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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/3/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 5 opening line report Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers

The first quarter of the NFL season is now behind us, and it’s safe to say we’ve seen enough from each team to get an accurate estimate of where they are at. Favorites went 12-4 straight up, and 9-6-1 ATS. The favorites covered in 9 of the 16 games for the second straight week, but they weren’t able to light up the scoreboards, as the Over cashed in just 6/16 contests. Last week, we went 1-2 ATS, moving our season record to an even 6-6. We took the free points with the Dolphins, but they were outclassed by their division rivals, the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers got embarrassed by the Texans. And our lone win was with the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, who made it look easy. I correctly predicted the Seahawks would be favorites by the time kickoff rolled around and cannot stress enough the value of locking in the best odds early in the week. Before we get into Week 5 picks, let’s look at the biggest storylines from Week 4.

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  • Lions take over NFC North: The Detroit Lions are looking for their first division title since 1993, and a convincing road win over Green Bay is a great place to start. David Montgomery exploded for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns on Thursday Night Football. 
  • Jaguars win at their new home: The Jacksonville Jaguars have become accustomed to winning across different continents, and they swatted aside the Falcons 23-7 in London. 
  • Jackson keeps rolling: It won’t make headlines, but Lamar Jackson made one of the best defenses in the league look helpless. He threw for 2 touchdowns and ran for two more as the Ravens demolished the Browns 28-3. 
  • Red flags in Cincinnati: The Bengals are now 1-3 after scoring just 3 points for the second time this season. Regardless of the health for Joe Burrow, this team needs to start winning games immediately if they are expecting to play meaningful January football. 
  • Bills remind the league who’s boss: The Miami Dolphins offense got humbled by the Bills, as Buffalo took over the lead in the AFC East thanks to a 48-20 drubbing over Miami. The Fins offense can only take them so far, and their defense must match that intensity. 
  • Broncos finally win: Denver was staring at a 28-7 deficit against the Chicago Bears, before turning the game around and winning 31-28. It was not the convincing win over Chicago they were looking for, and Russell Wilson and Sean Payton still have plenty to prove for Broncos Country. 
  • Eagles and 49ers stay perfect: The 49ers easily manhandled the Cardinals to stay perfect, but the Eagles had to work for it. A last second Commanders touchdown forced overtime, but the Eagles kept their perfect record intact thanks to a 54-yard game winner in the extra period. 
  • Chiefs get bailed out: Zach Wilson’s career night got set up in flames after a few questionable calls allowed the Chiefs to run out the final 7:24 of the clock with a 3-point lead. Despite the loss, there is renewed optimism surrounding the Jets once again. 

The bye weeks have begun, but there is still a mouthwatering slate waiting for us in Week 5. Here are the best bets ATS, which must get locked in as soon as possible.

Game 1: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions 

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-9)

The Panthers head to Detroit, still searching for their first win of the season. They took a lead into halftime in Week 4 against the winless Vikings, but a costly scoop and score prompted a Vikings comeback. Bryce Young had a solid game, going 25/32 with 204 passing yards with no interceptions, and we finally saw the Panthers open up the playbook. Their defense will be able to keep them in any contest, which cannot be said about the Lions. Jared Goff is finally looking like the number 1 pick he is and is trying to lead the Lions to their first NFC North title in franchise history. Their 26.5 PPG is good for 8th in the league and is nearly a full 10 points better than the lowly 16.8 PPG Panthers. Goff will be in for a tough outing, as the Panthers passing defense is where they make their money, and this spread is simply too wide. The Lions exemplary run defense won’t be called on, as Young is given the reins to the team and has a career game. The defense will keep them in the game, and we always have a chance at the back door cover like we saw against the Saints. Fading a potent Lions offense is daunting, but when the price is right, it must be done.

Pick: Carolina Panthers (+9)

Game 2: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals 

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The Bengals have gotten off to their worst start under Joe Burrow and find themselves with a mountain to climb sitting at 1-3. Burrow hasn’t been able to link up with his receivers, having thrown for just 728 yards through the first 4 games. To be fair, the Bengals haven’t had any easy matchups yet this season, and a visit to sunny Glendale, Arizona, will give them a chance to fix their season. A loss, or anything resembling a close game, will likely see the Bengals get knocked out of reasonable playoff contention, after making back-to-back AFC Championship Games. Their issues go beyond just Burrow, as their defense has given up the second most rushing yards per game and rank in the bottom half in almost every major category. A stale offense and struggling defense has not been a recipe for success, but a matchup against the Cardinals has me confident they can right the ship. Arizona may have gotten a win over the Cowboys, but they’ve been outscored 44-7 in the 4th quarter thus far. Their inability to close out football games will consistently come back to haunt them, and a desperate Bengals unit will not be taking their foot off the gas. A woeful Cardinals defense, giving up 25.5 PPG, will allow the Bengals offense to get back on track, and I’m not worried about a backdoor cover considering the Cardinals late game form. Grab this line before we have to pay for the hook, too.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers 

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The 49ers have been unstoppable this season, as Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards, and touchdowns. Their offense steals the show, but their 3rd ranked defense giving up just 14.5 PPG is just as critical to their success. A lethal pass rush, combined with little to no room to run in the trenches, has been suffocating for their opposition. Not to be outdone, the Cowboys defense is the best in the league, allowing just 10.3 PPG at this stage of the season. However, the loss of Trevon Diggs has already seen them get taken down a notch, and this is their toughest test yet. Shutting down Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Joshua Dobbs, and Mac Jones is not enough to prove that this defense is legitimate, and Brock Purdy and the plethora of weapons at his disposal will be licking their lips at the prospect of humbling the Cowboys. The 49ers already shredded apart the quality Steelers defense, and there is no reason to expect them to falter at home against Dallas. We’re not being asked to lay very much for the much more proven team and will happily grab the 49ers at the current line.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

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