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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/26/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 17 opening line report Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

The NFL postseason race is heating up, with just 2 weeks to go in the regular season. Six of the 14 playoff spots have been confirmed, with a whopping 18 teams vying for the final 8 playoff berths. The playoff race has never been tighter, and there will be plenty of high stakes football on tap for the final weeks of the season. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks, bringing us back to .500 on the season. The Lions took care of business, securing the NFC North title with a win over the Vikings, while the Colts and Cowboys both lost outright. Favorites went 12-4 straight up in Week 16, but only 7-9 ATS, with many of the underdogs losing tight games. Before we jump into a crucial Week 17 slate, here are the biggest storylines from a season-defining Week 16.

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  • Steelers aren’t done yet: Pittsburgh has consistently found a way to win as an underdog, and they did so once again on Saturday, stomping the Bengals 34-11 after building a 24-0 halftime lead. In the playoff race, they are still on the outside looking in. However, at 8-7, Mike Tomlin’s winning season streak is on track to be extended. 
  • Browns run riot: Amari Cooper set the franchise record for receiving yards (265) in the Browns crucial win over the Texans. Despite a quarterback carousel, a strong defense has Cleveland sitting at 10-5, with a 99.3% chance at a postseason berth. 
  • Lions win the North: For the first time in franchise history, the Detroit Lions won the NFC North, and they did it on the Vikings home turf. Ford Field will be rocking when Detroit hosts a playoff game, and Dan Campbell has truly changed the mentality for what was once a lost franchise. 
  • Dolphins make a statement: Miami beat the Dallas Cowboys thanks to a last second field goal, getting a crucial win against a team over .500. Dallas has their own road issues, but the win will silence the doubters in Miami, as the ‘Fins are poised to clinch the AFC East for the first time since 2008. 
  • What’s wrong in Kansas City? Patrick Mahomes has lost 6 regular season games for the first time in his career. The Chiefs still have a clear path to the AFC West title, but an aging set of key players has seen several winnable games dropped this season. Travis Kelce hasn’t been anywhere near his usual self, but it’s too early to count out this perennial juggernaut from making a deep playoff run. 
  • Ravens defense steps up: Brock Purdy was -200 to win the MVP award a week ago. However, after throwing 4 interceptions and being benched for Sam Darnold, he’s all the way up at +1000. The Ravens defense dominated San Francisco, en route to their biggest win of the season on Sunday Night. 

Now that Week 16 is behind us, it’s time to dive into a critical Week 17 slate. There are plenty of close matchups on tap, with 12 of the 16 games coming in with a spread of 7 points or fewer, and it promises to be a very eventful Week 17. These picks must be locked in as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when Sunday rolls around.

Game 1: 

LA Rams at New York Giants 

Opening Line: LA Rams (-6.5)

The Rams are nearly touchdown favorites on the road at MetLife Stadium, having won 5 of their last 6 games heading into Week 17. While New York has little to play for, they’re still 3-2 in their last 5, as a strong defense has been able to mitigate their offensive issues. Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor won’t be getting any MVP votes, but the pair of quarterbacks are still more than capable of keeping this one close. LA’s offense has been consistent, but their lapses of concentration on the defensive side of the ball will result in this one being tighter than Rams fans will have hoped. Their inability to get stops when they need it most will flare up against a physical Giants squad, and I expect Saquon Barkley to do just enough to get the cover for his squad. The Rams will be forced to fill up the tackle box to slow down Barkley, leaving their questionable secondary in one-on-one coverage down the field. They’ve been burnt by countless big plays throughout the season, and a fearless Giants offense will have no problems taking several shots down the field. Taylor and DeVito both have the arm strength needed to exploit this weakness. And even if the Rams are up double digits in the 4th quarter, the backdoor cover will always be a possibility against the Rams. Despite the win streak, the Rams have lost the 4th quarter in their last 3 games. And if they don’t build a sizable lead early, I struggle to imagine them getting a comfortable cover. This line is just wide enough to have me betting the Giants, as when it’s all said and done, New York will be within touching distance of their NFC opponents.

Pick: New York Giants (+6.5)

Game 2: 

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts 

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (-3)

The Colts and Raiders square off in a pivotal Week 17 clash, with the loser effectively eliminated from playoff contention. It’s all to play for in Week 17, and I’m struggling to get behind the Colts being full 3-point favorites. Indianapolis has put together a surprising season with Gardner Minshew under center. However, after stringing together 4 straight wins, they’ve dropped 2 of their last 3 against very beatable opponents. The Raiders have benefitted from a pair of defensive touchdowns in each of their last 2 games, as their defense has truly found their stride under Antonio Pierce. Since their Week 13 bye week, they’ve allowed 3 points in a 3-0 loss, 21 points in a blowout win against the Chargers, and held the Chiefs to just 14 points last week. This Raiders defense has all the tools they need to give the Colts issues, and Indianapolis will struggle to consistently move the ball down the field. Las Vegas has plenty of big-time players on the defensive side of the ball, and I’m not only calling for the cover, but the outright win for Las Vegas. They’ve been generating turnovers, taking care of the football on offense, and finishing drives with touchdowns. The Colts have been much better on the road than at home this season, and they simply do not deserve to be full field goal favorites against a hungry Raiders team that will be bringing a playoff like intensity with them to Indianapolis. Grab the free points while you still can, as we saw heavy money come in on the Falcons last week, swinging the Colts from 2-point favorites to 2-point dogs before the game kicked off. This one must be locked in immediately.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+3)

Game 3: 

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens 

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Both of these teams are coming off their biggest wins of the season last week. And with the coveted AFC bye on the line in Week 17, the Ravens will make no mistake at home. Baltimore has one of, if not the, best defense in the league on one side of the ball, and the -175 MVP favorite under center on offense. While Miami may have been able to dispatch the Cowboys last week, Dallas has been incredibly inconsistent on the road this season, which allowed Miami to eke out a win. Tua Tagovailoa has all the weapons he needs on offense to run up the score, but a questionable Miami defense will be under fire from Lamar Jackson and co. all afternoon long. Jackson’s ability to deliver accurate throws on the run, while escaping even the most potent pass rushes, has seen Baltimore turn big negative plays into positive yardage on a consistent basis. Without the Miami defense being able to make big negative plays, I struggle to see them slowing down the Ravens enough to keep this one close. Miami will need to do more than shut down the weak Cowboys road offense to eliminate their ‘fraud’ status, and the Ravens will remind the AFC that they are still the top dog with a double-digit statement win before heading into the final week of the season.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-4)

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