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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/10/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 6 opening line report Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

Five weeks down, 13 weeks to go. The standings are beginning to take shape, as the playoff hope for some teams has already quickly vanished. The favorites went 8-6 straight up in Week 5, and for the second time this season, all the favorites who won also covered the spread. We put together another profitable week, going 2-1 on our picks, moving our record to 8-7 on the season. The Panthers were unable to keep it close, as they got blown out of the water in a 42-24 beatdown at the hands of the Lions. Our other two favorites both won and covered, as the Bengals and 49ers both won by several touchdowns, after closing as 3- and 3.5-point favorites, respectively. Before we get into Week 6, let’s take a look at the highlights from Week 5.

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  • Bears get a win: The Bears put their first win on the board as they demolished the Washington Commanders 40-20 on Thursday Night Football. Ron Rivera is on the hot seat in Washington, after snapping the Bears 14-game losing streak dating back to last season. 
  • Jaguars stay solid across the pond: Jacksonville stayed hot in London, taking down the Bills as 5.5-point underdogs. Trevor Lawrence overcame 2 lost fumbles, posting a season high 315 passing yards. 
  • Dolphins make it look easy once again: The Dolphins scored 31 points before the start of the 4th quarter, during their latest offensive rout. The Giants looked as helpless as ever, as their only touchdown was scored by their defense. Ouch. 
  • End of an era: Bill Belichick has suffered 34+ point defeats in back-to-back weeks. They are the first, and second heaviest defeats during his 24-year career in New England. The lack of offense for the Patriots is like nothing we’ve seen in this century, as the glory days in New England have clearly come to a conclusion. 
  • Stroud makes history: CJ Stroud has attempted 186 passes without throwing an interception, setting a new NFL record to begin his career. While the Texans may have lost to the Falcons, dropping their record to 2-3, the franchise’s future is clearly in good hands. 
  • Bengals get back on track: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase made it look easy, as Chase hauled in 3 touchdowns for 192 yards. The Bengals may sit in a 2-3 hole at this stage of the season, but they still have the potential to make a deep playoff run.
  • ‘Brotherly Shove’: The Eagles used their infamous quarterback sneak to great effect as they stayed perfect in their 23-14 victory over the Rams. Jalen Hurts is the hardest quarterback to take to the ground, and Philly will continue to dominate in the trenches. 
  • 49ers dominate: A marquee matchup between the 49ers and Cowboys went down on Sunday night, but the scoreline was not competitive. Brock Purdy and George Kittle linked up for 3 touchdowns, as the 49ers smashed their conference rivals 42-10. The Cowboys tendency to shut down in the big games flared up once again, and the 49ers moved to Super Bowl favorites, at +450 odds. 

The first third of the season wraps up this week, and teams must avoid digging themselves a hole, despite the extra wild card position. There are several tantalizing matchups this week, and locking in the best odds now can be the difference between winning and losing. Here’s the 3 best bets you must lock in now while you still can.

In London, Game 1: Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

The 3-2 Ravens take on the 2-3 Titans across the pond and are coming in as field goal favorites to prevail. Lamar Jackson did all he could in Week 4 to push his team over the line, but several key drops allowed the Steelers to sneak out the victory. In Week 5, I expect his receivers to make the catches they are supposed to and for the Ravens to get the victory. Tennessee got smashed by the Colts last week, despite the fact that Anthony Richardson was forced to leave in the second quarter. Ryan Tannehill has proven time and time again that he is unable to make the correct reads in the pocket, and a fantastic Ravens secondary will have him forcing throws down the field. A strong run game from Tennessee won’t come into play, as the Ravens will grab the lead and never look back. The backdoor cover is always a possibility. However, with the spread under a field goal, and John Harbaugh’s team's nature of playing from whistle to whistle, I expect the Ravens to get the win and the cover. Grab this one immediately, as there is no doubt in my mind that this spread will climb into the 4- or 5-point range before kickoff.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Game 2: Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

The 2-3 Commanders head to Atlanta with a 3-game losing streak under their belt. A blowout loss at the hands of Buffalo before being edged in overtime by the Eagles were understandable defeats. However, when the Commanders lost to the lowly Bears on Thursday Night Football, their playoff hopes took a dramatic hit. What was once a formidable defense is no longer there in Washington. They finished last season with the 7th ranked defense, and a revitalized offense under Eric Beinemy looked poised to make real waves in the NFC East. However, after giving up 40 points to Justin Fields and the Bears, the Commanders have lost their identity. Their hosts snapped a 2-game losing streak of their own with their walk off, 21-19 victory over Houston in Week 5. Desmond Ridder threw for 329 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions, as the budding quarterback put together the best performance of his young career. This is the perfect opportunity to buy low on the Commanders and sell high on the Falcons. These two teams are not far apart in talent, but the Commanders haven’t been playing up to their potential thus far in the season. Sam Howell has what it takes to play the mistake-free football needed to outfox the Falcons, and I’m expecting a rested Commanders defense to wreak havoc on Ridder. The play of Bijan Robinson can only get this team so far, and they barely scraped out a win over the Texans. I have to believe the Commanders are still better than Houston, and I’m expecting a statement win for Washington, as they move back to .500 in Week 6.

Pick: Washington Commanders (+2.5)

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets 

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles have opened up as nearly touchdown favorites on the road against the Jets, but this spread is disrespectful to the Jets defense. Their star quarterback may be injured, but this Jets unit is still more than capable of keeping this one close against Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are no joke. Their ‘Brotherly Shove’ play has caught the attention of teams around the league. And while the Jets may not be able to stuff their 3rd or 4th and short plays, they can keep themselves out of that situation. Philadelphia relies on their domination in the trenches to succeed, but New York has proven they have what it takes to keep them contained on the ground. In the air, Sauce Gardner and the rest of the Jets secondary has already turned New York into a ‘no fly zone’, giving up just 215 passing yards per game. Betting against a vastly superior quarterback is a tall order, but Zach Wilson, who has been playing surprisingly solid football, will be able to keep this one close. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but this one smells like a back door cover, after Robert Salah and his squad refuse to call it a day when they're down late.

Pick: New York Jets (+6.5)

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