NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13

by Joey House - 11/29/2023

Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.

The only bad thing about having three games on Thursday was it reduced Sunday's schedule by two. Subtract another game from Sunday because of the "Black Friday" experiment and the standard Monday night game, and you're left with only 11 games on Sunday, which just seemed light. At least over half of them (6) were close, one-possession games. There wasn't a significant season-ending injury for the first time in what seems an eternity.

After Pittsburgh's offensive outburst on Sunday (the first game they gained over 400 yards in 58 tries), the Steelers must be asking themselves why they didn’t can offensive coordinator Matt Canada sooner. I hope you didn't have the Lions on Thanksgiving Day like I did, or you may have also vomited from that performance. If you're an Eagles fan, ensure your defibrillator is fully charged because something tells me it will be frequently used.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

13 points- Dallas over Seattle (TNF): As a lifelong Eagles fan, it pains me to say this, but I'm so glad this Dallas team is this good because it makes my job picking much easier. These conference foes don't meet often, only 18 times in the last 43 years. Dallas is 6-4 SU in the previous 10 games they've hosted Seattle. The Cowboys have been perfect at home this season, going 6-0 ATS. The Seahawks have struggled as of late, going 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 contests.

12 points- Miami over Washington: Six weeks ago, Washington was 3-3 and very much in the mix of the early NFC playoff picture. They're in a free-fall now, losing five out of six games and firing their defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, after giving up 431 yards and 45 points on Thanksgiving to Dallas. I believe head coach Ron Riveria is a "dead-man walking", as the Commanders seem listless. Miami has struggled on the road, going only 3-8 SU in their last 11 away games, but that shouldn't matter against Washington. Road woes aside, the Fins are a solid 10-4 ATS over their most recent 14 games.

11 points- Kansas City over Green Bay (SNF): I feel slightly bad for the Packers because one of their best advantages at home is wasted on a Kansas City team that is quite at home themselves in frigid temperatures. You have to go back to December 30, 2018, to find the last time Green Bay lost in December (15 straight Yuletide month wins). However, that was the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers, and that loss to the Detroit Lions was a game where Rodgers only attempted five passes before he was injured, and Deshon Kizer took over as QB. The Chiefs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings with the "Pack Attack" and look to notch another win.

10 points- Tampa Bay over Carolina: Carolina fired first-year head coach Frank Reich after only 11 games. The soundness of that logic escapes me at the moment, but the Panthers are a dumpster fire. Their defense is by no means the worst (except in rushing TDs, where their 18 allowed is, in fact, dead last). Tampa hasn't been much better, but their players at least don't appear to have quit. Furthermore, the Bucs are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against their divisional rivals.

9 points- Pittsburgh over Arizona: The 2023 Steelers don't do many things well besides simply finding a way to win. However, their rushing attack, which is slightly better than average, should find success against the Card's 30th-ranked rushing defense, giving up 130 yards per game. Arizona has been awful away from home lately, posting a winless 0-9 SU record over the past two seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers' Magic Act confounds their opponents, dazzles their fans, and produces another victory.

8 points- LA Chargers over New England: With each passing New England loss, I can't help but think we're seeing the end of an era. How much job security do six Super Bowl rings get Patriots head coach Bill Belichick? The Chargers have been wildly disappointing this season but can get on track with a win in Foxboro. Well known for their last season charges (8-3 SU in their previous 11 December games), the Chargers QB Justin Herbert leads a passing attack 10th in the NFL in yards (2679) and 5th in touchdowns thrown (21).

7 points- Houston over Denver: The Broncos have also dipped in their bag of tricks and run off five consecutive wins, including victories over Kansas City and Buffalo. They've done this despite having a defense that is 30th in the league in yards allowed. The Texans' rookie QB CJ Stroud is a rookie in name only, as he leads the second-best passing attack in the NFL. The Broncos suffer when they emerge from their lofty perch at Mile High Stadium, going 3-13 SU in their last 16 road tilts.

6 points- Jacksonville over Cincinnati (MNF): The Jaguars continue to be the darling of the NFL, with an 8-3 SU and ATS, which is tied for the second-best ATS record with Dallas (Philly is first at 7-2-2 ATS). Bengals' backup QB Jake Browning looked okay, but for some reason, Cincinnati decided not to run the ball, logging just 11 carries for 25 yards. The Bengals either hate Florida or have too much fun down there. Either way, they're 2-8 SU in their last 10 games in Jacksonville.

5 points- Detroit over New Orleans: Detroit muffed a chance to put themselves in 2nd place in the NFC entirely by themselves by their poor Thanksgiving Day effort. New Orleans is 12th in yards gained and allowed. However, their pass defense is strong, 7th in yards surrendered and 2nd in interceptions with 14. This should only moderately slow the Lions down, as they're 3rd in passing and 7th in rushing offense. The Saints are 4-6 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC opponents. This record isn't good when you're in the NFC South.

4 points- Tennessee over Indianapolis: This divisional game could be interesting, as the Colts are scoring 24.5 ppg (8th in the NFL), while the Titans are giving up 20.4 ppg (ranked 10th in the league). Conversely, each team is ranked 27th in scoring: Indy in defense (24.4 ppg) and Tennessee on offense (16.8). The Titans are counting on the Colts to continue to struggle in their matchups, with Indy going 1-5 SU and ATS in their past six games against Tennessee. Colts' star RB Jonathan Taylor is out indefinitely with a thumb injury.

3 points- Philadelphia over San Francisco: A rematch (and possible preview) of last year's NFC Championship Game; Philly has the best record in the NFL and is tied with the Niners for 3rd best scoring offense (28.2 ppg). However, with San Francisco's top-ranked defense, the 49ers have opened as a 3-point road favorite. The Eagles have owned the Niners in recent memory, going 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these NFC powerhouses. The over 46.5 looks very solid.

2 points- LA Rams over Cleveland: While San Francisco may have the top-ranked scoring defense, Cleveland has the best defense in yards allowed, giving up 248 yards per game. Sadly for the Brownies, they're one of the teams to suffer the season-ending loss of their QB. They made the patchwork hold up against the hapless Steelers but were soundly defeated in Denver. For the past three seasons, the Rams TE Tyler Higbee has had one game every season where he erupts for multiple TD catches. Luckily for Cleveland, he did that last week. Unfortunately for Cleveland, regardless of Higbee, the Browns are 1-5 SU and ATS in their previous six battles with the Rams.

1 point- Atlanta over NY Jets: Hopefully, the NFL will refrain from loading up prime-time games based on one player. Having to watch the New York Jets offense in six prime-time games is a form of torture that should be added to the list of banned punishments of the Geneva Convention. The Jets' offense is so bad that in the last two games combined, they've gained 314 yards and 19 points, or what Miami did in one of the quarters against Denver this season. The Falcons are by no means a juggernaut, having lost three out of four. The Jets are just worse, losers of four straight. The one silver lining for Atlanta is their current 4-1 SU stretch against the Jets.

Here is my record for the season so far:

Week 1: 9-7 59 total points

Week 2: 12-4 119 total points

Week 3: 10-6 79 total points

Week 4: 10-6 97 total points

Week 5: 6-8 69 total points

Week 6: 11-4 84 total points

Week 7: 6-7 41 total points

Week 8: 11-5 101 total points

Week 9: No article

Week 10: 9-5 67 total points

Week 11: 10-4 85 total points

Week 12: 10-6 90 total points

Total: 104-62 (62.7%) avg.80.1 points per week

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	January 15, 2025 @ 9:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
Free $60 Account Sign Up

NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13

Most Recent NFL Confidence Pool Picks