NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/31/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 9 opening line report Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys

We have reached the halfway point of the NFL season, and there is little margin for error for the Super Bowl hopefuls. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks, bringing the season record to 13-11. After conceding the opening touchdown, the Dolphins stormed back for a 31-17 victory, covering the 9.5 point spread in the process. The Bengals won outright as 5.5-point underdogs, but we failed to complete the sweep as the Bears didn’t cover the 8.5 point spread in their Sunday Night loss to the Chargers. The favorites went 12-4 straight up and 9-6-1 ATS in Week 8. And before we head into the Week 9 picks, here’s the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 8.

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Jaguars stay hot: Jacksonville won their 5th straight game to extend their lead atop the AFC South, and a home playoff game appears to be on the cards for the 6-2 Jaguars thanks to their 20-10 victory over the Steelers.
Cowboys win big: The Cowboys made quick work of the Rams, scoring 33 first half points en route to their 43-20 victory. Dak Prescott threw for 4 touchdowns, as the Cowboys had this one in the bag from the opening drive.
Vikings win, but lose Cousins: Just as the Vikings were turning their season around, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in their 24-10 win over the Packers. Justin Jefferson is due to come off the IR in the coming weeks, but the Vikings playoff hopes took a huge hit with the season-ending injury to their star quarterback.
Panthers get a win: It wasn’t pretty, but Carolina won’t care as they earned their first win of the season with a 15-13 victory over the Texans. Bryce Young threw for 235 yards, with a touchdown and no turnovers, as he put together the best performance of his young career.
Bengals back on track: The Bengals handed the 49ers their 3rd straight loss, as they climbed above .500 for the first time this season. Key injuries to LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel have left the 49ers in freefall, as they relinquished their NFC West lead to the 5-2 Seahawks.
Broncos snap the losing streak: The Chiefs had won 16 straight games against the Broncos, but an under the weather Patrick Mahomes finally tasted defeat against his division foes. Denver kept the Chiefs out of the endzone in their 24-9 Week 8 victory.
Chargers make a statement: After back-to-back losses, the Chargers demolished the Bears in front of the nation on Sunday night, inserting themselves back in the AFC Wild Card race. Justin Herbert threw for 298 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, as LA proved they can still put wins on the board despite a less than stellar defense.

Week 8 is now behind us, and it’s time to lock in some bets for the Week 9 slate. Locking in the best price early in the week can be the difference between winning and losing, and the value of an extra point or two in our pockets cannot be stressed enough.

Game 1: LA Rams at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-3)
Both of these teams are coming off a loss, and a Week 9 victory is needed from both teams to keep themselves in the NFC Wild Card race. Green Bay appeared to have their new franchise quarterback with Jordan Love. However, after a hot start to the season, the Packers have now dropped 4 straight games. Since Week 2, their offense has failed to eclipse 20 points, as the Love magic has begun to wear off in Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Rams were expected to be near the bottom of the NFC but have put together a decent 3-5 start to the year. Matthew Stafford has a pair of elite receivers with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and will be optimistic they can make a mid-season playoff push with a win over Green Bay. The Rams struggle to contain a persistent run game, but that won’t be a problem against a weak Packers rushing attack. If the Rams jump out to an early lead and force the Packers to play catch up, their quality in the secondary will prevent the explosive plays and keep this one tight down to the wire. I expect LA to win this game outright and will happily take the free field goal on offer. This spread could certainly fall below the critical number of 3 before Sunday’s kickoff, making this a bet that must be locked in as soon as possible.

Pick: LA Rams (+3)

Game 2: Washington Commanders at New England Patriots

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-3)

There are very few teams the Patriots should be favorites against, and the Washington Commanders are not one of them. Mac Jones and co. are 2-6 so far this season, with embarrassing losses to the Saints and Raiders on their record. They have been unable to limit scoring chances, as they’ve given up 21+ points in each of their last 5 games. Can we trust this offense to score 24+ assuming the streak continues? Absolutely not. The Commanders defense has been in the media, as their defensive line is among the best in the league, but they lack the depth in the secondary to turn them into a truly elite force. However, with just 1 win in their last 5 games, a loss to the Patriots would all but seal their fate of missing the playoffs for the third straight season. After losing another close game against the Eagles, Washington will come out firing on all cylinders in Week 9. Sam Howell had the best game of his career in Week 8. And with the Patriots averaging the 31st most sacks in the league, they won’t be able to expose the Commanders biggest weakness; their offensive line. Just like the Rams, we’re getting a free field goal with the team that I think should be favored, and this spread could certainly dip below the critical number of 3 before kickoff.

Pick: Washington Commanders (+3)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

I won’t be arguing the wrong team is favored here, but I’ll still happily snap up the 3 points on offer with Dallas. After a stellar start to the season, the Dallas defense cooled off. However, it has regained their form in recent weeks. They scored 33 first half points against the Rams, thanks to a safety and pick 6 midway through the quarter. Their defense consistently puts points on the board, or sets up a short field for Dak Prescott, which will be the difference maker in this massive NFC East showdown. The Eagles defense has been significantly downgraded compared to what they rolled out last season, thanks to cap issues and injuries. There is no doubt the Eagles have the better offense in this matchup, but the edge on offense is far smaller than the edge the Dallas defense has over the Birds. The Eagles looked a little shaky against the Commanders, Dolphins, and Jets. And while they may edge out the Cowboys, the 3 points in our back pocket will help us secure the cover. Overall, this is a very even matchup, between the two best teams in the NFC, and I’d rather count on the Dallas defense to get the job done, rather than hoping the Eagles end up on the right side of a shootout.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+3)

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

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