NFL Betting Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/27/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 4 opening line report Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins

The NFL season is nearing the end of the opening quarter, and the standings are beginning to take shape. The favorites went 9-7 straight up and ATS in Week 4. It was our first negative week as we went 1-2 on our picks, bringing our season record to 5-4 ATS. The Ravens lost outright as massive 8-point favorites thanks to an overtime field goal from Matt Gay, and the Titans didn’t even come close to covering the 3.5-point spread in their 27-3 drubbing at the hands of the Browns. The Bengals won by 3 as 2-point favorites, but it turned into a push for many bettors as the line closed at 3 points.

Once again, the difference of an extra point cannot be overstated, as locking in a better price earlier in the week is how we can increase our chances against the bookies. Before we jump into Week 4, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from Week 3.

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Falcons flounder: After dominating the Panthers and edging out the Packers, the Falcons were confident they could add to their 2-0 start in Detroit. However, the Lions reminded everyone they are the team to be feared in the NFC North.
Chargers stay alive: When the Chargers and Vikings squared off in Week 3, both were looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. The Chargers got the victory, but it came at the cost of Mike Williams for the remainder of the season.
Love gets cheesehead love: Jordan Love overcame a 17-point, fourth quarter deficit in front of the Green Bay faithful, edging out the Saints 18-17 in their home opener. Scoring 18 4th quarter points against anyone is tough, but against a stingy Saints defense is even more remarkable. The Packers are in good hands.
Texans shock the Jags: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars didn’t get too much backlash for their Week 2 loss against the Chiefs, but a home loss against the Texans will raise red flags. It wasn’t one mistake or big play, either, as the Texans outplayed the Jaguars for the entire 60 minutes.
Dolphins hang 70: Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins scored 10 touchdowns on a previously formidable Denver defense. Both running backs punched in 4 touchdowns each, and Sean Payton is suddenly on the hot seat in Broncos country.
Bills are still boss: After choking a lead on national television against Zach Wilson and the Jets, the Bills rebounded with back-to-back blowouts over the Raiders and Commanders by a combined score of 75-13. A tantalizing Dolphins matchup awaits them in Week 4.
Colts get their upset: The Ravens have a tendency to randomly lose very winnable games, and they once again shot themselves in the foot in Week 3. Matt Gay drained 4 50+ field goals en route to the Colts overtime victory.
Taylor Swift celebrates big Chiefs win: Taylor Swift was in attendance to watch her ‘friend’ Travis Kelce dominate the Bears, 41-10. It was a cakewalk for the defending champions, while the Bears look as lost as ever.
Cowboys get routed: The Cowboys got smacked by the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, thanks to smart football from Joshua Dobbs and a lack of creativity from Dak Prescott. Even the greatest teams of all time occasionally slip up, but the Cowboys margin for error atop the NFC East just got even smaller.

A tantalizing Week 4 slate is on tap, with 11 of the 16 spreads coming in at 3.5 points of shorter. Lots of close matchups leave plenty of money to be made ATS, and the importance of locking in the best number cannot be emphasized enough.

Game 1: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins can score. When healthy, Tua Tagovailoa has what it takes to lead an offense to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins have scored a league high 130 points, largely due to the 70 points they hung on the Broncos in Week 3. A trip to Buffalo will be their toughest defensive test yet, as the Bills have given up just 13 points across their 2 victories this year. The Bills defense doesn’t always get the credit they deserve, as Josh Allen and their elite offense steals the spotlight. But make no mistake, the Bills are among the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball, and their defense will continue to be the difference maker throughout the season. In this matchup, there will be plenty of points put up on the board, and when push comes to shove in a late game scenario, the 2.5 points in the back pocket we’re getting with the Dolphins may come into play. There is absolutely no way you can justify laying points against a free-flowing offense like the Dolphins. And while the Bills will certainly have offensive success of their own, this truly feels like a passing of the guard in the AFC East. The Bills pass rush isn’t effective enough to consistently penetrate the Dolphins offensive line. And if Tagovailoa has time to find his plethora of receiving options, the Dolphins will not only cover the spread but win the game outright.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

Game 2: Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Steelers got embarrassed in Week 1, and their offense was quickly being pegged as the worst in the league. A pair of defensive touchdowns carried them to victory in Week 2, and their offense finally came to life in their Week 3 victory over the Raiders. Against the Texans, the combination of an elite defensive front and an improved offensive scheme will be enough for them to get the win and cover. Kenny Pickett is certainly not a future Hall of Famer, but that’s not where the Steelers find their success. In almost every defensive statistic, the Steelers rank among the Top 5 in the league, and there’s a reason Mike Tomlin has had a winning record for 17 straight seasons. They don’t cut corners, and an inexperienced Texans team will learn the hard way that a winning mentality doesn’t develop overnight. CJ Stroud had a solid Week 3, as the Texans got their first win of the season over the Jaguars, as he threw for 280 yards, with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. The second overall pick will be given all season to find his groove, but the Steelers won’t give him an inch. When Stroud is forced out of the pocket, he makes stereotypical rookie mistakes and tries to force the ball down the field. The Steelers will score at least 1 defensive touchdown en route to a surprising 3-1 record and will cover this short line in the process. Ensuring you get (-3) instead of (-3.5) is an option that won’t necessarily be around all week, and the hook on the most common NFL score difference is a critical number to avoid.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Game 3, Monday Night Football: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

Opening Line: New York Giants (-1.5)

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. And when Monday Night rolls around, the line will be flipped. The Giants are slated for their 3rd primetime game of the season, having lost the first two 40-0, and 30-12. Daniel Jones threw for just 241 passing yards and threw 0 touchdowns compared to 3 interceptions in the defeats. While the Giants managed to put together a furious comeback victory over the Arizona Cardinals, Geno Smith and the Seahawks will hand them their third loss of the season. The reigning CBPOY got off to a slow start, but Smith is once again proving he’s a top half quarterback in the league. His rapidly developing chemistry with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield has allowed the Seahawks to pile on the points and force their opponents into passing the ball. When Jones has his run game taken away, especially in primetime, the Giants have struggled to put anything close to a victory on the board. Pete Caroll thrives when the lights shine brightest, and home field advantage is the only reason this line isn’t heavily favoring the Seahawks. This is one you absolutely must lock in as soon as possible, as getting underdog odds on the better team won’t be an option when kickoff rolls around.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

Season Record ATS 5-4

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
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