NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 1

by Joey House - 9/5/2023

After a long off-season filled with huge retirements (Tom Brady...AGAIN!) and repeat stories (another Green Bay QB at the end of his prime goes to the New York Jets), we are finally here, Week 1 of the 2023 NFL Season. Right from the rip, we have a matchup between one of the dark horses for the Super Bowl, Detroit, going to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

We will provide NFL confidence pool picks for every game each week. These picks are all straight up with no point spread. These confidence pool picks are also useful as NFL survivor pool picks as we will rank each matchup from strongest to weakest.

There are hundreds of different strategies people employ when playing in these contests. I tend to be a little more aggressive early on, as I believe value can be found early on in the unknown. I'm more likely to pick what some might consider an underdog early because it might not be an upset at all.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points- Baltimore over Houston: I love picking against rookie QB's first starts, even more so on the road against a D as good as the Ravens.

15 points- Kansas City over Detroit: Defending Super Bowl champs are 9-4 SU in the following season opener. Those numbers are good enough for me with Mahomes at the helm.

14 points- Jacksonville over Indy: The Colts are 13-24-1 SU since 1985 in Week 1. That time span includes Manning and Luck, and rookie QB Anthony Richardson definitely isn't in their league.

13 points- Minnesota over Tampa Bay: It's a no-pressure regular season game. Cousins wins them all the time. Tampa Bay's QB situation is interesting, to say the least.

12 points- Washington over Arizona: Arizona's QB situation is even worse than Tampa's, after releasing Colt McCoy. There is a lot of young talent in Washington, we just hope Rivera doesn't mess it up.

11 points- Seattle over LA Rams: The Seahawks added a ton of defensive talent, highlighted by former stars DT Jarran Reed and ILB Bobby Wagner, so the unit that was the 8th-worst in scoring stopped holding back a top-10 scoring offense. Rams star WR Cooper Kupp's loss will hurt immensely.

10 points- Atlanta over Carolina: This is more of a selection against Carolina than for Atlanta. The Panthers have another rookie QB on the road with a new head coach who has never won a season opener (0-5 in Indy).

9 points- Philadelphia over New England: A top 5 offense and a top 10 defense is a great way to travel. The mystery around who the real Mac Jones is- the QB who came in 2nd in Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021 or the QB that led the Pats to a 6-8 mark?

8 points- New Orleans over Tennessee: When QB Derek Carr has weapons around him, he's a capable and dangerous QB. That's exactly what he has with WR Chris Olave, TE Juwan Johnson, and RB Jamaal Williams.

7 points- Los Angeles Chargers over Miami: New Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore will probably become QB Justin Herbert's best friend quickly. Drafting TCU star WR Quentin Johnston should also make the signal caller happy. This might not be the only time these two teams meet this year.

6 points- New York Giants over Dallas: My first upset selection. This would truly be an upset as the Cowboys have owned the Giants since 2017 (11-1 SU). I think a changing of the guard is taking place in the NFC East, and the Giants want redemption for years of losses, with no better place to start than as a home dog.

5 points- Cincinnati over Cleveland: With Joe Burrow's injured calf, it might be a good thing the Bengals brought in LT Orlando Brown Jr. to protect his blind side. Cincy is 36-19-1 (65.5%) ATS and with the spread so low between these 2 rivals, we think they'll be able to add onto that impressive cover percentage.

4 points- Pittsburgh over San Francisco: Upset #2. I love taking home underdogs almost as much as I love fading rookie QBs. Throw in a Pittsburgh defense that was 10th in scoring and a healthy T.J. Watt returning in case there was any doubt.

3 points- Las Vegas over Denver: Conflicting trends here, as Denver is 19-5 SU in Week 1 and the Raiders are 9-2 SU against the Broncos. I'm taking the latter, as I think, and I cringe when I say this, the Raiders organization is a little more stable right now than the Broncos.

2 points- New York Jets over Buffalo: Speaking of turmoil, there seems to be quite a bit of it in Buffalo's locker room. Throw in the fact that the Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is taking a year sabbatical, and I think that Aaron Rodgers Jets debut will be a victorious one, with all the weapons surrounding him.

1 point- Green Bay over Chicago: Rodgers' old team, Green Bay, begins a new era with QB Jordan Love under center. A monster trend is that Green Bay is 23-3 SU over Chicago since 2011.

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 1

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