NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/17/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 7 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Week 7 is here, as the NFL hits the middle part of the season, and there is no more time for messing around from the Super Bowl hopefuls. We nailed all 3 of our picks last week, moving our season record to 11-7 against the spread with the sweep. The Ravens got our Sunday started off strong with a relatively sweat free cover in their 24-16 victory over the Titans in London. The Commanders took care of business against the Falcons, winning outright on the road, while the Jets not only covered the +6.5-point spread against the Eagles but took the Eagle's perfect record in a shock victory. The favorites went 11-4 straight up, and 10-5 ATS, as the trend of the favorites either winning and covering, or losing outright, continues. Before we jump into Week 7, here’s a recap of all the action-packed football from Week 6.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Chiefs extend their streak: The Chiefs took care of business at home, extending their win streak over the Broncos to 15 games. Denver’s offense was anemic once again, and there is no relief for the media onslaught facing Sean Payton and the Broncos.
Ravens bounce back: Lamar Jackson may not be getting the MVP attention he deserves, but it won’t matter as long Baltimore keeps winning. His receivers made the plays they are paid to do, as the Ravens held their slender lead atop the AFC North.
Dolphins are inevitable: Despite facing a 14-0 deficit heading into the second quarter, the Dolphins stormed back for a 42-21 victory. Their moneyline odds never dropped lower than -150 despite the early hole, which should tell you all you need to know about this historic offense.
Bengals back on track: Two weeks ago, the Bengals were an outside shot at making the postseason. They pulled out a gritty win against the Seahawks to get back to .500, and their season is still alive.
Disaster for San Francisco: Losing the perfect record always hurts, but the manner in which the Browns got the upset will hurt even more. Not only did the 49ers miss a potentially game-winning 41-yard field goal with 6 seconds to go, but they lost Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to injury. Ouch.
Another 0 falls: The Eagles were the only undefeated team in the league for a mere 3 hours, as they failed to capitalize on the 49ers loss, losing to the Jets. Zach Wilson played another solid game, as the Jets beat the Eagles for the first time in franchise history.
Is Belichick in trouble? The Patriots dropped to 1-5 with another lackluster performance in their latest defeat. The late safety to seal the game sums up the season in Foxborough.
Bills squeak it out: In a mistake filled game, the Bills found a way to win. The Giants shot themselves in the foot several times but will still feel hard done by after a horrendous no-call on the final play of the game.

The Week 7 picks are in, as we look to replicate the stellar showing in Week 6. Make sure you lock these bets in as soon as possible, as these lines may not be available at kickoff.

Game 1: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Lines: Baltimore Ravens (-3)

The Ravens and Lions have both been quietly putting together solid seasons and sit atop their respective divisions. If it were not for several drops against the Steelers, the Ravens would be 5-1 thanks to fantastic play from their former MVP at quarterback. Lamar Jackson has been able to take advantage of the quality defense John Harbaugh has built for him, but I don’t expect it to be enough against the Lions. Dating back to last season, the Lions are 13-3 in their last 16 games, including 4 straight wins of 14+ points since their Week 2 overtime loss to Seattle. The loss of David Montgomery is why this line is where it is, but it could be a blessing in disguise as we’ll get to see the reins come off first round pick Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has thrown 5 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last 2 games, posting 589 passing yards in the process. It still feels as though we’ve yet to see the full potential of this Lions offense thanks to several sizable 4th quarter leads, and a win in Baltimore will let the league know Detroit intends to stay at the top of the standings. Baltimore is good at stopping throws over the top, but they give up plenty of short completions, ranking bottom 10 in completions allowed but top 3 in passing yards against. The activation of Gibbs will be a difference maker, as a composed Goff takes what the defense gives him, on route to a statement victory. Grab the points as insurance before it drops to 2.5.

Pick: Detroit Lions (+3)

Game 2: Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-2)

In Week 6, the Commanders took advantage of Atlanta’s mistakes to get back to 3-3, and temporarily put themselves in the final wild card position. On the other hand, the Giants made several key mistakes of their own, and threw away their chances at upsetting the Bills as 14.5-point underdogs. These NFC East rivals are headed in different directions, and that won’t be changing on Sunday. Washington has been able to consistently run the ball, and Sam Howell is playing smart football and not forcing the ball down the field. Terry McLaurin continued his season streak of hauling in 4+ catches with 6 receptions for 62 yards, and Howell spread out the ball in the red zone, throwing 3 touchdowns to 3 other receivers not named Terry. The Giants defensive line isn’t good enough to make Howell uncomfortable and exploit the protection weaknesses that have plagued the Commanders, and it will result in some redemption for Washington after the Giants stole the final wild card spot last season. Daniel Jones may be back at quarterback. However, regardless of whether he suits up or the Giants lean on Tyrod Taylor, they will find new and creative ways to throw games away. Washington’s defensive front looked more like the daunting defense we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few seasons, and they outmatch the Giants in nearly every major category. Their passing defense issues won’t be exposed, as the Commanders bottle up Saquon Barkley for a comfortable Week 7 victory. I’m shocked to see this line under a field goal. And while it smells of a trap, I’ll take the bait. Don’t be surprised to see Washington all the way up at -4 or -4.5 by kickoff.

Pick: Washington Commanders (-2)

Game 3, Sunday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-2)

We are in for a treat on Sunday night, as two of the league’s heavyweights square off in the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles are coming off a stunning loss to the Jets. And while beating a motivated, angry Eagles team is certainly daunting, the Dolphins have the ability to do so. Miami didn’t panic when they went down early to the Panthers, and never really looked out of the game. It feels borderline unfair that defenses are tasked with slowing down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while MVP candidate Tua Tagovailoa is handing off balls to Raheem Mostert. The Eagles have been exceptional over the last 2 seasons, which will make the Dolphins victory that much sweeter. Philadelphia has given up the second most completions and the 6th most passing yards so far this season, and the Miami speedsters will be licking their lips at the chance to take down the defending NFC champions. Regardless of the fact that this game is taking place at a hostile Lincoln Financial Field, the Eagles won’t be the team to slow down the Dolphins, simple as that. Grab the point for insurance, as this game could easily be a pick ‘em in the coming days.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (+2)

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