 58 total points

Week 14: 6-9 51 total points

Total: 118-76 (60.1%)

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