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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/3/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 18 opening line report Jared Goff Detroit Lions

The final week of football is upon us, and there is still lots to play for in both conferences. Both Number 1 seeds are still up for grabs, teams are jostling for playoff positioning, and fighting for their playoff lives. First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Damar Hamlin. Hamlin took a hit and went into cardiac arrest during Monday Night Football and remains in critical condition. The Bills-Bengals game was postponed, and it has yet to be determined how the league will move forward in the final week of the season. This young man's health is far more important than anything that happens on the field, and the entire country is praying for his well-being.

From a betting perspective, we had a solid Week 17 going 2-1 on the plays, moving our season record to 17-16-1. The Texans failed to stay close to the Jaguars, which was our lone blemish on the week. The Seahawks won outright as short underdogs, while the Chargers easily covered the 6.5-point spread in a 31-10 blowout of the LA Rams. Before we jump into Week 18, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from Week 17.

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  • NFC East still up for grabs: The NFC East looked wrapped up a few weeks ago, but the Cowboys have won 2 straight, while the Eagles lost 2 straight. A Cowboys win, coupled with an Eagles loss, would give Dallas an improbable division title. 
  • Lions stay hot: The Lions keep their playoff hopes alive with a 41-10 win over the Bears in Week 17. They have won 7 of their last 9 and have set up a must-win game against the Packers. 
  • Brady turns back the clock: An 8-8 record is nothing to get excited about. However, considering the turmoil in Tampa Bay, Tom Brady will be overjoyed he is returning to the playoffs. He threw for 432 passing yards to go along with 4 total touchdowns en route to a 30-24 win over the Panthers. 
  • Giants are back: The New York Giants are heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2016, just barely getting over the line in December. They were able to beat down on a demoralized Colts team, punching their ticket in Week 17. 
  • Carson Wentz stinks: The Washington Commanders sat 7-5 in late November, in full control of their playoff lives. However, a 0-3-1 run capped off by a brutal Carson Wentz performance leaves them with nothing to play for in Week 18. Wentz threw for 143 yards with 3 INTs and 0 TDs in a must-win game, and he will likely never put on a Commanders, or even an NFL, uniform again. 
  • The AFC playoff race is wide open: The Patriots and Steelers both won, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. Both teams are led by experienced coaches, and mid-tier quarterbacks, but it’s been their strong defenses that have kept them alive heading into the final week of the season. 
  • Who wants the AFC South? The Titans had a 4-game lead in the AFC South, before losing 6 straight games. Their Week 18 game against the Jaguars is a must win and would allow them to sneak into the playoffs at 8-9. 
  • Packers are alive: The Packers were 4-8 a few weeks ago, with the chance of a playoff appearance slim to none. However, 4 straight wins have set up a win-and-in game against the Lions, and Aaron Rodgers will look to silence the doubters once again.

Game 1: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

Last week, I unsuccessfully faded the Jaguars against the Texans, but I will be doing so again. The Titans match up well against the Jaguars and will be naturally playing their hearts out since the winner of this game wins the AFC South, while, in all likelihood, the loser gets sent home. The Jaguars have a middle-of-the-pack defense but are lacking in some key areas. They possess one of the worst passing defenses in the league, which will allow Joshua Dobbs to settle in the game. Of course, Derrick Henry is always a threat. And if the Titans can get a lead, they can easily run out the clock against a mediocre run defense. Additionally, the Jaguars rank 29th in 3rd down conversion percentage but are 1st in preventing 4th down conversions. Derrick Henry won’t let it get to that and should be able to easily pick up key 3rd and shorts throughout the game. For the Titans, they have the second-best rushing defense, but the worst passing defense. If the Jaguars do take the lead, running out the clock will not be an easy task. The Titans will always remain within striking distance and will be able to get the backdoor cover if this game starts to get away from them. All in all, I’m not saying the Titans will win, but a 6.5-point spread is too high for a Titans team that has beaten the Jaguars in 10 of their last 12 matchups.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+6.5)

Game 2: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers have won 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. They need to win against the Browns, and have the Dolphins and Patriots lose, to make the playoffs, but all we care about is this game. Head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his 16-year career and can keep that streak alive with a win in Week 18. The Steelers have had severe offensive issues, but a truly elite defense has kept them alive. In their last 6 games, the defense has kept their opponents to 17 or fewer points in each contest. For the Browns, this feels like a great ‘sell high’ spot. The Browns have nothing to play for since they have already been eliminated from the playoffs and have benefitted from some poor performances from their opposition to get wins. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 games, but the books are overvaluing these wins. Last week, they were victorious against the Commanders, but that was largely due to Wentz doing Wentz things rather than a well-rounded team victory. The Steelers have the defensive prowess to keep the Browns in single digits. And as long as Kenny Pickett is responsible with the football, the Steelers will win by 3 or more points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Game 3: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

This game has been rightfully flexed to Sunday Night, as the stakes couldn’t be higher. For the Packers, the math is simple. If they win, they’re in the playoffs despite starting 4-8. However, a loss ensures they’ll be on the outside looking in. For the Lions, they have to win AND have the Seahawks lose, and Seattle is playing at 4 p.m. EST. The Packers have used a solid defense, and a lethal run game, to remain alive heading into the final week of the season. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon comprise one of the fiercest running back duos in the league and will be able to feast on a poor Lions defense. When one of them has a bad game, the other steps up and delivers, which will always keep the Packers in any contest. For the Lions, life is a little more complicated. They no longer control their own destiny and will know their fate before kickoff. They own a top 5 offense and a bottom 5 defense, which will often lead to high scoring back-and-forth contests. Jared Goff has been playing well in his new home, sitting 6th in passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns. This Lions team is more than capable of keeping this game close, and I will happily take the 4.5 points on the road. The Packers have been susceptible to digging themselves into a hole early in the game, and the Lions offense will not let up if this is the case. I have faith in what head coach Dan Campbell has built, and they will not roll over easily. Even if they enter the game already eliminated from postseason contention, the role of spoiler will leave them still playing hard.

Pick: Detroit Lions (+4.5)

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