NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/19/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 16 opening line report Jaylen Waddle Miami Dolphins

The NFL season has entered its final 3 weeks, and it’s now do or die time for the playoff hopefuls. Just 4 of the 14 playoff teams have been confirmed, with a whopping 22 teams still vying for the final 10 playoff spots. Last week, we went 1-2 ATS, bringing our season record to 22-21-2. The Browns started things off with a nervy win and cover in Cleveland, but a pair of NFC East contenders both lost outright, with the Cowboys and Eagles falling to the Bills and Seahawks, respectively. Before getting into a tantalizing Week 16 slate, here are the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 15.

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Raiders drop 63 points: After getting shut out by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, the Raiders scored 63 points, including 3 defensive touchdowns just 4 days later. While playoff qualification is still a longshot, after a midseason coaching change, the Raiders franchise will be feeling much more optimistic heading into next season.
Dolphins are more than just Hill: The absence of Tyreek Hill in Week 16 had many concerned about the Dolphins chances against the Jets. However, after a convincing 30-0 victory, Miami will feel confident they can win without their star wideout.
Texans stay alive: A promising season for CJ Stroud and the Texans was in serious jeopardy of being derailed by injury, but the rest of the Texans supporting cast got a valuable victory with Stroud on the sidelines. It wasn’t pretty, but a perfect 5/5 kicking night from Ka’imi Fairbairn, including the overtime winner, was enough to keep them within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, and the AFC South title.
49ers keep rolling: The 49ers made quick work of their division rivals, scoring 6 touchdowns to take sole possession of the top seed in the NFC. They control their own destiny. However, with the AFC leading Ravens on tap for Week 16, their Super Bowl credentials will be tested once again.
Bills are back: Back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys have kept the Bills playoff hopes alive, after James Cook’s 179 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns carried the Bills to a precious 31-10 victory over Dallas in Week 15.
What’s wrong in Philly? Jalen Hurts has lost 3 straight games for the second time in his NFL career, after previously going 29-3 over his last 32 regular season starts. A last second Seahawks touchdown handed the Eagles a third straight loss. However, with the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants rounding out the Eagles season, they will be confident they can finish off the season on the right foot and capture the NFC East crown in the process.

Now that Week 15 is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look ahead to Week 16. There is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around this Christmas, and the value of an extra point or two in our favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the sports betting world. It can be annoying to tie up the bankroll all week. However, when it results in extra money lining your pocket, that is a sacrifice we are forced to make.

Game 1:

Detroit Lions At Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-3)

The Lions have an opportunity to win the NFC North for the first time in franchise history with a win in Minnesota, and I expect them to do just that. Jared Goff is coming off a 5-touchdown performance against the daunting Denver Broncos defense, while a quarterback carousel in Minnesota has resulted in the Vikings dropping 3 of their last 4 games. Both these teams will be desperate for a win, but I struggle to see Nick Mullens doing enough under center to keep this one close. The Lions well-rounded offense will be able to take advantage of a weak Minnesota secondary. And when Goff has time in the pocket thanks to a lackluster Vikings pass rush, he will be able to consistently place the ball where it needs to go. Detroit has scored 20+ points in 6 of their last 7 games, going a sparkling 5-2 over that span. Their offense is the epitome of consistency, while the Vikings have been anything but. Solid coaching and quality players on both sides of the ball will allow Detroit to finally taste the NFC North crown. And with the added satisfaction of securing a home playoff game by beating the defending NFC North champions on their own turf, the Lions will not let this one stay close. This line will likely climb past the critical number of 3 points in the coming days, so this is one that must be locked in immediately.

Game 2:

Indianapolis Colts At Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (-2)

For the 8th week in a row, the Colts are seeing their spread within 3 points, yet they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games, compared to Atlanta’s 2-4 record over the same span. A once punishing run game Atlanta has evaporated, as defenses have become more than happy to fill up the tackle box and trust that Desmond Ridder will be unable to beat one on one coverage down the field. Despite their 6-8 record, the Falcons still have life in both the NFC South divisional race, and the NFC Wild Card. However, Atlanta is quickly running out of time to take advantage of a fortunate set of circumstances, and they will fall short once again in Week 16. Gardner Minshew has earned the title of ‘best backup in the league,’ and will likely be starting somewhere when next season rolls around. His poise in the pocket has allowed the Colts to remain relevant in the playoff race, connecting with Michael Pittman for 78 or more yards in each of his last 5 starts. A generous run defense in Indianapolis has kept this spread reasonable, but I have absolutely no doubt the better team will prevail when it matters most. The Falcons lack the grit needed to turn the tides when things aren’t going their way, emphasized by a 9-7 loss to the lowly Panthers last week. The gap in class between these two teams is much wider than this spread suggests. And once you factor in recent form, this -2 offered with the Colts becomes a slam dunk play in Week 16.

Game 3:

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)

The Miami Dolphins are sitting perched atop the AFC East standings with a 10-4 record. However, with the Bills nipping at their heels, they cannot afford to keep dropping games. One glaring statistic has tarnished a promising season in Miami, as they are a whopping 9-1 against sub .500 teams and 0-4 against teams with winning records. Their ability to use their high-flying offensive weapons to swat aside inferior opposition has resulted in a solid record at this stage of the season. However, when Dallas comes to town, they must be careful not to take their foot off the gas if they build up a lead. While the Cowboys 3-4 road record is a stark contrast from their sparkling 7-0 home record, they still possess all the tools needed to walk into Miami and walk out with a victory. Dak Prescott will be eager to strengthen his MVP credentials. And after a lackluster showing against a vulnerable Bills defense in Week 15, he and the rest of the Cowboys offense will be eager to get back on track. Offense has won the Dolphins games, but defense will cost them a championship. While this is obviously still a regular season game, when the Dolphins are faced with intense 4th quarter situations against competent opposition, they have routinely fallen short. It’s a minimal spread, and since I expect the Cowboys to get the win, I will happily play the 1.5 spread with the surging team from Dallas.

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks

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