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2023 NFL Betting Season Specials: Denver Broncos

by Mike Allen - 9/5/2023

NFL betting season specials Denver Broncos Javonte Williams

Nobody is happier for a fresh start in 2023 than the Denver Broncos and their fans.

As you are likely aware, the Denver Broncos, specifically Russell Wilson, fell far short of expectations in 2022. Everyone seems to be fading them in 2023, as their quarterback looked like a shell of himself for the first time in his career.

It isn't every year you see such a sharp decline in a player most thought was on his way to being a Hall of Famer. We saw it, though. We all heard the horror stories coming from the locker room that Wilson was alienating himself from the team.

Many former Seahawk teammates began to chime in and echo their sentiments with stories from the past. He is still a highly respectable 108-64-1 throughout his career as an NFL starter, though, and there is a baseline level of hate he will receive because of the interception he threw at the goal line to lose Super Bowl XLIX.

So, what’s the difference between his time as a Seahawk and last year’s debacle?

I'm not making excuses for my fellow Virginian, but Wilson has always had a Hall of Fame head coach under the headsets to keep his respect and ego in check.

What does this mean for 2023? Insert Sean Payton. The long-time New Orleans Saints skipper is returning to NFL sidelines this season as the head coach of the Denver Broncos.

I understand that Wilson isn't Drew Brees, but they have roughly the same style and stature.

I also understand that fans and bettors are not sold on this new marriage, but I am buying into the new coach making a massive difference for the Broncos in 2023.

Today, we have some yes-only betting specials for the Denver Broncos as a team, as well as individual performance.

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Denver Broncos Season Specials

Russell Wilson 275+ Pass Yards in 8+ Regular Season Games: +300

The implied probability of (+300) betting odds is only 25%. So, all we need to do in situations like this is cap this at 33% or higher to make a smart bet. If we don't have an edge on the sportsbooks, we are flipping a coin at best.

We all need to be reminded of that sometimes.

Is there a world where Wilson can swing this in 1 out of 3 seasons? He will need to stay healthy. That's for sure.

Last season, he played in 15 of the 17 regular season contests and threw for over 3,500 yards with a per-game average of 235 yards.

I'm not saying the Broncos will be a playoff team this year. They have a difficult schedule, and Payton isn't a magician. It is safe to say, though, that there will be a progression for Wilson and the Denver Broncos in 2023.

Wilson will rack up some late-game yardage when they're losing to the stronger teams on their schedule. The weak part of the schedule is very weak, and he will likely get to the 275-yard mark when they play teams like the Las Vegas Raiders (twice) and the Houston Texans.

Any Denver Player to Have 10+ Regular Season Rush or Reception TDs: +450

I feel more confident in the yardage odds than I do with these for scoring. The bar is low, though, and the payout is nearly 5 to 1.

Betting odds of (+450) have an implied probability of 18%. So, we need to make the case this happens in one out of every four hypothetical 2023 seasons.

What I like about these odds is they are for any one player. The most likely candidate for this is no longer wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, as he is starting the season with a pulled hamstring. He has underperformed for the length of his brief NFL career, but his injury opens the door for others.

Rookie Marvin Mims Jr. led the nation last year in yards/target. He has the foundation to be a more complete player than Jeudy, and I project the former Oklahoma Sooner to have an outstanding first season in the NFL.

In the backfield, Javonte Williams will enter his third season in the league and has averaged 4.4 yards/carry as a pro. I project a career year for the former Tar Heel.

Courtland Sutton or Javonte Williams Will Have 1250+ Yards from Scrimmage: +500

We are getting full 5-1 betting odds on either of these guys getting to 1,250 yards from scrimmage. While I don't project it from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, the previously mentioned Williams has some value next to his name.

We mentioned Williams' nice 4.4 yards/carry. The Broncos ranked 17th in the league with 4.4 yards per carry and 17th in rushes per game.

The first step towards success for the Broncos in 2023 will be taking the pressure off of Wilson, and Williams has a decent chance at 1,000 yards just on the ground this year.

Javonte Williams to Have 100+ Rush Yards in 8+ Regular Season Games: +1200

Here is one more on Williams. This one isn't very likely, but it pays out a ridiculous (+1200). It's worth a flyer.

He will get a lot of work, and maybe Wilson isn't the only one who remembers his Super Bowl interception in the endzone. Coach knows. Hopefully, he calls for the handoff more often than not from the goal line.

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