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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/19/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 3 opening line report Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

The NFL season has closed the book on an action-packed Week 2, as the Overs went an astonishing 13-3, after going 4-12 in Week 1. Week 2 was our second consecutive week of going 2-1 ATS, moving our season record to 4-2. The Bears failed to cover the 3-point spread after throwing a late pick six, but the other two picks cashed as the Dolphins easily covered the -2, and the Rams covered the 8 points thanks to a last second field goal.

Securing the best possible line is critical when betting on the NFL, and last week was a great example. On Tuesday, we got the Rams at +8 before it shifted to just +7 on Sunday. The Rams eventually lost 30-23, and the extra point we got earlier in the week made all the difference. Before we jump into the Week 3 picks, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from Week 2.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

  • Justin Jefferson needs help: Justin Jefferson has amassed 309 receiving yards in the first 2 games of the season, but the Vikings are 0-2. The incredible wideout is the Vikings only bonafide star, but he can’t do it all alone. 
  • NFC South on top: The Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers are all 2-0 to start the season, after the NFC South was the clear-cut worst division before the season kicked off. It’s still early, but strong defenses and the lack of turnovers have resulted in victories. 
  • Seahawks aren’t done yet: After getting shocked by the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks took down the Lions in an overtime thriller to get back to .500. The 31 points allowed on defense will be alarming, but Geno Smith showed he’s still a top half quarterback after his Week 1 goose egg. 
  • The Chargers need defense: The LA Chargers have scored 50 points without turning the ball over through the first two weeks but find themselves 0-2. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekler spearhead one of the league’s best offenses. However, if the Chargers can’t get stops, there is little to no hope the franchise will be participating in the postseason. 
  • Alarm bells in Cincinnati: The Bengals are in trouble. After falling into an 0-2 hole for the second straight season, the Bengals will need to be near perfect if they are to compete in a challenging AFC North. An ailing Joe Burrow cannot afford to rest his calf injury, and a third straight AFC championship appearance is already slipping away for Cincinnati. 
  • Allen and the Bills bounce back: After throwing away a Week 1 victory, the Bills rebounded nicely in their demolition of the Las Vegas Raiders. Josh Allen threw 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and completed 31 passes on 37 attempts. Efficient. 
  • Giants avoid embarrassment: After losing 40-0 in the season opener, the Giants went down to Arizona to visit the league’s worst team. They went down 20-0 at halftime but pulled out a gutsy 31-28 victory to keep their season alive. 
  • Miami has hope: If Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphins can stay healthy, this team has real Super Bowl aspirations. Tagovailoa is the MVP favorite at +500 and has given Miami just their second 2-0 start since 2013. 
  • Down goes Chubb: The Browns were on top of the world after their Week 1 win over the Bengals, but a season ending injury to Nick Chubb in their 26-22 loss to the Steelers has the Browns in ruins. DeShaun Watson looks lost in a Browns uniform, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel for Cleveland. 

Week 3 lines have been dropped, and grabbing the best number possible is critical when turning a profit in sports betting. We’re looking to make it 3 straight profitable weeks and are not scared of locking up the bankroll to secure a better chance at doing so.

Game 1: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens 

Opening Line: Ravens (-8)

The Ravens beat up on the Texans in Week 1, before marching into Cincinnati and taking a 27-24 victory back to Baltimore. Their Week 3 matchup against the Colts gives them a great chance at moving to 3-0, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will be eager to give themselves some breathing room in the AFC North. For the Colts, a Week 2 win over the Texans may have given them some life, but budding QB Anthony Richardson went down with a concussion. Gardner Minshew is a capable replacement. However, in a season where the Colts have no real playoff hopes, the development of their young stud is the priority. The Ravens don’t care who’s at quarterback and should have no problem covering the spread at home. Their elite defense combined with a solid offense has them as one of the Super Bowl favorites, and there is no reason to expect the Colts to keep it close here. Lamar Jackson passes and runs in a touchdown, as the Ravens win by double digits.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Game 2: Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Browns (-3.5)

Nick Chubb suffered a devastating injury against the Steelers, and the Browns offense will be extremely handcuffed going forward. Watson has not been able to replicate his Houston Texans form since moving to the Browns. And when his team needed him most on Monday Night Football, he went 22/40 with 1 TD and 1 INT. Jerome Ford stepped up nicely in Chubb’s absence, but he has enormous shoes to fill and won’t be able to get it done consistently. While the Titans are no longer the powerhouse they were in years past, they are still no pushovers. They edged out the formidable Chargers in Week 2, thanks to a composed game from Ryan Tannehill and some key defensive stops. Derrick Henry is able to chew up the clock if the Titans get a lead, and I see no reason for the line to be where it is in Week 3. Tannehill may not be the next Tom Brady, but he is an excellent game manager, and will keep this one close, if not win outright against the Browns. The Browns looked lost on offense with Chubb and will struggle to consistently put up points without their star. We’re getting the hook early in the week, but I expect a flat +3 line by the time Sunday rolls around.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
 

Game 3: LA Rams at Cincinnati Bengals 

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-2)


This one is risky. The status of Joe Burrow is still in the air, but sometimes sports betting is like trading on the stock market. You have to buy low and sell high. The Rams couldn’t be much higher right now. After entering the season with a 5.5 win total, they shocked the Seahawks in Week 1 and played a competitive game against the Super Bowl favorites, the 49ers, in Week 2. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua have developed an unlikely connection, but there are still many holes, especially on defense for the aging Rams squad. On the other hand, Joe Burrow’s connection with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has been non-existent, and the Bengals couldn’t be in a lower hole. After making back-to-back AFC Championship appearances, the Bengals are in serious danger of missing the playoffs all together. This is absolutely a must win game for Cincinnati, and the pre-season line for this game was all the way up at -7.5 before the season kicked off. The Bengals are still far better than the Rams, and considering they are at home, and we aren’t being asked to lay many points, this is a must bet. You aren’t going to find a better ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity all season, and I expect the Bengals wide outs to step up when they are needed most.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

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